The memo sent to staff in the Prime Minister’s Office to announce the hiring of Max Valiquette as the government’s new executive director of communications said the former marketing executive would be focused on, among other things, “aligning the entire team under a clear narrative.”
In politics, a clear narrative isn’t everything, but it’s a lot. And at least one of the reasons for the Liberal government’s struggles in 2023 might be that Justin Trudeau’s side lacked a compelling narrative — a tidy story to tell about itself and the country — or didn’t do enough to be heard.
There are very real problems abroad in the land that might explain why popular sentiment toward Trudeau and the Liberals has eroded over the past year, and why opinion polls this fall gave the Conservative Party the biggest advantage it has enjoyed since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party more than a decade ago.
Though the pandemic — arguably the hardest three years for Canadians since the Second World War — officially came to an end in May, it has not given way to a golden new dawn.
Inflation has cooled considerably from its high point in 2022, but it is still higher than most Canadians are used to and the impact of that peak still lingers. Interest rates have risen as a consequence of the Bank of Canada’s attempts to quell inflation. With construction failing to keep pace with demand, the cost of housing has surged. And the opioid epidemic persists.
Canadians have reasons to feel worried or frustrated — although the extent of that downturn in the national mood might still be surprising.
In 2014, a year before Trudeau came to office, Pollara found that 45 per cent of Canadians were optimistic about the future of the middle class. Two years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, that figure was at 53 per cent.
A woman uses her phone to take a photo of herself with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau during the Vancouver Pride Parade in Vancouver, B.C. on August 3, 2014. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)
But when Pollara (whose chief strategy officer is Dan Arnold, Trudeau’s former pollster) asked the question again this November, just 31 per cent said they were optimistic.
Beyond inflation, interest rates and the real estate market, there might be other reasons to worry about the future. The threat of climate change is now alarmingly apparent — 2023 should be remembered for the record-smashing wildfires and the smoke that shrouded the sun and poisoned the air.
The United States, our loud neighbour, remains riven by political turmoil — dysfunction that threatens the basic tenets of that country’s democracy.
But whatever the exact reasons for that waning optimism, those numbers pose a daunting political challenge for a prime minister who made a focus on the middle class a central part of the agenda he brought to office in 2015. When voters are dealing with real problems, it can also be a lot harder to tell them an optimistic story — especially if you’ve already been in office for eight years
The political power of a good narrative
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a skilled storyteller. He looks upon the public’s frustrations and offers a simple narrative: everything is bad, it’s all Justin Trudeau’s fault and under a Conservative government things will cost less.
If voters are mad about grocery bills or merely tired of Justin Trudeau, that message might be enough on its own to secure victory. After testing the Conservative Party’s television ads with focus groups, one pollster concluded that Poilievre’s party, like the Liberal Party in 2015, is becoming the “party of hope.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre takes part in a press event in Vancouver. B.C. on Sept. 14, 2023. (Ethan Cairns/Canadian Press)
When there are very real issues at play, it might seem trite to think about narrative. The idea of a narrative fits more comfortably with fiction than non-fiction. It can be concocted or contrived, manipulated or manipulative. It is not necessarily anchored in the truth.
And journalists and pundits probably pay too much attention to things like narrative, messaging and all the other concepts that can be filed under the broad heading of “communications.”
But the best narratives are anchored in something true. And amid the cacophony and happenstance of life, stories are necessary and powerful.
The Liberals came to office in 2015 with a series of messages — real change, better is always possible, sunny ways — that added up to a winning narrative. Trudeau, they said, was ready to lead a different kind of government that would do more to support and expand the middle class.
But it’s a lot easier to craft and maintain a narrative when you’re sitting on the opposition side of the House of Commons. Once in government, you are subject to the whims of domestic and global affairs — and the demand that you back up your story with action.
The pressure of events
Much of the spring of 2023 in Ottawa was consumed by allegations about foreign interference by agents of the Chinese government, along with the botched appointment of David Johnston as a special rapporteur tasked with looking into those reports (an inquiry will finally begin in January). Then came the controversy over the transfer of notorious serial killer Paul Bernardo to a medium-security prison.
On the day the House reconvened in September, Trudeau stood after question period and announced that the Canadian government was pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Indian government and the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Eight days later, Anthony Rota resigned as Speaker after inviting a Ukrainian war veteran to Parliament and publicly honouring him — following an extraordinary wartime address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — without checking to see on which side the elderly man fought. Two weeks after that, Hamas carried out its massacre of 1,200 Israeli citizens, touching off a war that has consumed the attention of governments and citizens around the world.
