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Trump’s real-estate empire pays the price for poisonous politics

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Former U.S. president Donald Trump’s slashing rhetorical style and divisive politics allowed him to essentially take over the Republican Party. His supporters are so devoted that most believe his false claim that he lost the 2020 election because of voter fraud.

But the same tactics that have inspired fierce political loyalty have undermined Trump’s business, built around real-estate development and branding deals that have allowed him to make millions by licensing his name.

Trump’s business brand was once synonymous with wealth and success, an image that now clashes sharply with a political brand rooted in the anger of his largely rural and working-class voter base. His presidency is now associated in the minds of many with its violent end, as supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

Those searing images, along with years of bitter rhetoric, are costing Trump money. Revenues from some of his high-end properties have declined, vacancies in office buildings have increased and his lenders are warning that the company’s revenues may not be sufficient to cover his debt payments, according to Trump’s financial disclosures as president, Trump Organization records filed with government agencies, and reports from companies that track real-estate company finances.

Prospective tenants in New York are shunning his buildings, one real-estate broker said, to avoid being associated with Trump. Organizers of golf tournaments have pulled events from his courses.

Trump’s focus on the political brand has increasingly overtaken his identity as a real-estate mogul, says one hospitality industry veteran.

“Prior to his political career, the Trump brand was about luxury – the casinos, the golf resorts,” said Scott Smith, a former hotel executive and hospitality professor at the University of South Carolina. “When he entered into politics, he took the Trump brand in an entirely different direction.”

Trump’s business also remains under the cloud of a joint criminal fraud investigation by the Manhattan District Attorney’s office and the New York Attorney General. The company and its longtime chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, have been charged with a scheme to evade payroll taxes, and investigators continue to probe whether Trump or his representatives committed fraud by misrepresenting financials in loan applications and tax returns. Weisselberg and the company deny wrongdoing and are contesting the charges.

As his development business struggles, Trump has announced his first major deal since leaving office — and it has nothing to do with real-estate. On Oct. 20, he said he will build a new social media platform aimed in part at giving him a political forum after being banned by Facebook and Twitter, who said after the U.S. Capitol riots that Trump used their platforms to incite violence.

That deal could prove lucrative for Trump regardless of whether the platform succeeds. Investors rushed to buy shares in Digital World Acquisition Corp, the publicly traded blank-check acquisition company that plans to merge with the newly announced Trump Media and Technology Group. Digital World shares surged and are now worth about $2 billion. Trump’s new media company will have at least a 69% stake in the combined company, but Trump has not disclosed his level of ownership in Trump Media.

Trump has also been raising money for his political operation, which reported having $100 million on June 30, as he hints at a 2024 presidential run.

Eric Trump, the former president’s middle son and a Trump Organization executive, said in an interview that the company is now in “a phenomenal spot.” He cited a refinancing of a loan on San Francisco office buildings that gave the Trump business about $162 million in cash, according to loan documents and a release by Vornado Realty Trust, the venture’s majority owner.

“We’re sitting on a tremendous amount of cash,” Eric Trump told Reuters.

In an email, a spokesperson for Donald Trump denied that the business has slumped since he entered politics.

“The real estate company is doing extremely well, and this is evident in Florida and elsewhere,” Liz Harrington said in an emailed statement. “Considering the coronavirus pandemic, in which the hotel industry was hit particularly hard, Mr. Trump’s company is doing phenomenally well.”

Financial records show Trump’s real-estate business has declined. Income from the family’s holdings, heavy on golf courses and hotels, took a beating during 2020 amid the coronavirus pandemic. Revenues at his Las Vegas hotel, for instance, fell from $22.9 million in 2017 to $9.2 million during 2020 and the first 20 days of 2021, according to Trump’s financial disclosures.

Trump is now making a second attempt to sell his lease on one high-profile property, the Trump International Hotel, housed in a former federal building in Washington, D.C., after failing to secure a buyer at the original asking price of $500 million. Meanwhile, the business is paying the federal government $3 million annually in lease payments, according to documents released earlier this month by the House Oversight Committee of the U.S. Congress. Those records show Trump’s Washington hotel lost more than $73 million since 2016.

The damage to Trump’s business image started early in his presidency. One consultant for Trump, arguing in a 2017 public hearing for a lower tax bill at his Doral golf resort, said Trump’s politics had damaged his business model.

“It’s actually not about the property, it is about the brand,” said consultant Jessica Vachiratevanurak, at a December 2017 hearing of the Miami-Dade Value Adjustment Board, in a video recording reviewed by Reuters. She cited a meeting she attended where top Trump Organization executives had described “severe ramifications” to his golf business from, for instance, tournaments and charity events being canceled by organizations wanting to avoid associating with Trump.

