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Two dead satellites may be on a collision course for Wednesday night – The Weather Network



There are thousands of pieces of space junk and debris orbiting around our planet, and just before 7 p.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, January 29, an old NASA telescope and a defunct military satellite will pass so close, there’s a chance they may collide.

LEOLabs, a California-based company that monitors space junk and satellites using ground-based radar, flagged this potential accident on Monday, posting an alert to Twitter.

IRAS is NASA’s Infrared Astronomical Satellite, which was launched in 1983 as the first mission to map out the stars in infrared light from above the atmosphere. The telescope operated for just ten months before it was decommissioned and has been circling the Earth as junk for nearly 37 years.

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GGSE-4, the Gravity Gradient Stabilization Experiment, was a science payload attached to the POPPY 5B U.S. military surveillance satellite. Launched in 1967 and deactivated in 1972, it has been part of the cloud of space junk around our planet for nearly 48 years.

The Infrared Astronomical Satellite. Credit: NASA

According to Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, IRAS has a mass of nearly one metric ton, while POPPY 5B is roughly 85 kg. While IRAS seriously outweighs POPPY 5B & GGSE-4, since the two are travelling at 14.7 kilometres per second (nearly 53,000 km/h) relative to one another, even a glancing blow between the two would tear both objects apart.

According to LEOLabs, the two satellites were originally predicted to pass within 15-30 metres of one another on Wednesday night. Normally, that would still count as a clean miss. As McDowell pointed out on Twitter, however, POPPY 5B/GGSE-4 has 18-metre-long gravity gradient booms – long antenna-like structures that extend far out from the satellite’s centre of mass. If the two were to pass within 18 metres of each other, it would very likely result in a high-speed impact.

Satellite-Collision-Map-LeoLabsSatellite collision map for NASA IRAS and NRO/USN GGSE-4, in LEOLabs’ interactive viewer. Credit: LEOLabs

As of Tuesday night, LEOLabs updated their prediction, which now shows that the two satellites’ closest pass will likely bring them to within 13-87 meters of one another. Although the update includes the potential for the satellites to be even closer than in Monday night’s prediction, the farthest pass is nearly three times the original distance. Thus the chance of impact went down from 1 in 100 to 1 in 1,000.

If these two dead satellites do end up colliding, it will result in a cloud of shrapnel and debris, which would continue to orbit the planet. There is very little chance of the satellites crashing to Earth, as they are too far up to be dragged down by friction with Earth’s atmosphere. There is the chance that some of the debris could end up in orbits that put other spacecraft – functional satellites and even the International Space Station – at risk of further impacts.

Although a sensationalized, extreme version of what is known as the Kessler Syndrome, the 2013 movie Gravity is an excellent example of the cascade effect impacts in orbit can have.

This potential impact highlights the need for space agencies and corporations to do everything they can to reduce the amount of space junk in orbit of our planet – both by removing the junk that is already there, and reducing the amount of junk that is added during future launches.

This story will be updated as the situation develops.

Teaser image is a combination of artist impression drawing of IRAS and POPPY 5E, credited to NASA and NRO/USN, respectively, and combined by Scott Sutherland

Sources: LEOLabs | NASA | Jonathan McDowell


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Clamshells Face the Acid Test



It’s low tide in Bodega Bay, north of San Francisco, California, and Hannah Hensel is squishing through thick mud, on the hunt for clams. The hinged mollusks are everywhere, burrowed into the sediment, filtering seawater to feed on plankton. But Hensel isn’t looking for living bivalves—she’s searching the mudflat for the shells of dead clams.

“I did lose a boot or two,” she recalls. “You can get sunk into it pretty deep.”

Hensel, a doctoral candidate at the University of California, Davis, is studying shells, which are composed of acid-buffering calcium carbonate, as a tool that could one day help shelled species survive in the world’s rapidly acidifying oceans.

The inspiration for Hensel’s research comes from Indigenous sea gardening practices. On beaches from Alaska to Washington State, First Nations and tribal communities built rock-walled terraces in the intertidal zone to bolster populations of shellfish and other invertebrates. Although these sea gardens have not been documented farther south, clams were also vital sustenance in central California. Coast Miwok and Southern Pomo people harvested clams for food and shaped shells into bead money, says Tsim Schneider, an archaeologist at the University of California, Santa Cruz, and a member of the Federated Indians of Graton Rancheria. “So taking care of your clam beds was actually kind of protecting your vault, your bank,” says Schneider.

