This past Wednesday, July 15, 2020, in a surprising move, the Trump administration declared the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services would take control of the country’s coronavirus data, replacing the CDC. This change, which occurred in the midst of a resurging virus – especially in the sunbelt, has been met with skepticism. The reasons for making the change seem plausible but the timing is questionable. Why did the federal government make this change before HHS had the proper technology in place, action which has led to a lack of transparency?
Two days after the announcement, Friday, July 17, Admiral Brett Giroir, Assistant Secretary of HHS was asked, “How long before we have transparency? Will it be a week, a month, six months? Mr. Giroir responded with,
“It’s not gonna be six months.” He also replied, “I’m not the chief technology officer here, I’m a consumer of that information.” “I’m certain it’ll be transparent and posted very, very soon.” He also stated, “We’re seeing the early indicators that the outbreak is starting to become managed.” And, “I think we are turning the corner.”
Skeptics find it interesting that we are ‘turning the corner’ only two days after HHS took over and only one day after new cases in the U.S. hit a record 77,000. Does this make you a little curious?
“It’s the Economy Stupid”
President Clinton’s campaign slogan certainly rings true today. You see, presidential elections are often won or lost on the strength of the economy. Moreover, U.S. economic strength is dictated by consumer spending, which accounts for 68% to 70% of GDP. Consumer spending is also greatly influenced by perception. So, one might ask, “What influences our perception?” According to The Peak Performance Center,
“Influences on perception include past experiences, education, values, culture, preconceived notions, and present circumstances. In the end, the perception you construct becomes your reality.”
Thus, perception surrounding Covid-19 is of the utmost importance and has become the new political battle ground. Whoever controls the data is in the best position to control the narrative and resulting human perception and behavior. What does all this have to do with the economy? Plenty.
Politics & The Economy
Many years ago, the political cycle revolved around elections. Once the election was over, campaigning ceased, and politicians got back to work. More recently, however, we have been trapped in a never-ending cycle of political discord. And with 2020 being an important election year, politics has become central in almost every major issue, especially Covid-19.
Like a 15-round prize fight, in one corner stands President Trump and the majority of republicans. In the opposing corner are the democrats. Make no mistake, the president is indeed concerned about the strength of the economy leading up to November. If the economy is still struggling and Covid-19 is still dominating the news, democrats will argue that the president didn’t act soon enough to subdue the virus. They will also say that he placed his reelection ahead of the health and welfare of the American people. Remember, the November election will ultimately be won or lost on the battlefield of perception. Although we have “truth in lending” laws to protect consumers from rogue lenders, there is no such equivalent in politics. According to one political consultant, since both sides engage in untruths, it’s assumed that’s just how the game is played.
As both parties seek to retain and increase their power this November, Americans must sort through a tremendous amount of disinformation, especially on social media. Anyone can post their opinion and state it as fact. Remember, it’s all about perception.
The president is leaning heavily on the economic issue, while a high percentage of democrats are following the advice of medical experts. Each side is spinning its own narrative, hoping to sway voters in November. This election has special economic significance given the civil unrest between various factions. Rahm Emanuel, former chief of staff under Barak Obama, said during the 2008 housing crisis,
“You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is it’s an opportunity to do things that you think you could not before.”
How long will Covid-19 persist? When will the American economy return to its former glory? How long until unemployment declines to its pre-Covid level? Until we have an effective vaccine, much will depend on the uniformity of the message from our elected officials and the perception of the American people. The longer we remain divided over the recommended safety measures to combat the virus, the longer we will be in this present situation. We all want this to end as soon as possible, but the behavior of many is prolonging the outbreak.
George Washington once said that “the bosom of America” was open to all, but only if they were willing to be “assimilated to our customs, measures, and laws: in a word, soon become our people.”
It’s time for ‘we the people’ to behave as the ‘United’ States of America and join together in the common cause of defeating this invader. The health of our economy and the lives of our neighbors hangs in the balance.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