The resort saw revenues fall from $92 million in 2015 to $75 million in 2017, she said at another hearing the following year. Trump’s presidential financial disclosure listed Doral revenues at $44 million last year.

Vachiratevanurak declined a Reuters request for comment.

“This is obviously false as Doral is doing very well,” Trump spokesperson Harrington said.

In Trump’s home base of New York, the Trump name has become increasingly toxic. One high-profile property, the Trump SoHo hotel in lower Manhattan, was rebranded the Dominick in 2017. New York City in January canceled his leases on a golf course, two Central Park skating rinks and a carousel; Trump has sued the city for wrongful termination of the golf course lease.

At 40 Wall Street, the 72-story skyscraper that was among Trump’s proudest acquisitions, problems that started before the pandemic have gotten worse, according to reports from firms that track real-estate performance. After the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol riots, some of Trump’s large tenants, including the Girl Scouts and a nonprofit called TB Alliance, said they were exploring whether they could get out of their leases. One commercial real-estate broker says many prospective tenants won’t consider the building because Trump’s name is on it.

The Girl Scouts did not respond to comment requests, and TB Alliance said it was “exploring all options” for leaving the Trump building.

“Most New York tenants want nothing to do with it, and that’s been the case for five years now,” said Ruth Colp-Haber, who said she has placed seven clients in the building over the years, but can’t interest anyone now. “It’s the biggest bargain going, but they won’t look at it.”

Occupancy was 84% in March 2021, well below the average of about 89% for that downtown New York office market, according to Mike Brotschol, managing director of KBRA Analytics LLC. The rents Trump has been able to charge are lower, too – between $38 and $42 per square foot in a market where the average runs closer to $50, he said.

The property’s financials have tumbled into risky territory, the reports say.

Trump took out a $160 million loan in 2015 to refinance 40 Wall Street – personally guaranteeing $26 million. Last year, the building was placed on an industry watchlist for commercial mortgage-backed securities at risk of defaulting, according to reports by KBRA and Trepp, which also monitors real-estate loans. In the first quarter of the year, according to the KBRA report, the debt-service coverage ratio, a statistic monitored by banks, dipped to a number indicating that the building’s cash flow can’t cover its debt payments.

In the statement for Trump, Harrington blamed “the disastrous policies of Bill de Blasio,” New York’s mayor, for the downturn in the city’s office market. “Despite all these serious headwinds, Mr. Trump has very little debt relative to value and the company is doing very well,” she said.

The Doral resort and Washington hotel, along with a hotel in Chicago, are secured by about $340 million in loans from Deutsche Bank AG, Trump’s biggest lender. But the bank has no appetite for more business with Trump and has no plans to extend the loans after they come due in 2023 and 2024, a senior Deutsche Bank source told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Asked about the bank’s unwillingness to work with Trump, his spokeswoman said: “So what?”

Experts say the prospect of any new Trump-branded development faces long odds. One hotel industry executive said hotel developers – worried about cutting themselves off from the millions of customers turned off by Trump – will likely think twice before signing any branding deals to put the Trump name on their properties.

“People have choices. You can go to the Ritz Carlton, you can go to the Four Seasons, and not bring the politics into it one way or the other,” said Vicki Richman, chief operating officer of HVS Asset Management, a hospitality industry consultancy and property manager.

The Trump Organization tried to take its premium luxury hotel brand downmarket with two new brands: Scion, a mid-priced offering, and American Idea for budget travelers. The company scrapped plans for both in 2019, citing difficulties doing business in a contentious political environment.

Harrington said nothing is off the table for Trump’s business.

“We have many, many things under consideration,” she said. “But we also have politics under consideration.”

 

(Reporting by Joseph Tanfani; additional reporting by Peter Eisler, Greg Roumeliotis and Matt Scuffham; editing by Jason Szep and Brian Thevenot)

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Natural gas producers await LNG Canada’s start, but will it be the fix for prices?

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CALGARY – Natural gas producers in Western Canada have white-knuckled it through months of depressed prices, with the expectation that their fortunes will improve when LNG Canada comes online in the middle of next year.

But the supply glut plaguing the industry this fall is so large that not everyone is convinced the massive facility’s impact on pricing will be as dramatic or sustained as once hoped.

As the colder temperatures set in and Canadians turn on their furnaces, natural gas producers in Alberta and B.C. are finally starting to see some improvement after months of low prices that prompted some companies to delay their growth plans or shut in production altogether.

