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Tracking omicron: Canadian scientists race to understand new variant – CBC News

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Canadian scientists are racing to understand more about the threat of the omicron variant — how fast it spreads, whether it causes more or less severe illness, and if it can escape previous immunity to COVID-19 — but it could take weeks before a full picture emerges.

There have been dozens of suspected and confirmed cases of omicron reported throughout Canada in recent days, but several have no known link to international travel and have prompted concerns the variant could already be driving outbreaks here.

Health officials in London, Ont., confirmed omicron is now linked to a cluster of at least 40 COVID-19 cases in the city associated with schools, child care centres and a church, with 171 high-risk close contacts identified. 

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And countries such as South Africa, Denmark and England are already reporting widespread community transmission of the variant, with growing evidence that omicron was already spreading in Europe before it was identified by researchers in southern Africa. 

Dozens of suspected and confirmed cases of omicron have been reported throughout Canada in recent days, but several have no known link to international travel and have prompted concerns the variant could already be driving outbreaks here. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Canadian labs better prepared for omicron 

But the capacity to analyze this new variant and quickly share information about it both in Canada and globally has grown dramatically from a year ago, when the alpha and beta variants of concern first emerged.

“The most important thing for Canadians to know is that we have spent more than a year building the capacity for genomic surveillance,” said Catalina Lopez-Correa, executive director of The Canadian COVID Genomics Network (CanCOGeN). 

“But it’s really early days for us to predict the clinical outcomes, the transmissibility, also we don’t know if this variant will be as fast taking over like delta … all this we can only see with time.”

Marc-André Langlois, a molecular virologist at the University of Ottawa who heads the Coronavirus Variants Rapid Response Network (CoVaRR-Net), says labs across the country are working tirelessly to conduct experiments on omicron. 

“What’s changed is the fact that we’ve managed to bring our academic laboratory assets together,” Langlois said. “We have epidemiologists, we have modellers, we have immunologists, virologists and they’ve all come together.” 

Guillaume Bourque, director of bioinformatics at the McGill Genome Centre in Montreal, says Canada is also now able to act on the data more quickly.

“Now we have the system in place,” Bourque said. “We want to make it available to public health and to the scientific community as fast as possible, so that people can really start working on trying to understand the variant and then give advice to public health in terms of the best approach to try to contain it.”

Langlois says that the early data coming out of southern Africa on omicron is useful — but limited in scope.

“That snapshot is very, very different to the Canadian landscape. So the information we have now is indicative, but it’s not a true reflection of what’s going to happen when this variant spreads in Canada,” he said. “This is why we need a Canadian network to look at the Canadian situation.”

WATCH | Spike in COVID-19 levels in South Africa as omicron variant spreads:

South Africa sees spike in COVID-19 cases as omicron variant spreads

4 days ago

Duration 2:02

The omicron variant is driving a sharp increase in COVID-19 cases across South Africa. Scientists believe the variant is more transmissible, and may even bypass acquired immunity in some people who have recovered from COVID-19. 2:02

Langlois said the first tests will look at whether antibodies from COVID-19 vaccines will still neutralize the virus compared to other variants, but figuring out how much of an impact omicron could have on vaccine effectiveness at a population level will take time. 

“We’re talking about maybe two, three more weeks to get some neutralizing data from the blood of Canadians,” he said. 

Not enough data to ‘speculate’ on omicron impact yet

But Canadian scientists aren’t just looking on Canadian soil for answers — they’re also poring over hints from around the world about the impact omicron could have here. 

Angela Rasmussen, a virologist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization (VIDO) at the University of Saskatchewan, says epidemiologic data from documented omicron cases in Canada and globally will be key.

“We’re looking at the number of breakthrough infections that occur, looking at the number of people who’ve been vaccinated, who end up not only with infection with the omicron variant but also in the hospital,” she said. 

“We are reliant on these studies to determine really whether the vaccines will remain effective — including protecting against severe disease caused by omicron.” 

Another way scientists are understanding more about how omicron spreads is by experimenting with the virus in other species using challenge studies, where animal models are vaccinated and then infected with the variant to determine how severe their illness is. 

“We’re looking to see what type of clinical manifestations this variant causes in laboratory animals and if in laboratory animals this particular variant can transmit easily,” said Alyson Kelvin, a virologist at the Canadian Center for Vaccinology and VIDO in Saskatoon.

“Those are key evaluations that need to occur before we can really speculate anything about this variant.” 

People travel at Pearson International Airport during the COVID-19 pandemic in Toronto on Friday. New travel testing and restrictions have been put in place due to the omicron variant. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)

Could omicron overtake delta in Canada?  

Delta remains the dominant variant in Canada, but if early speculation about omicron being more transmissible and causing less severe disease holds true, experts say we could be looking at a very different epidemic picture in Canada in the coming weeks and months. 

“To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if it does take off because if it’s like delta, the main thing we can do is slow down progression,” said Bourque. 

