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Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Ottawa Senators – Game #3 Preview, Projected Lines & TV Info

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With Matt Murray on LTIR, Ilya Samsonov will start his second consecutive as the Maple Leafs open the 2022-23 Battle of Ontario season series at Scotiabank Arena (7:00 p.m. EST, Sportsnet). 

Never a dull moment in Leafs land, but not something we can act particularly surprised by either given Murray’s injury history.

Tonight’s opponent, the Senators, have been a popular pick as an upstart playoff team in the Eastern Conference this season thanks to their additions of Claude Giroux (via free agency) and Alex Debrincat (via trade) up front, the graduation of highly-touted defense prospect Jake Sanderson, as well as the continued maturation of their young nucleus in Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Drake Batherson, and Josh Norris. MLHS’ Alex Drain summed up the mix of promise and uncertainty that surrounds the Senators’ rebuild in his recent Atlantic Division season preview:

A lot of people will focus on the huge moves that the Senators made, inking the second-most discussed free agent contract and executing the second-most discussed trade in Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat, respectively. I get that. Those are the shiny new toys, but GM Pierre Dorion also dropped the dough for the toys they already had, locking up the existing core.

Over the course of the last year, Dorion gave 7x$8.2 M to Brady Tkachuk, 8x$7.95 M to Josh Norris, 8x$8.35 M to Tim Stützle, and 6x$4.98 M to Drake Batherson. That’s nearly $30 M doled out to four forwards! If you want to toss in Thomas Chabot’s 8x$8 M deal signed a few years back, you have close to half the cap given to five players, all of whom are signed for at least the next five seasons.

I’m not against the strategy of allotting a lot of the cap to only a few guys on principle. You need elite players to win the Cup! If those guys are Stamkos/Hedman/Kucherov/ Vasilevskiy or Makar/MacKinnon/Rantanen/Landeskog, I can get behind it. Those guys are all top 50-100 players in the league, including several of the top Hart contenders in a given year. But none of those Senators players right now are anywhere close to that level.

I like several of those players, to be clear. But are Norris and Tkachuk and Stützle in the same conversation as any of those forwards? No. Is Chabot in the same sentence as Hedman or Makar? No. Chabot’s deal is fine in the abstract given comparable contracts (Morgan Rielly, Darnell Nurse, etc), but this is a lot of multi-year, high AAV deals given to non-elite players.

Pierre Dorion made a bet that this core will grow into one that contains at least one or two elite players. We need to see signs of that from at least a few guys this year and that question is tied pretty closely to whether this squad makes the playoffs.

With two Leafs vs. Senators games tabbed for late March/early April in Ottawa (where there is always a great split-crowd atmosphere), playoff implications on the line would certainly make for a fun reanimation of the Battle of Ontario, but there are some big question marks for the Senators to answer in order to make that a reality.

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With a weak defense on paper entering the season (Travis Hamonic is currently on the second pairing, and rumours swirled all offseason about their interest in Jakob Chychrun in order to address the need), how quickly can Sanderson adjust to the league and provide them with a stud to anchor the second pairing behind Thomas Chabot? Are there third-year steps forward forthcoming from Stutzle and Norris down the middle, where the Senators are also hoping 21-year-old Shane Pinto is ready for prime time? How much does the soon-to-be 35-year-old Giroux have left in the tank (23 points in 18 games for Florida, plus eight in 10 in the playoffs, augurs well)? Can Anton Forsberg follow up a promising breakout season at age 29 (46 games, .917 save percentage) and form a formidable 1A/1B tandem with their new veteran goaltending addition, Cam Talbot?

The Senators opened their season in Buffalo on Thursday with a 4-1 loss in which they were unable to solve former long-time Ottawa goaltender Craig Anderson more than once despite 36 shots on goal, three breakaways for Stutzle, and four power plays in the opening 40 minutes. After Brady Tkachuk opened the scoring halfway through the first, the Senators conceded twice inside three minutes in the second period due to missed assignments in front of their net, and two Sabres empty netters in the final minute rounded out the scoring.

100 miles north, the Maple Leafs kept the wolves at bay with a bounce-back win over Washington in their home-opener that included contributions from their top power-play unit, their top line, and their new third line of Engvall – Kerfoot – Jarnkrok. Goaltender Ilya Samsonov, after a shaky first period, settled in and shut the door the rest of the way.


Game Day Quotes

DJ Smith on the Battle of Ontario, the Maple Leafs‘ strengths as a team, and the two rivals bringing out the best in one another:

In the Atlantic or in the Eastern Conference, I would say they’re the favourites at this point. They play the right way. They check. They play with lots of structure. They can score. They are ready to win right now. If you are going to beat them, you are going to have to be at your best. That is absolutely what we need.

When you go into Toronto and there are so many guys from Ontario or Canada and it’s Hockey Night In Canada, it is something special. You always get the best game when it is Hockey Night In Canada.

For us, right now, we are chasing them. Let’s be honest: They are ahead of where we are in the development. They are on the cusp of trying to win right now, and we want to be that guy.

We know what kind of players they have with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares. We have some good young players ourselves. We’ll be ready when we play them. We have to be ready to check because they can flat-out score. If you are going to beat them, you are going to have to defend.

One thing I think they don’t get enough credit for is how they defend. I don’t know if that was to be said a few years ago, but they don’t give you much. We are going to have to be willing to play that exact same way. If you are willing to check and play that 2-1 mentality, I think we will have a chance.

Sheldon Keefe on the matchup against the Senators and the strides Ottawa is looking to take this season:

I was just looking at their forward group today. With the way both teams stack up, they have two lines that can really score and two lines that can check and play real hard. The way that sets up makes a lot of sense there.

