Top economist Paul Krugman says the US economy is growing too fast to spiral into a debt crisis | Canada News Media
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Top economist Paul Krugman says the US economy is growing too fast to spiral into a debt crisis

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  • The US won’t spiral into a debt crisis anytime soon, Paul Krugman says.
  • That’s because economic growth is larger than the interest rate on government debt.
  • Some research suggests the government’s debt levels may not matter at all, the top economist said.

The US isn’t spiraling into a debt crisis because it’s growing too fast, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman.

The top economist pointed to Fitch slashing its credit rating on US debt last week, which spooked markets and sparked a sharp sell-off in stocks. That move has lowered the faith in US debt assets, some commentators have argued – but the economy is just too strong to have an imminent debt crisis, Krugman said.

“Bottom line: Is the United States likely to face a debt crisis anytime soon, or even in the next decade or two? Almost surely not,” Krugman said in a New York Times op-ed on Friday.

That’s because a debt spiral is caused by the interest rate on government debt being significantly larger than economic growth, which isn’t the case. Even with the Fed’s aggressive hiking of interest rates over the past year to tame inflation, the rate on inflation-protected 10-year bonds hovers around 1.83%, Krugman said. Meanwhile, US GDP grew 2% over the past two quarters, according to the most recent estimates.

“So if we do face the prospect of large future increases in debt – which we do – interest payments on existing debt aren’t a major culprit,” he added.

The government’s debt servicing costs will likely hit $663 billion this year the Congressional Budget Office estimated, a small fraction of the US’s $26.8 trillion current-dollar GDP.

And though the national debt balance has topped $32 trillion this year, some research suggests the level of US debt doesn’t matter at all, Krugman said. Historically, debt crises are rare, and haven’t led to the economic catastrophe that doomsayers have warned of. France, for instance, which inflated part of its debt away in the 1920s due to falling market confidence, ended up having a prosperous decade with rapid economic growth.

It’s also rare for governments to pay off their large debt balances in the first place, Krugman said in a previous op-ed, meaning the US will likely not have to pay off its mountain of debt.

Krugman’s views are contrary to more bearish Wall Street commentators, who have warned of coming debt troubles as interest rates rose rapidly over the past year. The economy could enter a “doom loop” as debt burdens grow costly in a high interest rate environment, top economist Nouriel Roubini warned. Bank of America, meanwhile, warned there could be up to $1 trillion of corporate debt defaults if the economy faces a full-blown recession, though the bank no longer expects a downturn this year.

 

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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