“We need to learn as much as we can from experiments that we’ll be doing here on those samples, but also from other colleagues from all over the world.” 

Bourque says Canadian scientists can piece together a better picture of omicron in the coming days, which will help  “buy ourselves a few weeks” to make the most educated decision possible going forward on how best to mitigate potential spread.

“What concerns I think a lot of scientists, including myself, is that we’re seeing omicron slowly overtaking delta in southern parts of Africa. So at least over there, it looks like it is more transmissible than delta,” Langlois said. 

“Will that hold true for Canada and the northern hemisphere? We don’t know. But it is likely to be more transmissible.” 

Delta remains the dominant variant in Canada, but if premature speculation about omicron being more transmissible and causing less severe disease holds true, experts say we could be looking at a very different epidemic picture in Canada soon. (Ben Nelms/CBC)

‘Concerning’ mutations don’t tell whole story

Omicron contains more than 30 mutations in the spike protein alone, the part of the coronavirus which helps it enter human cells, some of which are associated with resistance to neutralization from antibodies. 

But scientists are urging caution before drawing too much from the limited data on the real world impact of omicron to date.

“Those mutations are concerning, but we had several different variants across this pandemic that had mutations in very concerning sites and they didn’t end up being highly transmissible or more pathogenic,” said Lopez-Correa. 

Kelvin says just because a variant has concerning mutations, does not mean it will necessarily take off — especially in the face of other variants like delta.

“The beta variant, which was first identified in South Africa, had probably the lowest amount of neutralization from either vaccine antibodies or antibodies from people who’ve recovered from COVID-19,” she said. 

“But that’s not the variant that we saw that spread around the world.” 

Until we know more from laboratory tests and real world data in highly vaccinated populations, speculation about the impact omicron could have in Canada and around the world should be weighed carefully. 

“Yes, this variant is concerning. Yes it will likely be more resistant to neutralization. But is this variant a monster? Probably not. ​​The vaccines will work against this variant,” said Langlois. 

“To what extent? That’s the question.” 

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1 dead, 2 critically injured after car crash in Montreal

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Montreal

Three people are in hospital with critical injuries after their vehicle crashed into a tree. Police believe they might be connected to two drive-by shootings that took place early Thursday morning.

2 drive-by shootings also took place overnight

an SPVM car near a taped-off crime scene
Montreal police are investigating a car crash possibly linked to two drive-by shootings. (Mathieu Wagner/Radio-Canada)

Urgences-santé say one person died and two others were critically injured after their vehicle hit a tree in the Rosemont neighbourhood.

Montreal police believe the crash may be linked to two drive-by shootings early Thursday morning.

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The first happened around 5 a.m. on Pie-IX Boulevard. Police say a car was shot at repeatedly and the driver, a 41-year-old man, was injured in the upper body. He was transported to hospital, but his life is not in danger, say police.

Shortly afterward, shots were reported in the Plateau Mont-Royal borough, near the intersection of Saint-Joseph Boulevard and Henri-Julien Avenue. No one was injured.

Police say they are investigating to determine if there is a connection between the collision and the shootings. Montreal police spokesperson Jean-Pierre Brabant says it’s possible those in the vehicle were involved in the shootings.

The province’s independent police watchdog is now involved.

with files from Chloë Ranaldi

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Pakistan airline crew sought asylum in Canada: spokesperson – CTV News

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Typically, Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) flight attendants who arrive in Toronto stay at a hotel overnight, meet back up with their crew the next day and then fly to their next destination.

But increasingly often, PIA attendants aren’t showing up, the airline says. According to PIA, at least eight flight attendants disappeared over the last year and a half.

They have abandoned their jobs and are believed to have sought asylum in Canada, a spokesperson for the government-owned airline says.

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Increased occurrences

Abdullah Hafeez Khan said at least eight flight attendants “have gone missing” after flying to Pearson International Airport in Toronto. He said these incidents have been happening over the last 10 years, but are now occurring more frequently.

“Since probably October of 2022, the number of the people that have opted asylum has increased tremendously,” Khan said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca from Karachi, Pakistan, where the airline is based.

“None of those crew members that disappeared in the last one-and-a-half years have come back. So they were granted asylum for one way or the other, and that probably has encouraged others to do so.”

The missing employees were fired immediately and lost their company benefits, Khan said.

Why did they flee?

Khan said he could only speculate as to why the flight attendants would flee.

The Canadian government underscored the volatile situation in Pakistan, warning in a travel advisory of a “high threat of terrorism,” along with threats of civil unrest, sectarian violence and kidnapping.

“The security situation is fragile and unpredictable,” the Canadian travel advisory reads. “Incidents are typically attributed to extremism, ethnic divisions, sectarian strife, regional political disputes and the situation in neighbouring Afghanistan.”

It added that many deaths and injuries have occurred from bombings, shootings and other terrorist attacks at a wide range of targets.

Since Khan isn’t in contact with any of the missing employees, he says, he assumes they decided to seek asylum in Canada for economic and social reasons.

