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Top investor: Economy ‘in terrible danger,’ overhaul crisis must be solved in days

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One of Israel’s top tech investors warned in an interview aired on Friday night that the country must solve its internal crisis over the government’s judicial overhaul “within days,” saying the Israeli economy was “in terrible danger.”

Speaking to Channel 12 news, Shlomo Dovrat, who is a co-founder and general partner at Viola Ventures, an Israeli venture capital fund with over $1.3 billion under management, said he was “deeply anxious” about the government’s judicial plans.

“I believe we’re in a dangerous moment, the likes of which I don’t remember seeing in many years,” he said.

Dovrat, who according to Channel 12 has not given an interview in 20 years, broke his silence due to his intense worry.

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“Over a period of 40 years we built a glorious economy, a spectacular high-tech industry,” Dovrat said, but the government’s plans were leading to “a danger” for the economy and society “at a level I don’t remember seeing.”

“We are seeing the risk premium for investments in Israel rising dramatically,” he said, noting that money was leaving Israel, and a large part of it would likely not return.

According to Dovrat, foreign investors “won’t invest in a country that doesn’t have certainty, that doesn’t have political stability and doesn’t have an independent justice system that can protect their property rights.”

He said Netanyahu “must take action fast.”

“The markets are voting with their feet. Billions of dollars are exiting Israel every day… In boards of companies we’re invested in, foreign investors say ‘Israel’s risk is too high now, get the money out of Israel.’ That’s what we’re hearing, not from one or two [companies]. It’s widespread,” he said.

Some Israeli tech companies have said they are planning to move their operations out of the country over the overhaul plans.

“Every day that passes and this crisis isn’t resolved we are at huge risk. The clock is ticking. We have to act and fast,” Dovrat said.

Israelis protest against government plans to overhaul the judicial system outside the Knesset, with the Bank of Israel headquarters seen in the background, February 20, 2023. (AP/Ohad Zwigenberg)

“The moment the high-tech industry leaves Israel or the economy weakens in general and foreign investors stop coming here — the cost of living will rise dramatically, interests on mortgages will rise dramatically,” he said.

He called Israel’s high-tech industry “Israel’s economic miracle,” making up 45% of exports and nearly 20% of GDP “and a huge percentage of revenue from taxes.”

“We won’t have the money for hospitals, infrastructure, health,… and of course security,” he warned.

“We don’t have time for politics… [It] can’t end in months of negotiations and a compromise at the last minute. If this process lasts months, there won’t be anything left to fix,” he said, adding that he had “never seen such concern among foreign investors.”

Dovrat also called on President Isaac Herzog to seek a compromise “within days.”

“They must act immediately. Not deliberations, not negotiations, not a pause, no preconditions. No ego games, no power games. An agreement within days. There’s no time. We’re in terrible danger,” he said.

Israelis march during a protest against plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s new government to overhaul the judicial system, in Tel Aviv, Israel, February 18, 2023. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov)

Dovrat’s interview came after a Thursday report said Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron warned ministers that an economic crisis could break out at any moment, amid mounting concerns over the government’s pursuit of sweeping changes to the judiciary, which has spooked investors and entrepreneurs in recent weeks and sparked fears of an economic downturn.

Yaron and the Finance Ministry’s chief economist Shira Greenberg were asked for their observations Thursday on the potential harm to the economy at the discussion session by Economy Minister Nir Barkat, who also reportedly relayed warnings he had heard directly from figures in the tech and business industry of serious economic fallout.

“A snowball [effect] may begin,” Greenberg reportedly responded, adding that there was “significant danger” to the economy. Earlier, Greenberg warned in a report accompanying the multi-year budget draft 2024-2027 sent to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hardline coalition government on Thursday that the judicial overhaul was “perceived by the market as damaging the strength and independence of state institutions and increases uncertainty in the investment environment.”

“This may harm economic activity and in particular private investments,” she wrote.