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In the sea gardens of the Pacific Northwest, caretakers crushed the shells of harvested clams and mixed the fragments back into the beach. Recent research has shown multiple positive effects of this broken shell “hash,” from opening spaces in the sediment so young clams can more easily burrow and grow, to releasing chemical cues that encourage larval clams to settle nearby.

This millennia-old practice may hold the key to addressing a new crisis. As humans burn fossil fuels, oceans are absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, making seawater more acidic. At lower pH levels, clams and other shellfish struggle to build shells. As their protective structures weaken and dissolve, the animals become vulnerable to damage and predation. But studies suggest that adding shell fragments to clam beds could release carbonate into the water, potentially neutralizing acidity caused by the greenhouse gas.

To find out whether shell hash could help California’s clams survive increasingly acidic conditions, Hensel brought shells from the tidal flat back to the lab, where she crushed them with a mortar and pestle and mixed the fragments into four plastic buckets of sand. Hensel filled these buckets, and four others containing sand alone, with local seawater and added the pinky nail–sized progeny of Pacific littleneck clams collected from Bodega Bay. She bubbled carbon dioxide through the seawater in half of the buckets to increase acidity. With their delicate shells, young clams are thought to be especially vulnerable to acidification.

In the lab, Hannah Hensel bubbles carbon dioxide through the seawater in experimental clam beds to test whether mixing crushed shells into the sediment can protect young Pacific littleneck clams from acidic conditions. Photos courtesy of Hannah Hensel

After 90 days, Hensel dug up all the clams. Comparing the buckets containing more acidic seawater, she observed that the bivalves burrowed in shell hash had grown bigger than the clams in sand alone. Strangely, though, the larger clams were not heavier, and Hensel plans to cross-section the shells to assess whether the new growth was thinner or less dense.

The results inform researchers that shell hash does have a buffering effect under certain conditions, says Leah Bendell, a marine ecologist at Simon Fraser University in British Columbia, who was not involved in the study. “It was a well-done lab experiment.”

Bendell also studies the buffering power of shell hash. Working with the Tsleil-Waututh Nation, Bendell and graduate student Bridget Doyle added shell fragments to clam beds in Burrard Inlet, near Vancouver, British Columbia. In that study, hash reduced pH fluctuations in seawater seeping through the sediment, which can vary markedly with rising and falling tides. Although the reduction was limited to areas with coarse sediments, and the hash did not reduce the overall pH, Bendell sees the results as a hint of something promising. Given a longer period of time, shell hash could have a greater effect on pH in certain clam beds, she says.

Shell hash may not be a panacea for ocean acidification everywhere, but Bendell and Hensel are slowly piecing together how carbonate might help individual beaches weather caustic conditions. Next summer, when Hensel begins adding shell hash to Bodega Bay’s clam beds, she will incorporate another element of traditional sea gardening. Indigenous caretakers regularly tilled clam beds, loosening the sediment and mixing in shell fragments. This repeated digging could bring oxygen to burrowed clams, open more space in the sediments, and alter seawater chemistry, Hensel says, and she plans to measure how the physical process affects both seawater chemistry and clam growth.

Schneider is hopeful that Hensel’s work will improve the health of his community’s clam beds, and the two researchers are discussing ways to involve the Indigenous communities around Bodega Bay. “I think it would just be really rewarding to see community members from my tribe having opportunities to be back out on the landscape to interact with traditional resources in the ways that our ancestors did,” Schneider says.

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Australia begins construction of its section of giant radio telescope



Construction has got underway in Australia and South Africa of a network of antennas which, when complete, together will form the world’s largest radio telescope, the Square Kilometre Array (SKA).

The giant cross-continental telescope is expected to produce scientific results that will change our understanding of the universe.

Both South Africa and Australia have huge expanses of land in remote areas with little radio disturbance which is ideal for this kind of installation.