The At Issue panel breaks down the biggest political stories of the year, from affordability to allegations of foreign interference — all while wars fuelled global instability and division.
At the end of October, Trudeau attempted to mollify restive Liberal MPs with an awkward change to the federal carbon tax. And then Greg Fergus, Rota’s successor as Speaker, got into trouble for wearing his official robe in a video that was shown at an Ontario Liberal Party convention.
Liberals could fairly argue that many of the concerns grinding away at the government’s popularity and the public’s patience — inflation, interest rates, the cost of housing — are also somewhat beyond their control, or are at least not entirely their fault. But such explanations can only take a government so far.
And even if this was a particularly chaotic fall, it stands to reason that unforeseen things will continue to happen in 2024.
Do the Liberals have a story? Is it being heard?
The Liberals still come to the end of 2023 with several accomplishments they can point to from the last 12 months, including the continued rollout of new federal programs to provide affordable child care and dental care, and federal investments to build manufacturing centres for batteries and zero-emission vehicles.
He had a late start, but Housing Minister Sean Fraser spent the fall announcing new funding to build more homes and rewrite municipal zoning rules. And while the government advanced a series of new climate measures — clean electricity regulations, an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, a sales mandate for zero-emissions vehicles — it appears that Canada is now on pace to meet its greenhouse gas emissions target for 2030.
Aided in part by Poilievre’s own words and actions, the Liberals also have started to write a narrative about the Conservative leader — that he’s a right-wing radical who would cut the sorts of government programs Canadians value. And if the Liberals are faced with a significant desire for change in the next election, making an argument against the alternative offered by Poilievre will be key to their hopes of retaining power.
The Liberals have managed to promote themselves over the past 12 months with announcements, Instagram videos and the like. And the prime minister has toyed with certain narrative frames and ideas — including the “promise of Canada,” an idea that Poilievre has also put front and centre at times.
But if the Liberals are trying to tell a story — if they have a story to tell — it’s not obvious that it’s being heard. If they have an argument, it might not yet be one it can boil down to a sentence. And so, the Liberal narrative is one story to watch in 2024.
The New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government, and Susan Holt will become the first woman to lead the province.
Here’s the latest from election night. All times are ADT.
10:15 p.m.
The results of the New Brunswick election are in, and with virtually all of the ballots counted, the Liberals won 31 seats out of 49.
The Progressive Conservatives won 16 seats.
The Green Party won two.
Voter turnout was about 66 per cent.
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10 p.m.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has congratulated New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt for her party’s victory in the provincial election.
Trudeau says on the X platform he’s looking forward to working with Holt to build more homes, protect the country’s two official languages, and improve health care.
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9:48 p.m.
During her victory speech tonight in Fredericton, New Brunswick premier-designate Susan Holt thanked all the women who came before her.
Holt will become the first woman to lead the province after her party won a majority government in the New Brunswick election.
The Liberals are elected or leading in 31 of 49 ridings.
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9:30 p.m.
Blaine Higgs says he will begin a transition to replace him as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.
After being in power for six years, the Tories lost the election to the Liberals.
Higgs, who lost his seat of Quispamsis, says, “My leadership days are over.”
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9:17 p.m.
The Canadian Press is projecting that Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick since 2016, has lost in the riding of Quispamsis.
Higgs, 70, has been premier of New Brunswick since 2018, and was first elected to the legislature in 2010.
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8:45 p.m.
When asked about the election results, Progressive Conservative chief of staff Paul D’Astous says that over the last 18 months the party has had to contend with a number of caucus members who disagreed with its policy.
D’Astous says the Tories have also had to own what happened over the last six years, since they came to power in 2018, adding that the voters have spoken.
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8:39 p.m.
The Canadian Press is projecting that David Coon, leader of the New Brunswick Green Party, has won the riding of Fredericton Lincoln.
Coon, 67, has been leader of the party since 2014, the year he was first elected to the legislature.
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8:36 p.m.
The Canadian Press is projecting that the New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government in the provincial election.
Party leader Susan Holt will become the first woman premier in the province’s history.
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8:20 p.m.
Early returns show a number of close races across the province, with the Liberals off to an early lead.
Liberal campaign manager Katie Davey says the results will show whether party leader Susan Holt, a relative newcomer, was able to capture the attention and trust of the people of New Brunswick.
Davey says she believes voters have welcomed Holt and her message, which focused on pocketbook issues, especially health care.
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8 p.m.
Polls have closed.
Eyes will be on a number of key ridings including Fredericton South-Silverwood, where Liberal Leader Susan Holt is vying for a seat; Saint John Harbour, which has been competitive between the Tories and Liberals in recent elections; and Moncton East, a redrawn Tory-held riding that the Liberals have targeted.
