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Trump’s expected arraignment is a stress test for U.S. politics

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Donald Trump speaks during a campaign stop in Council Bluffs, Iowa, on Dec. 29, 2015. With a former president awaiting arraignment, the U.S. is undergoing a severe stress test.Nati Harnik

With a former president under indictment, awaiting arraignment and fighting off multiple legal challenges, the United States is undergoing perhaps its most severe stress test in more than a century and a half.

At stake at the opening of an unprecedented and deeply significant week – the expected surrender of former president Donald Trump to New York authorities and his new profile as a criminal defendant charged with at least one felony – are the stability of civil society in the United States, the foundations of the U.S. political system, and the support beams of the country’s judiciary. All are facing challenges that will define the character of the country and its public affairs for the remainder of the decade and almost certainly even beyond.

The spectacle of a former president being booked, fingerprinted and subjected to a mug shot – and then exploiting his troubles for financial and political gain – transports the country into a new, chaotic political landscape and across a new frontier in social and cultural disquiet. To add to the civic peril, this crossroads occurs at a fraught moment when the country is experiencing divisions more profound than any since the Civil War, when the country quite literally fell apart.

To be sure, the United States has faced similar crises of democratic rule in the past several decades. The Watergate scandal of 1972-74, which ended with the resignation of Richard Nixon, was portrayed at the time as a national trial, testing the country’s constitutional pinions and the limits of a president’s ability to stretch the legal system and to hide behind the power of his presumed privileges and immunities. The 1998-99 impeachment drama of Bill Clinton was characterized as a further test of presidential prerogatives and set in motion an agonizing national debate over whether private sexual conduct should have public consequences.

But the question lingers: What makes this political crisis different from all other American political crises?

  • The circumstances. “We are at a pivotal moment, with a former president who for the first time in our history tried to overturn the peaceful transition of power – and with that person being the leading presidential candidate of his party,” said Laurence Tribe, a Harvard Constitutional law professor and counsel for E. Jean Carroll, who claims in separate legal cases that Mr. Trump raped and then defamed her.
  • Mr. Trump’s circumstances. More than the leader of a party, he is the self-proclaimed leader of what he describes as a “movement.” In a fundraising appeal only days before his indictment, he told supporters, “The left thinks that if they bury me with enough witch hunts and intimidate my family and associates that I’ll eventually throw up my hands and give up on our America First movement.”
  • The establishment-oriented countermovement (the Never-Trump Movement). These two groups are at odds on stylistic issues involving Mr. Trump and on many of the elements of his movement, which he described in his fundraising appeal as battling “the Deep State, the Open Borders Lobby, global special interests, and the [George] Soros Money Machine.”
  • The use that Mr. Trump, as the world’s most famous defendant, makes of his predicament. It is telling that the rough schedule for Mr. Trump’s surrender was released by the Trump presidential campaign. His motorcade procession to Tuesday’s arraignment, and his courthouse movements surrounded by Secret Service personnel in “bubble formation,” almost surely will reappear in Trump campaign footage. Mr. Trump, who made the presidency a business opportunity and his indictment a fundraising platform, has been able to exploit his difficulties in the past; the FBI raid on his Florida home spawned a spike in contributions. (Even so, his poll ratings did not move.) When news of his indictment was circulating, Mr. Trump sent a fundraising e-mail urging supporters “to cement your place in history and accept YOUR membership as a FOUNDING DEFENDER OF PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP AGAINST THIS WITCH HUNT.” Within a day, the Trump campaign raised US$4-million, with a quarter of the contributors new donors.
  • The promiscuous use of the word “weaponized” today. While he was president, Mr. Trump’s critics criticized him for “weaponizing” the government. Now that he is about to face formal charges in New York and perhaps elsewhere, he is accusing the Biden administration of “weaponizing the Justice Department.” Indeed, at his last rally, he spoke of the “weaponization of our system of justice” and described it as being “straight out of the Stalinist Russia horror show.” The weaponization charges grew even more fierce after the indictment.

“The justice system isn’t weaponized if there are grounds for charges,” said Shannon Bow O’Brien, a political scientist at the University of Texas. “Whether as President Trump or as Citizen Trump, there’s a right to hold him accountable. Nobody’s above the law in this country. Presidents are just average people with really cool jobs.”

Neither Mr. Nixon, whose resignation ended his impeachment threat, nor Mr. Clinton, who was impeached in the House of Representatives but acquitted in the Senate, faced criminal charges.

Cabaret comedian Mark Russell, who died last week but had entertained Washingtonians for decades in the Marquee Lounge at the swanky Shoreham Hotel, produced guffaws in the late Nixon years with a ballad called Jail to the Chief. Mr. Nixon never faced the serious prospect of imprisonment though, with Gandhi and the Reverend Martin Luther King Jr. in mind, he spoke of how there had been important writing done in jail. The 37th president was disgraced but, riding a second political wind, eventually rehabilitated himself as a foreign-policy savant. Mr. Clinton was disbarred but remained a high-spirited former president and campaigned vigorously for his wife, Hillary Clinton, in her presidential campaign.

“I have never in my lifetime felt that the moment was so precarious,” said Prof. Tribe. “But the country has been through a lot and we have survived.”

 

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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