(Reuters) – Canada‘s main stock index was flat on Friday as weak monthly retail sales offset positive earnings updates, while delays in coronavirus vaccine rollouts and weak jobs data weighed on weekly performance.
Domestic retail sales fell 3.4% in December to $53.38 billion ($42.37 billion), the biggest monthly drop since April, as COVID-19 restrictions hit businesses, Statistics Canada said.
* At 9:47 a.m. ET (1447 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was flat at 18,274.68 and was set to record its worst week so far this month.
* Also weighing on the index were forecasts that showed new variants of COVID-19 would increase the threat of a spring resurgence unless enhanced public health measures are maintained.
* The energy sector climbed 0.2% even as U.S. crude prices were down 0.8% a barrel, while Brent crude lost 0.4%. [O/R]
* The financials sector gained 0.1%. The industrials sector fell 0.2%.
* The materials sector, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, added 0.6% as gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,780 an ounce.
* On the TSX, 115 issues were higher, while 96 issues declined for a 1.20-to-1 ratio favouring gainers, with 23.48 million shares traded.
* Hudbay Minerals and auto supplier Magna International were among the top gainers on the index, adding 10% and 7%, respectively, after beating earnings estimates.
* OceanaGold Corp fell 6.6%, the most on the TSX, while the second biggest decliner was Ritchie Bros Auctioneers, down 5.3%.
* The most heavily traded shares by volume were Avalon Advanced Materials, up 12.1%; Supreme Cannabis Company, which was flat and SOperior Fertilizer Corp, down 25.0%.
* The TSX posted 11 new 52-week highs and no new lows.
* Across all Canadian issues there were 33 new 52-week highs and three new lows, with a total volume of 61.90 million shares.
(Reporting by Shashank Nayar in Bengaluru; Editing by Ramakrishnan M.)
Saskatoon economy recovering but IMF warns of inflation, vaccine inequality – Global News
At least, for now.
The Saskatoon Regional Economic Development Authority (SREDA) calculates the economy of the province’s largest city is 67.8-per cent recovered from the pandemic as of Thursday (though most of the factors it takes into account are from much earlier in the month).
SREDA CEO Alex Fallon told Global News that agricultural exports, the housing market and consumer and retail spending is driving the bulk of the recovery right now. He said the hospitality sector is helping, with people taking staycations in the city, but is still dragging behind.
“The economic recovery in the Saskatoon region is probably a little bit better (than) we expected it to be,” he said.
He added that the rest of the recovery will depend on the continuing performance of the housing market, as well as home renovations and consumer confidence in the economy.
He predicted, albeit cautiously, that Saskatoon will recover fully by the end of the year.
A recent IMF report states any recovery is threatened by unequal vaccine distribution.
The IMF’s July World Economic Outlook predicts a 6 per cent increase in the global economy (which coincidentally matches the Bank of Canada’s most recent prediction for the Canadian economy) – if infections stay low.
“Vaccine access has emerged as the principal fault line along which the global recovery splits into two blocs: those that can look forward to further normalization of activity later this year and those that will still face resurgent infections and rising COVID death tolls,” the report states.
“The recovery, however, is not assured even in countries where infections are currently very low so long as the virus circulates elsewhere,” and so long as segments of the population remain susceptible.
It says a new, extra infectious or deadly variant would disrupt any recovery efforts because it is likely to spread around the planet.
The report also states developing economies are susceptible to advanced economies’ overcorrections targeting inflation.
The combination of both “would severely set back their recovery and drag global growth below this outlook’s baseline.”
The cause of the inflation, it says, are low commodity prices in 2019 and supply issues as the cause of rising prices this year.
It predicts inflation will likely subside by next year, though notes “uncertainty remains high.”
University of Regina economist Jason Childs is a little more assured prices will continue to rise in Canada.
How consumers respond to this momentary inflation “blip” as Canada reopens, he said, “will determine whether or not we get locked into an inflationary spiral.”
So, our reaction to inflation could cause more inflation.
As such, Childs is less optimistic about Saskatoon’s recovery, or any western Canadian city’s recovery.
He said the 67.8-per cent figure broadly represents similar cities east of Ontario.
