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OECD sees global economy turning the corner on coronavirus crisis, led by Chinese recovery – The Globe and Mail
The outlook for the global economy is improving despite a second wave of coronavirus outbreaks in many countries as vaccines emerge and a Chinese-led recovery takes hold, the OECD said on Tuesday.
The global economy will grow 4.2 per cent next year and ease to 3.7 per cent in 2022, after shrinking 4.2 per cent this year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its latest Economic Outlook.
After a second wave of infections hit Europe and the United States, the Paris-based policy forum trimmed its forecasts from September, when it expected a global contraction of 4.5 per cent before a 5 per cent recovery in 2021. It did not have a 2022 forecast at the time.
“We’re not out of the woods. We’re still in the midst of a pandemic crisis, which means that policy still has a lot to do,” said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.
Overall global gross domestic product will return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2021, led by a strong recovery in China, the OECD said.
But that masked wide variations among countries, with output in many economies expected to remain about 5 per cent below pre-crisis levels in 2022.
China will be the only country covered by the OECD to see any growth at all this year, at 1.8 per cent, unchanged from the last forecast in September. It will gain speed to 8 per cent in 2021 – also unchanged – before easing to 4.9 per cent in 2022.
The United States and Europe are expected to contribute less to the recovery than their weight in the global economy.
After contracting 3.7 per cent this year, the U.S. economy will grow 3.2 per cent in 2021 and 3.5 per cent in 2022, assuming a new fiscal stimulus is agreed. In September, the OECD had forecast a contraction of 3.8 per cent this year and a rebound of 4 per cent next year.
The euro area economy will contract 7.5 per cent this year, with many economies finishing the year in a double-dip recession after re-imposing lockdowns. Its economy will see growth return in 2021 at 3.6 per cent and 3.3 per cent in 2022.
Though hard hit, the forecasts were an improvement from September, which had foreseen a contraction of 7.9 per cent this year and a 5.1 per cent rebound in 2021.
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Canada's economy bounced back at record 40% pace in third quarter — but GDP still below pre-COVID level – CBC.ca
Statistics Canada said Tuesday the economy grew at a record annualized pace of 40.5 per cent in the third quarter as businesses came out of COVID-19 lockdowns.
The previous record for quarterly growth in real gross domestic product was 13.2 per cent in the first quarter of 1965, the agency said.
As historic as the rebound was, it fell short of expectations.
Financial data firm Refinitiv said the average economist estimate was for an annualized growth rate of 47.6 per cent for the quarter.
The rebound over July, August and September was a sharp turnaround from the preceding three-month stretch, which saw a record drop.
Driving the rebound were the further rolling back of public health restrictions that allowed businesses to reopen.
Statistics Canada also said there was a substantial increase in the housing market owing to low interest rates, as well as household spending on goods like cars.
GDP still lower than it was in February
Despite the overall increase, the national statistics office said real gross domestic product still remains shy of where it was before the pandemic.
The third quarter ended with the fifth consecutive monthly increase in real GDP after the steepest monthly drops on record in March and April when widespread lockdowns were instituted to slow the spread of COVID-19.
September saw a 0.8 per cent increase in real GDP, Statistics Canada said, a slight slowing from the 0.9 per cent recorded in August.
The agency also provided a preliminary estimate for October’s figures, saying early indicators point to a 0.2 per cent increase in the month. The figure will be finalized at the end of this month.
“The fourth quarter of 2020 is still beginning with some growth, though less than we had anticipated,” CIBC senior economist Royce Mendes wrote in a note.
“Looking ahead, the economy faces a December with harsh restrictions that will likely see another contraction in economic activity.”
Chile's economy closer to growth after months of contraction – TheChronicleHerald.ca
SANTIAGO (Reuters) – Chile’s economic activity fell 1.2% in October from a year ago, the central bank said on Tuesday, as the Chilean economy inched closer to growth after months of contraction caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
The bank’s IMACEC economic activity index encompasses about 90% of the economy tallied in gross domestic product figures. The October figure was the economy’s best showing since February, when the economy grew 3.3%, bank statistics show.
But economic activity in Chile remained hobbled by the coronavirus outbreak, the bank said, even though cases of COVID-19 have fallen with the onset the southern hemisphere’s spring.
The bank said a drop in the production of goods and services had largely driven the contraction, but added the impact was softened by gains in commerce as quarantines were lifted across much of the nation.
Chile’s mining activity also grew by 1.6% in October, the bank said, a persistent bright spot during the pandemic.
Most of Chile’s sprawling copper mines maintained output even at the height of the country’s outbreak in May and June, a lifeline for an economy that depends on metals exports.
(Reporting by Dave Sherwood; Editing by Andrew Heavens)
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