Trump is winning on the economy. That may not matter - CNN | Canada News Media
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Trump is winning on the economy. That may not matter – CNN

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Instead, Trump’s more than holding his own on the economy. Right now, it’s a strength for him. Such an edge may not matter, however, come this fall’s election.
The latest CNN/SSRS national poll puts Trump’s approval rating on the economy at 50%. That’s just a point below Trump’s average since the 2018 midterm elections. It also matches what other polls are finding. Trump scored a 50% approval rating on the economy in an April Marist College poll and a 52% in AP-NORC survey.
Moreover, the President seems to still be winning on the economy vs. former Vice President Joe Biden. In the CNN poll, Trump held a 12-point advantage when voters were asked who they trusted most to handle the economy. That’s up from a 4-point margin for Trump last month.
At first glance, it may be stunning that Trump’s doing so well on the economy. By almost any objective measure, the economy is doing poorly right now.
Trump’s steadiness makes a lot more sense, though, if Americans aren’t blaming Trump for the economic downturn. The coronavirus outbreak is a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic that is affecting a lot of different countries. Most world leaders are experiencing bounces in their approval ratings.
Americans are likely giving Trump a lot of slack given the pandemic with concern to the economy. Polling shows, for instance, they prefer stay-at-home orders remain in place to ensure safety than opening back up the economy. Of course, Trump, perhaps believing that Americans’ patience will run out, is now pushing back on those stay at home orders.
Importantly, Americans believe that the economy will be in a better position next year. A majority, 57%, said in the CNN poll that current economic problems were a “temporary obstacle to economic growth and the economy will soon recover.”
All of these data points are good signs for Trump. The bad economy doesn’t seem, right now, to be hurting him electorally too much, and it may never lead to the type of blowback that past economic downturns have for the incumbent party.
The bad news for Trump is that if you look at almost every single poll, Trump is losing to Biden overall. Even as he is winning on the economy, he is behind.
The problem for the President is that there’s a lot more going on than the economy. Trump’s overall approval rating has consistently trailed his economic approval rating. Changes in Trump’s approval rating has been disconnected from shifts in the economy.
Right now, voter choice is far more correlated with feelings on coronavirus than on the economy. In fact, it’s more highly correlated to vote choice than almost any variable I’ve ever seen.
Trump’s losing to Biden on handling coronavirus by a 6-point margin in CNN polling, which is nearly identical to Biden’s 5-point lead overall. Among those who say they are voting for Biden, Biden holds a 90-point advantage on who can best handle the coronavirus outbreak. Trump has a 90-point edge on handling the outbreak among those who say they’re voting for Trump.
For comparison, Trump’s only winning by 69 points overall among those who trust him over Biden on the economy.
These statistics fit with what we’ve seen historically. As I wrote about previously, there have been a number of elections where there was a non-economic issue on voters’ minds. Incumbents have won those elections when they’re more trusted than their opponent on this issue. They’ve either been forced to abandon their reelection bids or have lost when their opponents are thought to be better equipped on these important non-economic issues. This includes times when the economy was doing well.
The economy may not sink Trump, but it’s unlikely to save him either, even if voters trust him on it. Trump will likely only win if Americans believe he’ll do better on the coronavirus than Biden.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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