“We’ve pretty much been as low as you can go on natural gas prices. There were days when (the Alberta natural gas benchmark AECO price) was essentially pennies,” said Jason Feit, an advisor at Enverus Intelligence Research, in an interview.

“As a producer, it would not be economic to have produced that gas . . . It’s been pretty worthless.”

In the past week, AECO spot prices have hovered between $1.20 and $1.60 per gigajoule, a significant improvement over last month’s bottom-barrel prices but still well below the 2023 average price of $2.74 per gigajoule, according to Alberta Energy Regulator figures.

The bearish prices have come due to a combination of increased production levels — up about six per cent year-over-year so far in 2024 —as well as last year’s mild winter, which resulted in less natural gas consumption for heating purposes. There is now an oversupply of natural gas in Western Canada, so much so that natural gas storage capacity in Alberta is essentially full.

Mike Belenkie, CEO of Calgary-headquartered natural gas producer Advantage Energy Ltd., said companies have been ramping up production in spite of the poor prices in order to get ahead of the opening of LNG Canada. The massive Shell-led project nearing completion near Kitimat, B.C. will be Canada’s first large-scale liquefied natural gas export facility.

It is expected to start operations in mid-2025, giving Western Canada’s natural gas drillers a new market for their product.

“In practical terms everyone’s aware that demand will increase dramatically in the coming year, thanks to LNG Canada . . . and as a result of that line of sight to increased demand, a lot of producers have been growing,” Belenkie said in an interview.

“And so we have this temporary period of time where there’s more gas than there is places to put it.”

In light of the current depressed prices, Advantage has started strategically curtailing its gas production by up to 130 million cubic feet per day, depending on what the spot market is doing.

Other companies, including giants like Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. and Tourmaline Oil Corp., have indicated they will delay gas production growth plans until conditions improve.

“We cut all our gas growth out of 2024, once we’d had that mild winter. We did that back in Q2, because this is not the right year to bring incremental molecules to AECO,” said Mike Rose, CEO of Tourmaline, which is Canada’s largest natural gas producer, in an interview this week.

“We moved all our gas growth out into ’25 and ’26.”

LNG Canada is expected to process up to 2 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of natural gas per day once it reaches full operations. That represents what will be a significant drawdown of the existing oversupply, Rose said, adding that is why he thinks the future for western Canadian natural gas producers is bright.

“That sink of 2 Bcf a day will logically take three-plus years to fill. And then if LNG Canada Phase 2 happens, then obviously that’s even more positive,” Rose said.

While Belenkie said he agrees LNG Canada will lift prices, he’s not as convinced as Rose that the benefits will be sustained for a long period of time.

“Our thinking is that markets will be healthy for six months, a year, 18 months — whatever it is — and then after that 18 months, because prices will be healthy, supply will grow and probably overshoot demand again,” he said, adding he’s frustrated that more companies haven’t done what Advantage has done and curtailed production in an effort to limit the oversupply in the market.

“Frankly, we’ve been very disappointed to see how few other producers have chosen to shut in with gas prices this low. . . you’re basically dumping gas at a loss,” Belenkie said.

Feit, the analyst for Enverus, said there’s no doubt LNG Canada’s opening will be a major milestone that will help to support natural gas pricing in Western Canada. He added there are other Canadian LNG projects in the works that would also provide a boost in the longer-term, such as LNG Canada’s proposed Phase 2, as well as potential increased demand from the proliferation of AI-related data centres and other power-hungry infrastructure.

But Feit added that producers need to be disciplined and allow the market to balance in the near-term, otherwise supply levels could overshoot LNG Canada’s capacity and periods of depressed pricing could reoccur.

“Obviously selling gas at pennies on the dollar is not a sustainable business model,” Feit said.

“But there’s an old industry saying that the cure for low gas prices is low gas prices. You know, eventually companies will have to curtail production, they will have to make adjustments.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TOU; TSX:AAV, TSX:CNQ)

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Corus Entertainment reports Q4 loss, signs amended debt deal with banks

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TORONTO – Corus Entertainment Inc. reported a fourth-quarter loss compared with a profit a year ago as its revenue fell 21 per cent.

The broadcaster says its net loss attributable to shareholders amounted to $25.7 million or 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 31. The result compared with a profit attributable to shareholders of $50.4 million or 25 cents per diluted share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter totalled $269.4 million, down from $338.8 million a year ago.

On an adjusted basis, Corus says it lost two cents per share for its latest quarter compared with an adjusted loss of four cents per share a year earlier.

The company also announced that it has signed an deal to amend and restate its existing syndicated, senior secured credit facilities with its bank group.