At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three, there was one Independent and there were four vacancies.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
FREDERICTON – A look at Susan Holt, premier-designate and leader of the New Brunswick Liberal party.
Born: April 22, 1977.
Early years: Raised in Fredericton, she attended Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and then spent a year in Toronto before moving abroad for three years, spending time in Australia and India.
Education: Earned a bachelor of arts in economics and a bachelor of science in chemistry from Queen’s University.
Family: Lives in Fredericton with her husband, Jon Holt, and three young daughters.
Hobbies: Running, visiting the farmers market in Fredericton with her family every Saturday.
Before politics: CEO of the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce, CEO of the New Brunswick Business Council, civil servant, business lobbyist, advocate, consultant and executive with an IT service company that trains and employs Indigenous people.
Politics: Worked as an adviser to former Liberal premier Brian Gallant. Won the leadership of the provincial Liberal party in August 2022 and was elected to the legislature in an April 2023 byelection.
Quote: “We don’t take it lightly that you have put your trust in myself and my team, and you have hope for a brighter future. But that hope I know is short-lived and it will be on us to deliver authentically, on the ground, and openly and transparently.” — Susan Holt, in her speech to supporters in Fredericton after the Liberals won a majority government on Oct. 21, 2024.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province.
Liberal Leader Susan Holt is a relative newcomer to the province’s political scene, having won a byelection last year, eight months after she became the first woman to win the leadership of the party.
The Liberals appeared poised to take 31 of 49 seats to the Conservatives’ 16 and the Greens two.
Holt, 47, led the Liberals to victory after a 33-day campaign, thwarting Blaine Higgs’s bid to secure a third term as Tory premier.
The Liberal win marks a strong repudiation of Higgs’s pronounced shift to more socially conservative policies.
Higgs, meanwhile, lost in his riding of Quispamsis. In a speech to supporters in the riding, he confirmed that he would begin a leadership transition process.
As the Liberals secured their majority, Green Party Leader David Coon thanked his supporters and pledged to continue building the party, but he then turned his sights on the premier. “One thing is for sure,” he told a crowd gathered at Dolan’s Pub in Fredericton, “we know that Blaine Higgs is no longer the premier of this province.”
The election race was largely focused on health care and affordability but was notable for the remarkably dissimilar campaign styles of Holt and Higgs. Holt repeatedly promised to bring a balanced approach to governing, pledging a sharp contrast to Higgs’s “one-man show taking New Brunswick to the far right.”
“We need a government that acts as a partner and not as a dictator from one office in Fredericton,” she said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.
Higgs focused on the high cost of living, promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent — a pledge that will cost the province about $450 million annually.
Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. A former business advocate and public servant, she promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028; remove the provincial sales tax from electricity bills; overhaul mental health services; and impose a three per cent cap on rent increases by 2025.
The 70-year-old Tory leader, a mechanical engineer and former Irving Oil executive, led a low-key campaign, during which he didn’t have any scheduled public events on at least 10 days — and was absent from the second leaders debate on Oct. 9.
Holt missed only two days of campaigning and submitted a 30-page platform with 100 promises, a far heftier document than the Tories’ two-page platform that includes 11 pledges.
When the election was called on Sept. 19, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Green Party had three, there was one Independent and four vacancies. At least 25 seats are needed for a majority.
Higgs was hoping to become the first New Brunswick premier to win three consecutive elections since Liberal Frank McKenna won his third straight majority in 1995. But it was clear from the start that Higgs would have to overcome some big obstacles.
On the first day of the campaign, a national survey showed he had the lowest approval rating of any premier in the country. That same morning, Higgs openly mused about how he was perceived by the public, suggesting people had the wrong idea about who he really is.
“I really wish that people could know me outside of politics,” he said, adding that a sunnier disposition might increase his popularity. “I don’t know whether I’ve got to do comedy hour or I’ve got to smile more.”
Still, Higgs had plenty to boast about, including six consecutive balanced budgets, a significant reduction in the province’s debt, income tax cuts and a booming population.
Higgs’s party was elected to govern in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in almost 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — marking the first province to go to the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a slim majority.
Since then, 14 Tory caucus members have stepped down after clashing with the premier, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on conservative policies that represented a hard shift to the right.
A caucus revolt erupted last year after Higgs announced changes to the gender identity policy in schools. When several Tory lawmakers voted for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from cabinet. A bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.
Higgs has also said a Tory government would reject all new applications for supervised drug-consumption sites, renew a legal challenge against the federal carbon pricing scheme and force people into drug treatment if authorities deem they “pose a threat to themselves or others.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