(He said the pandemic was less of an issue for many smaller population centres that depend on natural resources. Last year the president of the Agricultural Producers of Saskatchewan told Global News the agricultural sector was unaffected by the pandemic.)
Childs told Global News the remainder of the recovery will depend on the hospitality and tourism sectors rebounding, which he said isn’t likely to happen soon.
He said a labour shortage in those sectors, which Fallon also identified as an issue, will further limit gains. And he said the labour shortage could be hard to solve.
“The longer you’re away from the job market and employment, the harder it is for you to transition back into that,” he said.
Overall, he was wary of any predictions.
The pandemic has been a nearly-unprecedented event and the planet has never been more integrated.
Historical examples then may not be as illustrative as policy makers might hope.
“The last time we spent like this – we’ve never spent like this,” Childs said.
© 2021 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
The U.S. Economy’s Prospects Looked Bright, Until the Delta Variant Surged – The Wall Street Journal
The U.S. economy grew rapidly in the second quarter and exceeded its pre-pandemic size, but the outlook has suddenly turned cloudier due to the fast-spreading Delta coronavirus variant.
Virus cases are rising again, particularly in parts of the country where vaccination rates remain low. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention this week recommended that vaccinated people resume masking indoors in places with high or substantial transmission of coronavirus, leading some local governments and businesses to reinstate restrictions on activity.
for instance, said it would require workers and customers to wear masks in more than half of its retail stores, and Google delayed its return-to-the-office plans until mid-October. Several private and public employers have said they would require workers to be vaccinated or regularly tested for infection.
All of this has raised uncertainty about whether consumers and workers will retreat again, as they did last year. For now, forecasters generally don’t expect the spread of Delta to make a major dent in the U.S. economy, in part because businesses and consumers have learned to adapt to each wave of the pandemic.
Still, the Delta variant’s fast spread, initially in many emerging nations abroad, shows the U.S. economy remains vulnerable as long as the pandemic persists.
“What you worry about is how many disruptions are we going to continually have to deal with?” said
chief economist at Grant Thornton. “In the U.S. economy, there is some downside risk that some people don’t go out and don’t go out to eat as much as they did, they don’t travel as much.”
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of U.S. goods and services produced, grew at a 6.5% annual rate in the second quarter, up slightly from a 6.3% growth rate in the first three months of the year, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The reading was below economists’ estimates but pushed the size of the economy above its pre-pandemic level, a milestone that underscores the speed of the recovery that began in May 2020.
The strong spring growth was fueled by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and consumer spending that jumped at an 11.8% annual rate as more people received vaccinations and businesses reopened. U.S. payrolls continued to grow during the quarter, expanding the labor market by an average of nearly 600,000 a month. More recently, initial jobless claims last week resumed their decline.
Economists see two main ways the spread of the Delta variant could derail the robust recovery. First, some state and local governments could reimpose restrictions on businesses. Second, consumers could curtail spending on travel, dining out and moviegoing out of heightened cautiousness.
So far, new restrictions have been limited in scope, but the list is growing. They include the reinstatement of indoor-mask rules in some localities such as Los Angeles County.
Walt Disney Co.
said it will require visitors to Walt Disney World in Orlando, Fla., and Disneyland Resort in Anaheim, Calif., to wear masks indoors, effective Friday. Three music clubs in New Orleans—including Tipitinas—said they would require people attending shows to provide proof of vaccination or a negative Covid-19 test for entry, also effective Friday.
Americans don’t appear to be retreating into their homes as the Delta variant spreads. Flight volumes and hotel-occupancy rates continue to rise, according to an analysis by Jefferies. Public-transit usage is also gaining ground, though it is down compared with pre-pandemic levels, Jefferies said.
The increasing level of vaccinations in the U.S. has made people more likely to keep working and spending money despite the rise in cases.
“I really don’t expect anything like we saw in the spring of last year,” said
executive director at forecasting firm
“Going forward we’ll just see how high the case count gets and how nervous some people get.”
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA
said it was grappling with how to mitigate a range of higher costs to protect profitability, though its sales reached pre-pandemic levels in the second quarter. It said barley and freight had gotten more expensive, and that greater demand for cans in the U.S. had forced it to import them from elsewhere, further adding to its costs.
