Turkish economy to pick up some pace in 2020 after stumble: Reuters poll - The Guardian | Canada News Media
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Turkish economy to pick up some pace in 2020 after stumble: Reuters poll – The Guardian

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ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Analysts expect the Turkish economy to grow around 3% this year and next, according to a Reuters poll issued on Thursday, well shy of a government forecast as it recovers from a recession that left economic activity treading water last year.

The economy, which contracted year-on-year in three consecutive quarters to mid-2019, is likely to have logged a slight expansion of 0.2% for all of last year, going by the median estimate in the poll.

A previous poll in October predicted a contraction of 0.3% for 2019, after a bruising currency crisis in 2018.

Ankara has set an ambitious target of 5% growth for both 2020 and 2021 and has urged the central bank to lower its policy rate, which stands at 12% after aggressive easing since July, to help the recovery along.

The median estimate in the Reuters poll of 52 economists was for 2.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020, and 3% GDP growth in 2021, largely in line with the October poll.

The forecasts for this year ranged between economic expansions of 1.4% and 4.6%.

“The indicators do not point to a marked decline in the Turkish economy in the final quarter of 2019. We rather expect very weak but positive growth,” Germany’s DZ Bank said in a recent note.

“The economy … will continue on its course of recovery (in 2020), but with little momentum,” added the bank, which expects below-consensus growth for this year and next, due in part to political risk factors.

Turkish economic growth has averaged around 5% over the last two decades. But the 2018 crisis cut the Turkish lira’s value by nearly 30%, sent inflation soaring and severely crimped imports.

The poll predicted that inflation, which stood at 11.84% in December after hitting a 15-year high of more than 25% in October 2018, would ease further.

The median projection from 15 economists had annual inflation falling to 9.5% and 9% in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

Their consensus forecast was that the central bank would trim its policy rate to 11.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2020, and to 10.25% by year’s end.(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package: )

(Polling by Sarmista Sen and Indradip Ghosh; Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Kevin Liffey)

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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