Netanyahu has repeatedly waved off such warnings, including on Thursday when he said those making them were driven by political motivations and hysteria and insisted they would be proven wrong.

In her report, Greenberg cited studies that found a positive relationship between the strength and independence of state institutions and economic growth, scope of private investments, and in particular the scope of foreign direct investments.

“Also, the credit rating agencies are likely to react to these developments,” Greenberg cautioned.

Shira Greenberg, chief economist of the Finance Ministry, attends a press conference at the Finance Ministry office in Jerusalem, September 23, 2019. (Flash90)

According to a separate report Thursday by Israeli data and credit firm BDI, one in five large companies based in Israel has seriously considered moving money out of the country or has already done so. The study, cited by Channel 12, surveyed more than 900 companies across sectors such as tech and real estate, with almost 60% reporting that their revenues took a hit from recent market jitters and a weaker shekel that makes imported goods more expensive and hikes consumer prices.

As the government passed initial votes on legislation this week marking the first significant steps in its divisive effort to shake up the judiciary, the shekel depreciated to the weakest level in three years against the US dollar and Tel Aviv shares declined.

The vote came despite fierce opposition and massive protests against the government’s plans, which would grant it total control over the appointment of judges, including to the High Court, all but eliminate the High Court’s ability to review and strike down legislation and allow politicians to appoint — and fire — their own legal advisers.

Over the past month, the shekel has lost over 7% of its value amid the mass protests and the dampened market mood.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu embraces Justice Minister Yariv Levin after a vote on the government’s judicial overhaul plans in the Knesset early on February 21, 2023. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

In his comments at the discussion session on the state budget, Barkat — a former tech entrepreneur and venture capitalist who is a member of the ruling Likud party — relayed warnings of serious economic fallout by leading Israeli business figures whom he said told him that the government “can shred the budget” as it “won’t have the money to implement it anyway.”

“The Israeli economy is going to crash,” he said he was told.

Barkat said he was in favor of the judicial overhaul but urged for negotiations and dialogue. “Even if we don’t get everything we are after, it won’t be so terrible,” he reportedly said.

At the session, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, whose far-right Religious Zionism party is one of the driving forces behind the shakeup of the judiciary, said the hard-right government has taken into account that things “may develop in negative directions” with a drop in government revenues. “Therefore we need to be responsible with the budget,” Smotrich was quoted as saying.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, left, and Economy Minister Nir Barkat during a press conference at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, January 25, 2023. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

The budget discussion session came days after the central bank hiked its key lending rate to the highest level since 2008, as it seeks to battle inflation and a weakening shekel.

Yaron reportedly called an emergency meeting late Wednesday to discuss stabilizing the country’s financial picture after this week’s market rollercoaster.

On Wednesday, former Bank of Israel chief Jacob Frenkel joined a growing list of economists inside and outside Israel to sound the alarm over the judicial overhaul.

Frenkel, who served as bank governor from 1991 to 2000, urged the government in an interview with Channel 12 on Wednesday to rethink its plans, warning that “irresponsible decisions could ruin it all.”

“We have a situation of total uncertainty: economic uncertainty, political uncertainty and a lack of certainty in institutions, which affects all aspects of the economy,” he said.

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The Crypto Bull Run Is Igniting The Web3 Creator Economy – Forbes

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Protection and monetization of digital IP has long been one of the most promising areas for Web3 disruption, offering to better protect IP while returning more value to creators. Development to date has focused on leveraging the capabilities of NFTs to introduce digital scarcity while using smart contracts to better enforce the distribution of royalties. Nevertheless, it’s fair to say that no solution has yet proven compelling enough to attract significant adoption from the established creator economy, which was reported by Goldman Sachs
GS
in 2023 to be worth around $250 billion.

The bear market of the last two years has undoubtedly played a part, with Crunchbase stating that funding for Web3 projects “cratered” by 74% year over year in 2023, making it more difficult for projects to advance their roadmaps.