Shipping bottlenecks and commodities costs are helping drive inflation in the U.S. WSJ visits a patio-furniture factory in China to see why refurbishing your backyard could be pricier this year. Photo: Patrick Fok
The Wall Street Journal Interactive Edition
Similarly, Nescafe coffee maker
warned that costs for transportation, commodities and packaging were all rising, with little indication as to when the current bout of inflation would end.
Elsewhere, logjams at seaports around the world have left toy companies such as
scrambling already to ensure they will have sufficient supplies for the holiday shopping season. Toy-industry veterans say this year’s disruption is worse than when Covid-19 first struck last year, temporarily shutting many ports, factories and stores. Ocean freight bottlenecks have led to long delays for shipping from China and rates that are far higher than usual. Toy makers are also grappling with rising costs for materials and labor, leading some to raise prices.
Still, many analysts expect these supply constraints and bottlenecks to ease. Demand—particularly for long-lasting goods that consumers snatched up earlier in the pandemic—is starting to moderate. As a result, firms have more time to work through order backlogs and increase production. Many economists say inventory replenishment should boost output in the coming quarters.
A strong comeback in consumer demand this spring has been a double-edged sword for many businesses. Sales have boomed, allowing companies to recover losses, but growth has been so rapid, some have found it difficult to keep pace.
When many people got vaccinated earlier this year, they started flooding into Factory Hair Seattle to get their hair cut, said
the salon’s owner. “It just exploded,” she said. “I’ve been through a recession and seen the economy come back, but never anything like this.”
As business soared, some stylists became mentally fatigued, and some said they couldn’t take any more clients. Ms. Rivera added two stylists to her staff of six to try to keep up with the onslaught of customers.
The salon also raised prices, in part to slow growth a bit to a more manageable level, said Ms. Rivera. Haircuts, which include a shampoo and a blowout, cost an average of $60 to $70, up by $5 from a year ago, she said.
Consumer prices rose 5.4% in June from a year before, the fastest pace since 2008, the Labor Department reported. As overall economic growth eases, price increases could cool as well. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal in July see inflation measured by the department’s consumer-price index easing later this year, to 4.1% in December from a year earlier, and 2.5% by the end of 2022.
Overall, economists expect growth to remain strong, barring a sharp re-emergence of virus cases and related restrictions and fear. Respondents to the WSJ survey forecast the economy to grow 7% in the third quarter before drifting down to a 3.3% rate in the second quarter of 2022.
When the pandemic hit, sales at flatware maker Sherrill Manufacturing Inc. began doubling.
“The restaurants all shut down, so people were cooking for themselves, many of whom had never cooked anything beyond mac and cheese,” said
Sherrill’s chief executive. “They wanted something nicer on their table.”
Sales have continued to grow solidly but have cooled from the red-hot pace logged throughout much of the pandemic. Mr. Owens said the spending boost from government stimulus money has faded, and people are shifting their spending toward services such as restaurants amid reopenings.
“That has certainly created less of a demand for people sitting at home going, ‘Our plates are kind of old and I don’t really like them,’ or ‘Our flatware is dated,’” he said.
Still, Mr. Owens expects sales to remain strong. His company manufactures flatware in the U.S, and he said many individuals are increasingly interested in buying American-made products because of the limited availability of many imported goods during the pandemic.
At Factory Hair Seattle, business just recently started to level off, though the salon remains busy. The salon is seeing an influx of men coming in to tidy up—but still maintain—their longer pandemic hair, Ms. Rivera said.
“They’re like, ‘I’m still not going to be going back into my office until September, October,’ ” she said. “They don’t want to go back to this short, high-and-tight corporate look.”
Write to Sarah Chaney Cambon at email@example.com
US economy surpasses pre-pandemic size with 6.5% Q2 growth – Associated Press
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fueled by vaccinations and government aid, the U.S. economy grew at a solid 6.5% annual rate last quarter in another sign that the nation has achieved a sustained recovery from the pandemic recession. The total size of the economy has now surpassed its pre-pandemic level.
