The memo sent to staff in the Prime Minister’s Office to announce the hiring of Max Valiquette as the government’s new executive director of communications said the former marketing executive would be focused on, among other things, “aligning the entire team under a clear narrative.”
In politics, a clear narrative isn’t everything, but it’s a lot. And at least one of the reasons for the Liberal government’s struggles in 2023 might be that Justin Trudeau’s side lacked a compelling narrative — a tidy story to tell about itself and the country — or didn’t do enough to be heard.
There are very real problems abroad in the land that might explain why popular sentiment toward Trudeau and the Liberals has eroded over the past year, and why opinion polls this fall gave the Conservative Party the biggest advantage it has enjoyed since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party more than a decade ago.
Though the pandemic — arguably the hardest three years for Canadians since the Second World War — officially came to an end in May, it has not given way to a golden new dawn.
Inflation has cooled considerably from its high point in 2022, but it is still higher than most Canadians are used to and the impact of that peak still lingers. Interest rates have risen as a consequence of the Bank of Canada’s attempts to quell inflation. With construction failing to keep pace with demand, the cost of housing has surged. And the opioid epidemic persists.
Canadians have reasons to feel worried or frustrated — although the extent of that downturn in the national mood might still be surprising.
In 2014, a year before Trudeau came to office, Pollara found that 45 per cent of Canadians were optimistic about the future of the middle class. Two years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, that figure was at 53 per cent.
A woman uses her phone to take a photo of herself with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau during the Vancouver Pride Parade in Vancouver, B.C. on August 3, 2014. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)
But when Pollara (whose chief strategy officer is Dan Arnold, Trudeau’s former pollster) asked the question again this November, just 31 per cent said they were optimistic.
Beyond inflation, interest rates and the real estate market, there might be other reasons to worry about the future. The threat of climate change is now alarmingly apparent — 2023 should be remembered for the record-smashing wildfires and the smoke that shrouded the sun and poisoned the air.
The United States, our loud neighbour, remains riven by political turmoil — dysfunction that threatens the basic tenets of that country’s democracy.
But whatever the exact reasons for that waning optimism, those numbers pose a daunting political challenge for a prime minister who made a focus on the middle class a central part of the agenda he brought to office in 2015. When voters are dealing with real problems, it can also be a lot harder to tell them an optimistic story — especially if you’ve already been in office for eight years
The political power of a good narrative
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a skilled storyteller. He looks upon the public’s frustrations and offers a simple narrative: everything is bad, it’s all Justin Trudeau’s fault and under a Conservative government things will cost less.
If voters are mad about grocery bills or merely tired of Justin Trudeau, that message might be enough on its own to secure victory. After testing the Conservative Party’s television ads with focus groups, one pollster concluded that Poilievre’s party, like the Liberal Party in 2015, is becoming the “party of hope.”
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre takes part in a press event in Vancouver. B.C. on Sept. 14, 2023. (Ethan Cairns/Canadian Press)
When there are very real issues at play, it might seem trite to think about narrative. The idea of a narrative fits more comfortably with fiction than non-fiction. It can be concocted or contrived, manipulated or manipulative. It is not necessarily anchored in the truth.
And journalists and pundits probably pay too much attention to things like narrative, messaging and all the other concepts that can be filed under the broad heading of “communications.”
But the best narratives are anchored in something true. And amid the cacophony and happenstance of life, stories are necessary and powerful.
The Liberals came to office in 2015 with a series of messages — real change, better is always possible, sunny ways — that added up to a winning narrative. Trudeau, they said, was ready to lead a different kind of government that would do more to support and expand the middle class.
But it’s a lot easier to craft and maintain a narrative when you’re sitting on the opposition side of the House of Commons. Once in government, you are subject to the whims of domestic and global affairs — and the demand that you back up your story with action.
The pressure of events
Much of the spring of 2023 in Ottawa was consumed by allegations about foreign interference by agents of the Chinese government, along with the botched appointment of David Johnston as a special rapporteur tasked with looking into those reports (an inquiry will finally begin in January). Then came the controversy over the transfer of notorious serial killer Paul Bernardo to a medium-security prison.
On the day the House reconvened in September, Trudeau stood after question period and announced that the Canadian government was pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Indian government and the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.
Eight days later, Anthony Rota resigned as Speaker after inviting a Ukrainian war veteran to Parliament and publicly honouring him — following an extraordinary wartime address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — without checking to see on which side the elderly man fought. Two weeks after that, Hamas carried out its massacre of 1,200 Israeli citizens, touching off a war that has consumed the attention of governments and citizens around the world.
The At Issue panel breaks down the biggest political stories of the year, from affordability to allegations of foreign interference — all while wars fuelled global instability and division.
At the end of October, Trudeau attempted to mollify restive Liberal MPs with an awkward change to the federal carbon tax. And then Greg Fergus, Rota’s successor as Speaker, got into trouble for wearing his official robe in a video that was shown at an Ontario Liberal Party convention.
Liberals could fairly argue that many of the concerns grinding away at the government’s popularity and the public’s patience — inflation, interest rates, the cost of housing — are also somewhat beyond their control, or are at least not entirely their fault. But such explanations can only take a government so far.
And even if this was a particularly chaotic fall, it stands to reason that unforeseen things will continue to happen in 2024.
Do the Liberals have a story? Is it being heard?
The Liberals still come to the end of 2023 with several accomplishments they can point to from the last 12 months, including the continued rollout of new federal programs to provide affordable child care and dental care, and federal investments to build manufacturing centres for batteries and zero-emission vehicles.
He had a late start, but Housing Minister Sean Fraser spent the fall announcing new funding to build more homes and rewrite municipal zoning rules. And while the government advanced a series of new climate measures — clean electricity regulations, an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, a sales mandate for zero-emissions vehicles — it appears that Canada is now on pace to meet its greenhouse gas emissions target for 2030.
Aided in part by Poilievre’s own words and actions, the Liberals also have started to write a narrative about the Conservative leader — that he’s a right-wing radical who would cut the sorts of government programs Canadians value. And if the Liberals are faced with a significant desire for change in the next election, making an argument against the alternative offered by Poilievre will be key to their hopes of retaining power.
The Liberals have managed to promote themselves over the past 12 months with announcements, Instagram videos and the like. And the prime minister has toyed with certain narrative frames and ideas — including the “promise of Canada,” an idea that Poilievre has also put front and centre at times.
But if the Liberals are trying to tell a story — if they have a story to tell — it’s not obvious that it’s being heard. If they have an argument, it might not yet be one it can boil down to a sentence. And so, the Liberal narrative is one story to watch in 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