However, over the same period, a new threat to the creator economy has emerged: The growing prevalence of AI-based tools. With a new bull market now underway, has the moment arrived for Web3 creator tools?

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A Sea Change For Creators

AI is a double-edged sword that has the potential to both make and break the burgeoning creator economy. Generative AI paves the way for a new wave of creators and modes of creation; however, the human ramifications could be significant. Traditional creators, including the New York Times
NYT
, are already mounting lawsuits over the unfair use of their work to train algorithms. Plus, there’s the impending risk that human creativity could get drowned out by a wave of AI-generated content.

There’s also the question of monetization. Each successive wave of digitalization tends to strip value from creators, leading to concerns that the rise of AI will further erode the ability of creatives to monetize their work.

While many are still debating the scale of the AI threat, creators are seeking any solution to better protect their work and future earning opportunities, while regulators and policy hawks are keen to see more transparency in AI-generated content. The fact that this is an election year in dozens of countries where AI-based content is already playing a headline role also adds a political and democratic imperative to the equation.

Reigniting The Web3 Creator Fire

The new bull market in crypto is now giving fresh impetus to projects and investors who understand the opportunity for Web3-based creator tools but have been waiting for the right time to move into the market. Korea’s largest VC firm, Hashed, recently put the creator economy and protection of intellectual property at the top of its 2024 call for startups, and the theme will be central to this year’s Korean Blockchain Week (KBW). The flagship KBW: Impact conference event is organized by FACTBLOCK and co-hosted by Hashed.

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I reached out to Simon Kim, CEO and Managing Partner at Hashed, who shared, “We foresee that integrating content into Web3-based creator applications will enhance user retention and drive sustainable growth, fundamentally transforming the overall user experience. The progression of AI technology will be a catalyst in accelerating this trend, further bridging the gap between innovative content creation and blockchain technology. Blockchain is a pivotal force in redefining the landscape of content creation, offering novel pathways for IP management and monetization.”

Even AI Creators Need A Hand

Along with names such as a16z and Paris Hilton’s VC fund, Hashed also participated in last year’s $54 million round for Story Protocol, one of the standout successes in an otherwise flat funding year. Story Protocol is a “programmable IP layer” that aims to simplify the enforcement of rights, allow creative remixing, and streamline the monetization process for both original and subsequent creations while minimizing the operational barriers that often hinder the creative industry.

Perhaps somewhat paradoxically, the project recently made headlines thanks to a partnership that will allow user-generated AI models created on Ritual to be recorded and accredited to their creators with each use.

However, competition to capture the Web3 opportunity for the creator economy is rapidly heating up across the space.

In December, Web3 gaming giant Animoca Brands confirmed the company’s commitment to supporting the creator economy and advancing Web3 over the coming year. Although primarily known for its game portfolio, Animoca also operates an ed-tech platform that enables co-publishing rights for educational content, allowing creators to distribute monetized content directly to students. The CEO highlighted the lack of control and monetization opportunities for creators in the Web2 space.

From Piracy To IP Protection

Many might remember Limewire, perhaps best known as the scourge of noughties musicians. In 2007, the Electronic Frontier Foundation estimated that it was on one in three computers to obtain pirated MP3 files. However, the project recently launched a Web3 creator studio on Polygon
MATIC
, initially focused on imagery but with plans to expand to music and audio files.

Users can access a range of AI tools to manipulate files or create new works. All creations are minted as an NFT
NFT
on the Polygon blockchain, while royalties are paid out automatically based on the use or sale of the content. Ultimately, Limewire could go from being a facilitator of pirated music to a monetization tool for musicians: Quite the redemption arc, particularly so in this new era when the Web2 streaming model has evolved to hurt musicians’ revenues.

However, some are taking the royalty payments a layer deeper to mitigate future protocol risk. Projects including Enjin and Rarible have embedded royalty payment functionality into the blockchain programming itself, meaning that its application-agnostic and royalty payments should continue uninterrupted for as long as the blockchain is in operation.