“So I naturally assumed that all of them have been given asylum because I don’t think they would be living there illegally,” he said, adding they may already have family connections in Canada who can support them.

In this June 8, 2013, photo, a Pakistan International Airlines plane moments before take off from the Benazir Bhutto airport in Islamabad, Pakistan. (AP Photo/Anjum Naveed)

‘PR crisis’

Khan called the flight attendants’ disappearances a “PR crisis” for PIA that is “bad” for business amid a crew shortage.

The airline is in talks with the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) and Pakistani law enforcement agencies to potentially create a “legal safeguard” to curtail flight crew from seeking asylum, he said.

When asked about the PIA flight attendants’ disappearances, Erin Kerbel, spokesperson for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, said the department couldn’t comment on specific cases due to privacy legislation.

In response to questions about PIA’s claim that discussions are underway about the issue, a spokesperson for the CBSA said it could not confirm any information.

“The Canada Border Services Agency does not provide comment or details on specific individuals, including any discussions that would take place with airline companies, as an individual’s border and immigration information is considered private and protected by the Privacy Act,” Maria Ladouceur said in an email to CTVNews.ca.

Since the crew members’ disappearances, Khan said, the airline has “done numerous things to curtail that.”

For instance, the airline is only staffing Toronto-bound flights with crew members who have “established linkages” in Pakistan, such as children, spouses or parents, as well as those who have worked in the organization for more than 15 years.

The airline avoids sending to Toronto those who are single or don’t have established family ties in Pakistan, he said.

Khan said he and the airline are no longer in contact with the flight attendants because, they discovered, they usually change their phone numbers soon after disappearing in Toronto.

Who disappeared?

The PIA flight attendants who vanished in Canada are seasoned pros in their late 30s or 40s, some of whom have worked for the airline for as long as two decades, Khan said.

“There was never any sign from them that they would seek something like that,” he said. “So that is something that is bothering us in the matter because working with people who have been working with you for a long time and then something happens like this is pretty unexpected.”

In one of the latest cases in February, the crew members were waiting to take the bus back to the airport from the hotel in Toronto and one of the flight attendants didn’t show up, Khan said.

The airline was unable to reach the flight attendant on her cellphone or hotel landline so, Khan says, they asked hotel management to check if she was OK.

“When the crew went there, she left her uniform there with a note saying, ‘Thank you PIA,'” Khan said, which he interpreted as a genuine sentiment of gratitude for her more than 15 years of service with PIA rather than a taunt.

Khan said the crew members who disappeared were “family values people” who had good careers in Pakistan.

Asylum policies

Individuals can make a refugee claim in Canada at a port of entry upon arrival or online if they are already in Canada, according to the Canadian government’s website.

Canadian immigration or border officials will determine if the person is eligible for a hearing before the Immigration and Refugee Board. All claimants must undergo health and security screenings, the government says.

If eligible to make a claim in Canada, refugee claimants can access social assistance, education, health services, emergency housing and legal aid pending a decision on their claim. Most can apply for a work permit after a medical examination.

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Alberta's population surges by record-setting 202,000 people: Here's where they all came from – CBC.ca

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Alberta smashed population-growth records in the past year, mainly due to people moving to the province from across Canada and around the world.

The province’s population surged to just over 4.8 million as of Jan. 1, according to new estimates released Wednesday by Statistics Canada.

That’s an increase of 202,324 residents compared with a year earlier, which marks — by far — the largest annual increase on record.

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Alberta also broke a national record in 2023 for interprovincial migration, with a net gain of 55,107 people.

“This was the largest gain in interprovincial migration nationally since comparable data became available in 1972,” Statistics Canada said in a release.


Most of the interprovincial migrants came from Ontario and British Columbia.

Statistics Canada estimates that 38,236 Ontarians moved to Alberta last year, versus 14,860 Albertans who moved to Ontario, for a net gain of 23,376 people.

Similarly, an estimated 37,650 British Columbians moved to Alberta, compared to 22,400 Albertans who moved to B.C., for a net gain of 15,250.


All told, interprovincial migration accounted for 27 per cent of Alberta’s population growth over the past year.

That put it just ahead of permanent immigration, which accounted for 26 per cent, and well ahead of natural population increase (more births than deaths), which accounted for eight per cent.

The largest component, however, was temporary international migration.

Non-permanent residents from other countries accounted for 39 per cent of the province’s population growth in the past year, reflecting a national trend.


Canada’s population reached 40,769,890 on Jan. 1, according to Statistics Canada estimates, which is up 3.2 per cent from a year ago.

“Most of Canada’s 3.2-per-cent population growth rate stemmed from temporary immigration in 2023,” Statistics Canada noted.

“Without temporary immigration, that is, relying solely on permanent immigration and natural increase (births minus deaths), Canada’s population growth would have been almost three times less (1.2 per cent).”

Alberta’s population, meanwhile, grew by 4.4 per cent year-over-year.

Alberta now represents 11.8 per cent of the country’s population, its largest proportion on record. 

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