Tory leader widens gap over Trudeau on economy in Canada poll | Canada News Media
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Tory leader widens gap over Trudeau on economy in Canada poll

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(Bloomberg) — The leader of Canada’s Conservative Party has opened up a bigger lead among voters on the question of who would be the best economic manager, underscoring the political challenges faced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

About 30% of respondents in a recent Nanos Research Group survey for Bloomberg say they trust Pierre Poilievre the most among national party leaders to support economic growth. That’s a gap of more than 10 points over Trudeau, who’s the first choice of just 19%.

It’s the widest lead yet for Poilievre on that question. In April 2023, he led Trudeau by just three points.

But nearly a quarter of Canadians say they don’t trust any of the country’s main political leaders to support the economy.

The Nanos poll also shows restrictive interest rates are still weighing on Canadian consumers, even after the Bank of Canada cut its policy rate last month: 63% say higher borrowing costs are having a negative impact on their personal spending, about the same as a year ago. The financial strain is greatest among Canadians under 55 years of age.

That spells trouble for Trudeau’s incumbent Liberal government. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the central bank to lower its policy interest rate to 3.25% by September 2025 — just before an expected election — suggesting that the pressure on Canadians’ wallets is likely to ease only gradually.

Affordability is a top concern for Canadians, and while the pace of yearly inflation has decelerated to below 3% in recent months, price increases since the pandemic have substantially reduced purchasing power and higher borrowing costs have boosted debt and interest payments.

According to a Bank of Canada report earlier this year, about half of mortgages are held by borrowers who haven’t yet faced higher rates because their payments were fixed for five years. When they renew those mortgages, many will be dealing with significantly higher payments — adding to the number of Canadians impacted by the run-up in borrowing costs.

Poilievre says he’ll shrink the size of the government, cut taxes for working-class and middle-class households, and create incentives that ensure more homes are built. He has also blamed the budget deficit for making inflation worse, and promised to find savings.

Still, the Tories have yet to fully outline the specifics of their economic plan, and their pledges include many generic statements like “cutting red tape”.

The telephone and online poll of 1,018 Canadians was conducted between June 28 and July 3. The poll has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

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Statistics Canada reports real GDP grew 0.2% in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says real gross domestic product grew 0.2 per cent in July, following essentially no change in June, helped by strength in the retail trade sector.

The agency says the growth came as services-producing industries grew 0.2 per cent for the month.

The retail trade sector was the largest contributor to overall growth in July as it gained one per cent, helped by the motor vehicles and parts dealers subsector which gained 2.8 per cent.

The public sector aggregate, which includes the educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration sectors, gained 0.3 per cent, while the finance and insurance sector rose 0.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, goods-producing industries gained 0.1 per cent in July as the utilities sector rose 1.3 per cent and the manufacturing sector grew 0.3 per cent.

Statistics Canada’s early estimate for August suggests real GDP for the month was essentially unchanged, as increases in oil and gas extraction and the public sector were offset by decreases in manufacturing and transportation and warehousing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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S&P/TSX composite tops 24,000 points for first time, U.S. markets also rise Thursday

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index closed above 24,000 for the first time Thursday as strength in base metals and other sectors outweighed losses in energy, while U.S. markets also rose and the S&P 500 notched another record as well.

“Another day, another record,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.

“The path of least resistance continues to be higher.”

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 127.95 points at 24,033.83.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 260.36 points at 42,175.11. The S&P 500 index was up 23.11 points at 5,745.37, while the Nasdaq composite was up 108.09 points at 18,190.29.

Markets continue to be optimistic about an economic soft landing, said Kourkafas, after the U.S. Federal Reserve last week announced an outsized cut to its key interest rate following months of speculation about when it would start easing policy.

Economic data Thursday added to the story that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite higher rates, said Kourkafas.

The U.S. economy grew at a three-per-cent annual rate in the second quarter, one report said, picking up from the first quarter of the year. Another report showed fewer U.S. workers applied for unemployment benefits last week.

The data shows “the economy remains on strong footing while the Fed is pivoting now in a decisive way towards an easier policy,” said Kourkafas.

The Fed’s decisive move gave investors more reason to believe that a soft landing is still the “base case scenario,” he said, “and likely reduces the downside risks for a recession by having the Fed moving too late or falling behind the curve.”

North of the border, the TSX usually gets a boost from Wall St. strength, said Kourkafas, but on Thursday the index also reflected some optimism of its own as the Bank of Canada has already cut rates three times to address weakening in the economy.

“The Bank of Canada likely now will be emboldened by the Fed,” he said.

“They didn’t want to move too far ahead of the Fed, and now that the Fed moved in a bigger-than-expected way, that provides more room for the Bank of Canada to cut as aggressively as needed to support the economy, given that inflation is within the target range.”

The TSX has also been benefiting from strength in materials after China’s central bank announced several measures meant to support the company’s economy, said Kourkafas.

However, energy stocks dragged on the Canadian index as oil prices fell Thursday following a report that Saudi Arabia was preparing to abandon its unofficial US$100-per-barrel price target for crude as it prepares to increase its output.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.22 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$2.02 at US$67.67 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down seven cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$10.20 at US$2,694.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 15 cents at US$4.64 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stocks also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal sector, while U.S. stock markets were also higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was 143.00 points at 24,048.88.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 174.22 points at 42,088.97. The S&P 500 index was up 10.23 points at 5,732.49, while the Nasdaq composite was up 30.02 points at 18,112.23.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.23 cents US compared with 74.28 cents US on Wednesday.

The November crude oil contract was down US$1.68 at US$68.01 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down six cents at US$2.75 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$4.40 at US$2,689.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up 13 cents at US$4.62 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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