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Top economist says it will take economy years to recover from COVID-19 – Yahoo Canada Finance

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The stock market has fully detached itself from the near-term economic realities in the U.S. stemming from the COVID-pandemic. But perhaps the market should be paying more attention to the state of the economy to inform its investing decisions, especially as valuations have climbed considerably from the late-March lows.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“We are not expecting the U.S. to return to pre-crisis levels for two years. Markets seem to be a little bit more optimistic than we are, and I would say other economists are as well,” warned veteran S&amp;P Global chief U.S. economist Beth Ann Bovino on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.” data-reactid=”17″>“We are not expecting the U.S. to return to pre-crisis levels for two years. Markets seem to be a little bit more optimistic than we are, and I would say other economists are as well,” warned veteran S&P Global chief U.S. economist Beth Ann Bovino on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Another 2.4 million workers filed for jobless benefits last week, according to new data from the government on Thursday. That brings the total number of new claims to more than 38 million over the past nine weeks.” data-reactid=”18″>Another 2.4 million workers filed for jobless benefits last week, according to new data from the government on Thursday. That brings the total number of new claims to more than 38 million over the past nine weeks.

“The sharp rise in continuing claims the week before illustrates that the easing of lockdowns in many states has not yet resulted in any large-scale recall to work for those currently on temporary layoff,” pointed out Capital Economics chief North American economist Paul Ashworth.

FILE – In this March 17, 2020, file photo, people wait in line for help with unemployment benefits at the One-Stop Career Center in Las Vegas. The number of out-of-work people filing new claims for jobless benefits in Nevada is closing in on 390,000 since casinos and other businesses were shuttered to prevent spread of the coronavirus. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Thursday, April 30, 2020, that more than 45,000 people filed first-time claims for unemployment benefits last week. (AP Photo/John Locher, File)

Elsewhere, in a new survey out Thursday, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for May showed the economy continuing to bump along the bottom.

The survey found that 58% of the firms polled saw a decrease in activity this month while a mere 15% reported an increase. Although the new orders component rose 45 points from April, it was still a negative 25.7% — suggesting the economy will remain under severe pressure in the months to come.

<h3 class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="‘I am a bit more nervous’” data-reactid=”33″>‘I am a bit more nervous’

Meantime, major corporations from Walmart to Target to Macy’s continue to warn about cautious unpredictable U.S. consumers. That has led them to refrain from providing financial guidance and plan businesses conservatively for the back half of 2020.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="“We are seeing an improvement,” Coca-Cola Chairman and CEO&nbsp;James Quincey&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance in an interview, when asked about the current state of the beverage giant’s business. But Quincey quickly acknowledged he is staying cautious because of the volatile nature of the pandemic.” data-reactid=”35″>“We are seeing an improvement,” Coca-Cola Chairman and CEO James Quincey told Yahoo Finance in an interview, when asked about the current state of the beverage giant’s business. But Quincey quickly acknowledged he is staying cautious because of the volatile nature of the pandemic.

Even in the face of all these concerns, the stock market has plowed forward on what may be a demented logic of future economic activity. The Nasdaq Composite is just a couple hundred points away from its late February record high (and up 4% year-to-date), powered by strong inflows into big cap tech names Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have each climbed about 5% inside of a month.

“I have to say I am a bit more nervous,” says Bovino on the economy. “So often I say when I’m nervous, maybe you should be, too.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.” data-reactid=”38″>Brian Sozzi is an editor-at-large and co-anchor of The First Trade at Yahoo Finance. Follow Sozzi on Twitter @BrianSozzi and on LinkedIn.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance” data-reactid=”39″>Read the latest financial and business news from Yahoo Finance

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit.” data-reactid=”51″>Follow Yahoo Finance on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Flipboard, SmartNews, LinkedIn, YouTube, and reddit.

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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