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Turkey election: A guide to Erdogan’s biggest test at the polls

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Will the May 14 elections end President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year stranglehold on Turkey?

Millions will head to the polls next week to vote in Turkey’s presidential and parliamentary elections, which observers expect will provide the toughest test of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year period as the country’s leader.

The country’s struggling economy has dealt a blow to Erdogan, while his rivals, capitalising on the panic, have promised to improve conditions. But Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) still have strong support among large swaths of nationalists, and religious conservatives, particularly in Turkey’s Anatolian heartland, who see an opposition victory as a return to an era where they felt downtrodden.

Here’s a rundown of everything you need to know:

When is Turkey’s election?

  • Presidential and parliamentary elections are held on the same day every five years. This year, the elections had initially been scheduled for June 18 but were brought forward to May 14.

How does Turkey’s electoral system work?

  • In July 2018, Turkey transitioned from a parliamentary system to a presidential one. In the new system, voters elect the president directly and the role of prime minister has been abolished.
  • A candidate needs more than half of the presidential vote to win. However, if no one reaches the 50 percent mark, the top two candidates will go head to head in a run-off vote two weeks later.
  • Voters will also elect 600 Grand National Assembly, as the Turkish parliament is known, members through a system of proportional representation, choosing a party list in their district.
(Al Jazeera)

Who are the candidates and what are they promising?

Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 69

  • The incumbent is running for the People’s Alliance, a coalition of his AK Party and several right-wing parties.
  • During his 20-year rule, Erdogan was prime minister for 11 years, before becoming president in 2014.
  • Led Turkey’s economic and institutional transformation in the 2000s and early 2010s. This has left Erdogan with a lot of goodwill from supporters, who say their lives have improved. He is also viewed as strengthening Turkey on the international stage, and growing the country’s influence.
  • But the country’s struggling economy over the past 18 months has eroded his popularity.
  • He has been accused of cracking down on opposition groups, although government supporters said the moves were necessary following a 2016 coup attempt and the threat from “terrorist” groups.
  • Promises: Continuation of the presidential system, lower interest rates, and a strong, independent Turkey with influence across the wider region.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74

  • Erdogan’s main challenger and the candidate for the six opposition parties of the Nation Alliance.
  • Defines himself as a “democrat” and is known for anti-corruption rhetoric, but is accused by detractors of being too close to the West.
  • Kilicdaroglu has led the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) for more than a decade of election defeats.
  • Critics say those election defeats show that he is not strong enough to defeat Erdogan and lead Turkey. A leading member of his own alliance, the head of the nationalist Iyi Party Meral Aksener, initially rejected Kilicdaroglu’s candidacy in March, before reversing her position.
  • Before politics, he was a finance ministry specialist and then chaired Turkey’s Social Insurance Institution for most of the 1990s.
  • Promises: return to a “strong parliamentary system”, solving the Kurdish issue, sending Syrian refugees back home, and moving closer to the European Union and the United States.

Muharrem Ince, 58

  • The Homeland Party candidate – the only contender without an alliance backing him – brands his movement as the “third way”.
  • Former CHP deputy and party candidate for the 2018 election, where he came second. He later split from the party, which he is critical of.
  • Ince says Turkish social democrats and secular nationalists should unite against “Islamist” political parties.
  • His confrontational manner has led to scraps with journalists, and Kilicdaroglu supporters believe he is taking away support from their candidate and helping Erdogan.
  • Promises: sending refugees back to their home countries and “restoring” secularism in Turkey.

Sinan Ogan, 55

  • Candidate of the nationalist Ancestral Alliance (ATA) of three parties.
  • Ogan has an academic and international finance development background.
  • Former member of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), an ally of the Erdogan-led AK Party.
  • As an MHP candidate, he was elected as the deputy for Igdır, a city in eastern Turkey, in 2011 and expelled from the party in 2015 for internal opposition.
  • He has been accused of having xenophobic and far-right policies, particularly when it comes to Syrian refugees.
  • Promises: sending refugees back to their home countries and supporting the unity of Turkic states.
(Al Jazeera)

What are the key election issues?