As these developments are still in their infancy, it will be intriguing to see how they are received by a creator economy that’s grappling with the full impact of AI tools. However, the combined factors of a new bull market, AI’s opportunities and challenges, and the chance to better monetize and protect IP amid declining revenues on Web2 platforms mean that the timing for Web3 creator tools to make a strategic market entry could not be better.

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Britain's economy went into recession last year, official figures confirm – The Globe and Mail

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People walk over London Bridge, in London, on Oct. 25, 2023.SUSANNAH IRELAND/Reuters

Britain’s economy entered a shallow recession last year, official figures confirmed on Thursday, leaving Prime Minister Rishi Sunak with a challenge to reassure voters that the economy is safe with him before an election expected later this year.

Gross domestic product shrank by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter and by 0.3 per cent in the fourth, unchanged from preliminary estimates, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Thursday.

The figures will be disappointing for Mr. Sunak, who has been accused by the opposition Labour Party – far ahead in opinion polls – of overseeing “Rishi’s recession.”

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“The weak starting point for GDP this year means calendar-year growth in 2024 is likely to be limited to less than 1 per cent,” said Martin Beck, chief economic adviser at EY ITEM Club.

“However, an acceleration in momentum this year remains on the cards.”

Britain’s economy has shown signs of starting 2024 on a stronger footing, with monthly GDP growth of 0.2 per cent in January, and unofficial surveys suggesting growth continued in February and March.

Tax cuts announced by finance minister Jeremy Hunt and expectations of interest-rate cuts are likely to help the economy in 2024.

However, Britain remains one of the slowest countries to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. At the end of last year, its economy was just 1 per cent bigger than in late 2019, with only Germany faring worse among Group of Seven nations.

The economy grew just 0.1 per cent in all of 2023, its weakest performance since 2009, excluding the peak-pandemic year of 2020.

GDP per person, which has not grown since early 2022, fell by 0.6 per cent in the fourth quarter and 0.7 per cent across 2023.

Sterling was little changed against the dollar and the euro after the data release.

The Bank of England (BOE) has said inflation is moving toward the point where it can start cutting rates. It expects the economy to grow by just 0.25 per cent this year, although official budget forecasters expect a 0.8-per-cent expansion.

BOE policy maker Jonathan Haskel said in an interview reported in Thursday’s Financial Times that rate cuts were “a long way off,” despite dropping his advocacy of a rise at last week’s meeting.

Thursday’s figures from the ONS also showed 0.7 per cent growth in households’ real disposable income, flat in the previous quarter.

Thomas Pugh, an economist at consulting firm RSM, said the increase could prompt consumers to increase their spending and support the economy.

“Consumer confidence has been improving gradually over the last year … as the impact of rising real wages filters through into people’s pockets, even though consumers remain cautious overall,” Mr. Pugh said.

Britain’s current account deficit totalled £21.18-billion ($36.21-billion) in the fourth quarter, slightly narrower than a forecast of £21.4-billion ($36.6-billion) shortfall in a Reuters poll of economists, and equivalent to 3.1 per cent of GDP, up from 2.7 per cent in the third quarter.

The underlying current account deficit, which strips out volatile trade in precious metals, expanded to 3.9 per cent of GDP.

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How will a shrinking population affect the global economy? – Al Jazeera English

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Falling fertility rates could bring about a transformational demographic shift over the next 25 years.

It has been described as a demographic catastrophe.

The Lancet medical journal warns that a majority of countries do not have a high enough fertility rate to sustain their population size by the end of the century.

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The rate of the decline is uneven, with some developing nations seeing a baby boom.

The shift could have far-reaching social and economic impacts.

Enormous population growth since the industrial revolution has put enormous pressure on the planet’s limited resources.

So, how does the drop in births affect the economy?

And regulators in the United States and the European Union crack down on tech monopolies.

The gender gap in tech narrows.

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