Thursday’s report from the Commerce Department estimated that the nation’s gross domestic product — its total output of goods and services — accelerated in the April-June quarter from an already robust 6.3% annual growth rate in the first quarter of the year.
The latest figure fell well below the 8%-plus annual growth rate that many economists had predicted for the second quarter. But the miss was due mainly to clogged supply chains related to the rapid reopening of the economy. Those bottlenecks exerted a larger-than-expected drag on companies’ efforts to restock their shelves. The resulting slowdown in inventory rebuilding, in fact, subtracted 1.1 percentage points from last quarter’s annual growth.
By contrast, consumer spending — the main fuel of the U.S. economy — surged for a second straight quarter, advancing at an 11.8% annual rate. Spending on goods grew at an 11.6% rate, and spending on services, from restaurant meals to airline tickets, expanded at a 12% pace as vaccinations encouraged more Americans to shop, travel and eat out.
Companies, too, spent with confidence last quarter. Business investment surged at an 8% annual rate in the April-June quarter, adding 1.1 percentage point to GDP.
With consumers and businesses expected to keep spending, many analysts expect the economy to grow at a robust pace of around 6.5% for all of 2021, despite the supply shortages and the possibility of a resurgent coronavirus in the form of the highly contagious delta variant. That would amount to the strongest calendar-year growth since 1984.
Growth that strong would far exceed the 2% to 3% average annual rates of recent decades. And it would represent a striking bounce-back from the economy’s 3.4% contraction last year in the midst of the pandemic, the worst decline since the 1940s.
Underpinning the rapid recovery have been trillions in federal rescue money, ranging from stimulus checks to expanded unemployment benefits to small business aid to just-distributed child tax credit payments. And millions of affluent households have benefited from a vast increase in their wealth resulting from surging home equity and stock market gains.
“Consumers are going to continue to drive the economic train,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “There is a lot of excess savings, a lot of cash in people’s checking accounts.”
Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, hailed the GDP report and called on Congress to go further by passing the administration’s proposals to vastly expand the nation’s infrastructure.
Overhanging the bright economic forecasts is the threat posed by the delta variant. The U.S. is now averaging more than 60,000 confirmed new cases a day, up from only about 12,000 a month ago. Should a surge in viral infections cause many consumers to hunker down again and pull back on spending, it would weaken the recovery.
For now, the economy is showing sustained strength. Last month, America’s employers added 850,000 jobs, well above the average of the previous three months. And average hourly pay rose a solid 3.6% compared with a year earlier, faster than the pre-pandemic annual pace.
Consumer confidence has reached its highest level since the pandemic struck in March 2020, a key reason why retail sales remain solid as Americans shift their spending back to services — from restaurant meals and airline trips to entertainment events and shopping sprees.
The economy is also receiving substantial support from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed reaffirmed that it will maintain its key short-term interest rate at a record low near zero to keep short-term borrowing costs low. It will also continue to buy government-backed bonds to put downward pressure on long-term loan rates to encourage borrowing and spending.
The recovery, in fact, has been so rapid, with pent-up demand from consumers driving growth after a year of lockdowns, that one looming risk is a potential spike in inflation that could get out of control. Consumer prices jumped 5.4% in June from a year ago, the sharpest spike in 13 years and the fourth straight month of sizable price jumps.
The measure of consumer inflation in the second-quarter GDP report showed an annual rise of 3.4% for core inflation, which excludes food and energy. It was the fastest such jump since 1991.
In addition to the drag on GDP from weak inventory restocking, reflecting the supply chain problems, housing construction fell at a 9.8% annual rate last quarter. This decline reflected, in part, the troubles home builders have had in obtaining lumber and other supplies.
Some economists have warned that by choosing not to begin withdrawing its extraordinary support for the economy, the Fed may end up responding too late and too aggressively to high inflation by quickly jacking up rates and perhaps causing another recession.
But at a news conference Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored his belief that recent inflation readings reflect price spikes in a narrow range of categories — from used cars and airline tickets to hotel rooms and auto rentals — that have been distorted by temporary supply shortages related to the economy’s swift reopening. Those shortages involve items like furniture, appliances, clothing and computer chips, among others.
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