They have gone through their rebuilding and development stage. Now they are in the hunt to make the playoffs. They believe in the moves that they have made. Clearly, they have added depth to their forward group.

There are some similarities there for sure. Any time we play Ottawa, we know we are in a game. This season, with the expectations and excitement around their team and what we have to go with that, they should make for spirited games.

Alex Kerfoot on the challenge presented by the Senators:

They brought in some guys this summer and the roster looks improved, but they play us hard whenever we’ve played them in the last couple of years. They have given us good games. They have beaten us at key moments in the season. We know we are going to get their best coming in here. We’re ready for it.

Kerfoot on Keefe labeling his line a “hybrid” unit that can be defensively responsible and chip in offensively:

That is probably pretty accurate given the deployment of the other three lines. That is kind of what we’re going to need to do. Matty and John’s lines are both going to produce a lot offensively. Kampfer historically has done a really good job of soaking up a lot of the d-zone starts. I think we can kind of fit somewhere in between.

We want to chip in offensively, but we also want to be very responsible and reliable defensively, make it hard on other teams, and try to play in the offensive zone as much as possible.

Kerfoot on Ilya Samsonov’s debut game on Thursday vs. Washington:

He played really well, I thought. A couple went in on him early in the game, but he just settled right in. He has a lot of confidence in himself. No panic whatsoever. That resonated throughout our group. He gave us a chance to come back in the game and made some big saves down the stretch.


Toronto Maple Leafs Projected Lines

Forwards
#58 Michael Bunting – #34 Auston Matthews – #16 Mitch Marner
#88 William Nylander – #91 John Tavares – #62 Denis Malgin
#47 Pierre Engvall – #15 Alex Kerfoot – #19 Calle Järnkrok
#12 Zach Aston-Reese – #64 David Kampf – #96 Nicolas Aubé-Kubel

Defensemen
#44 Morgan Rielly – #78 TJ Brodie
#8 Jake Muzzin – #3 Justin Holl
#55 Mark Giordano – #38 Rasmus Sandin

Goaltenders
Starter: #35 Ilya Samsonov
#50 Erik Källgren

Injured: Matt Murray, Timothy Liljegren


Ottawa Senators Projected Lines

Forwards
#7 Brady Tkachuk – #18 Tim Stutzle – #19 Drake Batherson
#12 Alex Debrincat – #9 Josh Norris – #28 Claude Giroux
#14 Tyler Motte – #57 Shane Pinto – #21 Mathieu Joseph
#45 Parker Kelly – #47 Mark Kastelic – #16 Austin Watson

Defensemen
#72 Thomas Chabot – #2 Artem Zub
#85 Jake Sanderson – #23 Travis Hamonic
#26 Erik Brannstrom – #22 Nikita Zaitsev

Goaltenders
Starter: #31 Anton Forsberg
Magnus Hellberg

Scratched: Nick Holden
Injured: 
Cam Talbot

 

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Need to Know: Bruins at Maple Leafs | Game 3 | Boston Bruins – NHL.com

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Familiar Territory

James van Riemsdyk has played his fair share of playoff contests here in Toronto – but all of them have come in blue and white. On Wednesday night, he would be on the other side for the first time if he indeed makes his Bruins postseason debut, which appeared to be a strong possibility based on the Black & Gold’s morning skate.

“It’s always special to play in this building,” said van Riemsdyk, who played in 20 postseason games with Toronto, including nine at Scotiabank Arena. “In this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun. This time of year is always amazing, no matter where you’re at – if you’re at a 500-seat arena or a rink with all the tradition and history like this. It’s always fun and always a great opportunity to get in there.”

van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch for the first two games of this series, following a trend across the second half of the regular season, during which he sat out several games.

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“Playoff time of year is always the best time of year,” said van Riemsdyk, who has 20 goals and 31 points in 71 career playoff games between Philadelphia and Toronto. “Obviously, in this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun – two fun buildings to play in. You cherish every opportunity you get.

“This time of year, you learn that along the way, it’s all about the team. Whatever the team’s asking you to do, that’s always got to be your mindset and approach…you stay at it every day and just take it one day at a time.”

Montgomery said that if van Riemsdyk does re-enter the lineup, he’ll be looking for the veteran winger to help the Bruins’ offensive game. He also complimented van Riemsdyk’s professionalism throughout a trying second half.

“I guess getting his stick on more pucks,” Montgomery said on what he wants to see from van Riemsdyk. “We’ve talked about it a lot of times internally. Him and [Kevin] Shattenkirk have been great. They’re true pros. Every day come to work, come to get better. It’s not an easy situation, but he’s been great.”

van Riemsdyk concurred with his coach’s sentiments about helping Boston’s offensive attack, saying that he’ll be aiming to be around the net as much as possible.

“I think you’ve got to stay true to who you are as a player and play with good details and manage the game well and play to your strengths as a player,” he said. “This time of year, being around the net is always an important trait. You see all the goals being scored, it’s all within 5-10 feet of the net. That’s an area that I pride myself on, so going to be doing my best to get there and have an impact there.”

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NHL teams, take note: Alexandar Georgiev is proof that anything can happen in the playoffs

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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.

Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.

Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.

At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.

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Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?

He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.

There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.

(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)

By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.

That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.

It just wouldn’t have been correct.

The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. PanthersLightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. BruinsMaple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden KnightsStars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.

None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.

Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.

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"Laugh it off": Evander Kane says Oilers won’t take the bait against Kings | Offside

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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.

Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.

All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.

That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.

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“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.

“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”

Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.

“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.

“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.

“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”

There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.

 

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