Economy

  • Interest rate cuts sparked a currency crisis in late 2021, sending inflation to a 24-year peak of 85.51 percent last year.
  • But Erdogan’s supporters say he has revolutionised Turkey’s economy, built infrastructure, and developed regions traditionally ignored by the central Turkish government.

Earthquakes

  • Two massive earthquakes that hit southeast Turkey on February 6 left more than 50,000 people dead and widespread destruction – reconstruction is expected to cost billions of dollars.
  • An estimated 14 million people – 16 percent of the population – were affected by the earthquakes.

Brain drain

  • An increasing number of the country’s educated and highly skilled people are leaving the country for political and economic concerns.
  • According to the Turkish Statistical Institution, 286,000 people aged between 20 and 29 left Turkey between 2019 and 2021.

Values and identity

  • Erdogan, as prime minister, lifted the ban on women who wear the hijab working in the public sector in 2013, a move hailed by many as a validation of their place in society and their religious observance.
  • The CHP had previously backed the hijab ban and Erdogan says it may be reinstated – along with all the erasure of identity that represents – if he were to lose, as part of other measures that would threaten the values of the AKP supporter base.

Democracy

  • Erdogan’s detractors accuse him of reversing democratic gains in Turkey, particularly following the 2016 failed coup attempt, which saw thousands arrested.
  • Critics also say that freedom of the press has deteriorated, with 90 percent of all Turkish media outlets under the control of Erdogan’s government and businessmen close to him.

Refugees

  • Anti-refugee sentiment is rising, with rising reports of violence, abuse and crime between Syrian and Turkish communities.
  • According to the government, some 3.7 million of the total 5.5 million foreigners in Turkey are Syrian refugees. The government has been praised internationally for its refugee policy, but opposition candidates have been playing on rising hostility towards refugees.

 

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Trump is consistently inconsistent on abortion and reproductive rights

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CHICAGO (AP) — Donald Trump has had a tough time finding a consistent message to questions about abortion and reproductive rights.

The former president has constantly shifted his stances or offered vague, contradictory and at times nonsensical answers to questions on an issue that has become a major vulnerability for Republicans in this year’s election. Trump has been trying to win over voters, especially women, skeptical about his views, especially after he nominated three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn the nationwide right to abortion two years ago.

The latest example came this week when the Republican presidential nominee said some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

“It’s going to be redone,” he said during a Fox News town hall that aired Wednesday. “They’re going to, you’re going to, you end up with a vote of the people. They’re too tough, too tough. And those are going to be redone because already there’s a movement in those states.”

Trump did not specify if he meant he would take some kind of action if he wins in November, and he did not say which states or laws he was talking about. He did not elaborate on what he meant by “redone.”

He also seemed to be contradicting his own stand when referencing the strict abortion bans passed in Republican-controlled states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Trump recently said he would vote against a constitutional amendment on the Florida ballot that is aimed at overturning the state’s six-week abortion ban. That decision came after he had criticized the law as too harsh.

Trump has shifted between boasting about nominating the justices who helped strike down federal protections for abortion and trying to appear more neutral. It’s been an attempt to thread the divide between his base of anti-abortion supporters and the majority of Americans who support abortion rights.

About 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Voters in seven states, including some conservative ones, have either protected abortion rights or defeated attempts to restrict them in statewide votes over the past two years.

Trump also has been repeating the narrative that he returned the question of abortion rights to states, even though voters do not have a direct say on that or any other issue in about half the states. This is particularly true for those living in the South, where Republican-controlled legislatures, many of which have been gerrymandered to give the GOP disproportionate power, have enacted some of the strictest abortion bans since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Currently, 13 states have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy, while four more ban it after six weeks — before many women know they’re pregnant.

Meanwhile, anti-abortion groups and their Republican allies in state governments are using an array of strategies to counter proposed ballot initiatives in at least eight states this year.

Here’s a breakdown of Trump’s fluctuating stances on reproductive rights.