The restated credit facility was changed to reduce the total limit on the revolving facility to $150 million from $300 million and increase the maximum total debt to cash flow ratio required under the financial covenants.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CJR.B)

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Hiring Is a Process of Elimination

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Job seekers owe it to themselves to understand and accept; fundamentally, hiring is a process of elimination. Regardless of how many applications an employer receives, the ratio revolves around several applicants versus one job opening, necessitating elimination.

Essentially, job gatekeepers—recruiters, HR and hiring managers—are paid to find reasons and faults to reject candidates (read: not move forward) to find the candidate most suitable for the job and the company.

Nowadays, employers are inundated with applications, which forces them to double down on reasons to eliminate. It’s no surprise that many job seekers believe that “isms” contribute to their failure to get interviews, let alone get hired. Employers have a large pool of highly qualified candidates to select from. Job seekers attempt to absolve themselves of the consequences of actions and inactions by blaming employers, the government or the economy rather than trying to increase their chances of getting hired by not giving employers reasons to eliminate them because of:

 

  • Typos, grammatical errors, poor writing skills.

 

“Communication, the human connection, is the key to personal and career success.” ― Paul J. Meyer.

The most vital skill you can offer an employer is above-average communication skills. Your resume, LinkedIn profile, cover letters, and social media posts should be well-written and error-free.

 

  • Failure to communicate the results you achieved for your previous employers.

 

If you can’t quantify (e.g. $2.5 million in sales, $300,000 in savings, lowered average delivery time by 6 hours, answered 45-75 calls daily with an average handle time of 3 and a half minutes), then it’s your opinion. Employers care more about your results than your opinion.

 

  • An incomplete LinkedIn profile.

 

Before scheduling an interview, the employer will review your LinkedIn profile to determine if you’re interview-worthy. I eliminate any candidate who doesn’t have a complete LinkedIn profile, including a profile picture, banner, start and end dates, or just a surname initial; anything that suggests the candidate is hiding something.  

 

  • Having a digital footprint that’s a turnoff.

 

If an employer is considering your candidacy, you’ll be Google. If you’re not getting interviews before you assert the unfounded, overused excuse, “The hiring system is broken!” look at your digital footprint. Employers are reading your comments, viewing your pictures, etc. Ask yourself, is your digital behaviour acceptable to employers, or can it be a distraction from their brand image and reputation? On the other hand, not having a robust digital footprint is also a red flag, particularly among Gen Y and Gen Z hiring managers. Not participating on LinkedIn, social media platforms, or having a blog or website can hurt your job search.

 

  • Not appearing confident when interviewing.

 

Confidence = fewer annoying questions and a can-do attitude.

It’s important for employers to feel that their new hire is confident in their abilities. Managing an employee who lacks initiative, is unwilling to try new things, or needs constant reassurance is frustrating.

Job searching is a competition; you’re always up against someone younger, hungrier and more skilled than you.

Besides being a process of elimination, hiring is also about mitigating risk. Therefore, being seen as “a risk” is the most common reason candidates are eliminated, with the list of “too risky” being lengthy, from age (will be hard to manage, won’t be around long) to lengthy employment gaps (raises concerns about your abilities and ambition) to inappropriate social media postings (lack of judgement).

Envision you’re a hiring manager hiring for an inside sales manager role. In the absence of “all things being equal,” who’s the least risky candidate, the one who:

  • offers empirical evidence of their sales results for previous employers, or the candidate who “talks a good talk”?
  • is energetic, or the candidate who’s subdued?
  • asks pointed questions indicating they’re concerned about what they can offer the employer or the candidate who seems only concerned about what the employer can offer them.
  • posts on social media platforms, political opinions, or the candidate who doesn’t share their political views?
  • on LinkedIn and other platforms in criticizes how employers hire or the candidate who offers constructive suggestions?
  • has lengthy employment gaps, short job tenure, or a steadily employed candidate?
  • lives 10 minutes from the office or 45 minutes away?
  • has a resume/LinkedIn profile that shows a relevant linear career or the candidate with a non-linear career?
  • dressed professionally for the interview, or the candidate who dressed “casually”?

An experienced hiring manager (read: has made hiring mistakes) will lean towards candidates they feel pose the least risk. Hence, presenting yourself as a low-risk candidate is crucial to job search success. Worth noting, the employer determines their level of risk tolerance, not the job seeker, who doesn’t own the business—no skin in the game—and has no insight into the challenges they’ve experienced due to bad hires and are trying to avoid similar mistakes.

“Taking a chance” on a candidate isn’t in an employer’s best interest. What’s in an employer’s best interest is to hire candidates who can hit the ground running, fit in culturally, and are easy to manage. You can reduce the odds (no guarantee) of being eliminated by demonstrating you’re such a candidate.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

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