Despite the temporary shutdown of a Pfizer plant in Belgium and threats from the European Union to limit export of COVID-19 vaccines, Canada should still have enough doses by the fall to inoculate every Canadian who wants the vaccine, several experts say.
However, the bigger challenge will likely be the logistics of ensuring that more than 35 million Canadians will have received shots by that time — a target set out by the Liberal government.
“Is it feasible? Yes, but certainly it’s going to take a monumental effort,” said Jason Kindrachuk, assistant professor and Canada Research Chair in emerging viruses at Winnipeg’s University of Manitoba.
“Vaccines don’t necessarily equal vaccinations,” he said. “Getting vaccine into the country is one [thing].
“But it’s getting it out of essentially storage areas and freezers and getting those vaccines into the arms of people where we’ve certainly had some questions.”
‘Very confident’ despite setback
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said his government was “very confident” that it would meet its end-of-September goal of vaccinating every Canadian who wants to be inoculated.
He made those comments to reporters as the European Union has threatened to impose export controls on vaccines leaving the 27-member bloc to ensure supply on the continent. The proposal would require companies to seek approval before shipping vaccinesto countries outside the EU, including Canada.
WATCH | Trudeau says vaccine shots will continue to arrive:
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is trying to reassure Canadians about the COVID-19 vaccine supply after the European Union raised the possibility of imposing export controls on vaccines leaving the EU. Canada’s Pfizer-BioNTech shots are made in Belgium. 1:44
How that could impact Canada’s vaccination plans will depend on how stringently the EU will appy these new dictates, said Ross Upshur, a professor at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health.
“If they’re serious, they’re going to be vetting what sorts of exports are carried out by Pfizer and other vaccine makers, then this could be a real impediment to the rollout of the planned vaccinations.”
Meanwhile vaccine deliveries to Canada are grinding to a halt this week due to a temporary shutdown at Pfizer’s plant in Belgium. That matters, because while Ottawa has signed deals for millions of doses of vaccines from several groups of developers, only two vaccines are currently approved for use in Canada: one produced jointly by Pfizer-BioNTech and another from Moderna.
Canada was expecting 366,000 doses of the Pfizer product to be delivered next week. Just 79,000 are now slated to arrive as the company retools its Belgium plant to improve productivity and pump out more shots than originally planned.
The temporary shut down raises questions as to whether there will be any additional or unforeseen delays that arise with shipments and supply, considering the vaccine is being shipped around the globe, Kindrachuk said
Potential new vaccines on horizon
Those kinds of setbacks are to be expected, said Lorian Hardcastle, an associate professor of health law and policy at the University of Calgary. As well, she said, there can be issues with production or obtaining raw materials.
“I think it’s certainly not impossible that we could run into stumbling blocks that would set us back. But it does still seem to be a reasonable forecast at this point that that [the government target] will happen by the fall.”
Still, the temporary nature of the plant closure, combined with the potential for new vaccines to become available is cause for optimism, she said.
Pfizer paused some production lines in Belgium in order to expand its manufacturing capacity, but has told Canadian officials it still expects to fulfill its first-quarter contract for delivery of vaccines. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)
The AstraZeneca vaccine, which is already in use in the UK, could be approved in Canada in the near future. And Johnson & Johnson is set to release its COVID-19 vaccine data next week.
“We have contracts with them and if Health Canada gives the green light, it’ll just make it even that much easier to achieve those goals and we’ll be able to achieve those goals faster,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease physician and member of the Ont. government’s vaccine distribution task force.
However, even with just the two vaccines approved in Canada so far, he said it’s very realistic that we meet the Liberal government’s target.
Of course, if Pfizer or Moderna stopped shipping their vaccines to Canada for whatever reason, and it’s more than just a temporary slowdown, then “that certainly could jeopardize those deadlines,” Bogoch said.
“If the companies make good on their contracts, we will still be OK.”
Even with the delay, Pfizer is still expected to fulfill its first-quarter contract, “which means we would still get the same amount of vaccines,” he said.
Johnson & Johnson, which is set to release its COVID-19 vaccine data next week, could add to the Canadian supply of doses if approved by Health Canada. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)
Logistics of delivery
Dr. Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician at St. Joseph’s Healthcare Hamilton and an associate professor at McMaster University, said just between the two vaccines expected to ship to Canada, there will be enough for every individual by fall.
“I don’t think that’s unreasonable,” he said.
But Chagla agreed with Kindrachuk that the stumbling block could be getting that supply into the arms of Canadians by the government’s target date.
“Getting 30 million Canadians vaccinated in a six month span is unheard of,” he said.
“I think that’s probably the bigger liability in terms of that September deadline, is the implementation sides of all of it rather than necessarily the actual supply chain.”
Kindrachuk said the size of Canada, including the northern regions and under-served communities still present logistical vaccination challenges.
“When we think about distribution, it’s not necessarily easy to do that. We have a massive area to try to cover,” he said.
He said it’s still unclear what structure and protocols will be used from region to region that will allow the vaccines to be distributed. Some provinces have been very forthcoming, others not.
“We really have to have things completely aligning for us to get this done by the fall,” he said.
Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.
“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.
“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.
Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.
Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.
Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.
The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.
As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”
“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.
The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.
Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.
It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.
Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.
The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.
“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”
Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.
“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.
“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.
“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