Flip-flopping on Florida

On Tuesday, Trump claimed some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

But in August, Trump said he would vote against a state ballot measure that is attempting to repeal the six-week abortion ban passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That came a day after he seemed to indicate he would vote in favor of the measure. Trump previously called Florida’s six-week ban a “terrible mistake” and too extreme. In an April Time magazine interview, Trump repeated that he “thought six weeks is too severe.”

Trump on vetoing a national ban

Trump’s latest flip-flopping has involved his views on a national abortion ban.

During the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that he would veto a national abortion ban: “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it.”

This came just weeks after Trump repeatedly declined to say during the presidential debate with Democrat Kamala Harris whether he would veto a national abortion ban if he were elected.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said in an interview with NBC News before the presidential debate that Trump would veto a ban. In response to debate moderators prompting him about Vance’s statement, Trump said: “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness. And I don’t mind if he has a certain view, but I don’t think he was speaking for me.”

‘Pro-choice’ to 15-week ban

Trump’s shifting abortion policy stances began when the former reality TV star and developer started flirting with running for office.

He once called himself “very pro-choice.” But before becoming president, Trump said he “would indeed support a ban,” according to his book “The America We Deserve,” which was published in 2000.

In his first year as president, he said he was “pro-life with exceptions” but also said “there has to be some form of punishment” for women seeking abortions — a position he quickly reversed.

At the 2018 annual March for Life, Trump voiced support for a federal ban on abortion on or after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

More recently, Trump suggested in March that he might support a national ban on abortions around 15 weeks before announcing that he instead would leave the matter to the states.

Views on abortion pills, prosecuting women

In the Time interview, Trump said it should be left up to the states to decide whether to prosecute women for abortions or to monitor women’s pregnancies.

“The states are going to make that decision,” Trump said. “The states are going to have to be comfortable or uncomfortable, not me.”

Democrats have seized on the comments he made in 2016, saying “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions.

Trump also declined to comment on access to the abortion pill mifepristone, claiming that he has “pretty strong views” on the matter. He said he would make a statement on the issue, but it never came.

Trump responded similarly when asked about his views on the Comstock Act, a 19th century law that has been revived by anti-abortion groups seeking to block the mailing of mifepristone.

IVF and contraception

In May, Trump said during an interview with a Pittsburgh television station that he was open to supporting regulations on contraception and that his campaign would release a policy on the issue “very shortly.” He later said his comments were misinterpreted.

In the KDKA interview, Trump was asked, “Do you support any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception?”

“We’re looking at that and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly,” Trump responded.

Trump has not since released a policy statement on contraception.

Trump also has offered contradictory statements on in vitro fertilization.

During the Fox News town hall, which was taped Tuesday, Trump declared that he is “the father of IVF,” despite acknowledging during his answer that he needed an explanation of IVF in February after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos can be considered children under state law.

Trump said he instructed Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., to “explain IVF very quickly” to him in the aftermath of the ruling.

As concerns over access to fertility treatments rose, Trump pledged to promote IVF by requiring health insurance companies or the federal government to pay for it. Such a move would be at odds with the actions of much of his own party.

Even as the Republican Party has tried to create a national narrative that it is receptive to IVF, these messaging efforts have been undercut by GOP state lawmakers, Republican-dominated courts and anti-abortion leaders within the party’s ranks, as well as opposition to legislative attempts to protect IVF access.

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The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe, NDP’s Carla Beck react to debate |

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Saskatchewan‘s two main political party leaders faced off in the only televised debate in the lead up to the provincial election on Oct. 28. Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck say voters got a chance to see their platforms. (Oct. 17, 2024)

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Saskatchewan political leaders back on campaign trail after election debate

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REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s main political leaders are back on the campaign trail today after hammering each other in a televised debate.

Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to make an announcement in Moose Jaw.

Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck is to make stops in Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert.

During Wednesday night’s debate, Beck emphasized her plan to make life more affordable and said people deserve better than an out-of-touch Saskatchewan Party government.

Moe said his party wants to lower taxes and put money back into people’s pockets.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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