The idea for the telescope was first conceived in the early 1990s, but the project was plagued by delays, funding issues, and diplomatic jockeying.

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The SKA is headquartered in the United Kingdom and has 14 members: Britain, Australia, South Africa, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and The Netherlands.

The director general of the Square Kilometre Array Organisation, Philip Diamond, has described the beginning of its construction as ‘momentous’ saying it will be ‘one of humanity’s biggest-ever scientific endeavours’.

More than 130,000 Christmas tree-shaped antennas are planned in Western Australia, to be built on the traditional lands of the Wajarri Aboriginal people. In South Africa, the site will feature nearly 200 dishes in the remote Karoo region.

The large distances between the antennas, and their sheer number, mean that the telescope will pick up radio signals with unprecedented sensitivity as the SKA probes targets in the sky.

‘The two complementary telescopes will be the ears on either side of the planet, allowing us to listen to those murmurings from the deep universe which are driving such excitement in both science and deepen our understanding of the universe in which we live and the origins of life,’ says George Freeman, Britain’s Minister of State for Science, Research and Innovation.

Construction of the SKA is due to be completed in 2028.

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Asymmetry Detected in the Distribution of Galaxies




Physicists believe they have detected a striking asymmetry in the arrangements of galaxies in the sky. If confirmed, the finding would point to features of the unknown fundamental laws that operated during the Big Bang.

“If this result is real, someone’s going to get a Nobel Prize,” said Marc Kamionkowski, a physicist at Johns Hopkins University who was not involved in the analysis.

As if playing a cosmic game of Connect the Dots, the researchers drew lines between sets of four galaxies, constructing four-cornered shapes called tetrahedra. When they had built every possible tetrahedron from a catalog of 1 million galaxies, they found that tetrahedra oriented one way outnumber their mirror images.

A hint of the imbalance between tetrahedra and their mirror images was first reported by Oliver Philcox, an astrophysicist at Columbia University in New York, in a paper published in Physical Review D in September. In an independent analysis conducted simultaneously that’s now undergoing peer review, Jiamin Hou and Zachary Slepian of the University of Florida and Robert Cahn of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory detected the asymmetry with a level of statistical certainty that physicists usually consider definitive.

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But with such a blockbuster finding — and one that’s still under review — experts say caution is warranted.

“There’s no obvious reason that they’ve made a mistake,” said Shaun Hotchkiss, a cosmologist at the University of Auckland. “That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a mistake.”

The putative imbalance violates a symmetry called “parity,” an equivalence of left and right. If the observation withstands scrutiny, physicists think it must reflect an unknown, parity-violating ingredient in the primordial process that sowed the seeds of all the structure that developed in our universe.

“It’s an incredible result — really impressive,” Kamionkowski said. “Do I believe it? I’m going to wait to really celebrate.”

Left-Handed Universe

Parity was once a cherished symmetry of physics. But then, in 1957, the Chinese American physicist Chien-Shiung Wu’s nuclear decay experiments revealed that our universe indeed has a slight handedness to it: Subatomic particles involved in the weak nuclear force, which causes nuclear decay, are always magnetically oriented in the opposite direction from the one they move in, so that they spiral like the threads of a left-handed screw. The mirror-image particles — the ones like right-handed screws — don’t feel the weak force.

Wu’s revelation was shocking. “We are all rather shaken by the death of our well-beloved friend, parity,” the physicist John Blatt wrote in a letter to Wolfgang Pauli.

The left-handedness of the weak force has subtle effects that couldn’t have influenced the cosmos on galactic scales. But ever since Wu’s discovery, physicists have sought other ways in which the universe differs from its mirror image.

If, for instance, some primordial parity violation was in effect when the universe was in its infancy, it might have imprinted a twist onto the structure of the cosmos.

At or near the time of the universe’s birth, a field known as the inflaton is thought to have permeated space. A roiling, boiling medium where inflaton particles continuously bubbled up and disappeared, the inflaton field was also repulsive; for the brief time it may have existed, it would have caused our universe to rapidly expand to 100 trillion trillion times its original size. All of those quantum fluctuations of particles in the inflaton field were flung outward and frozen into the cosmos, becoming variations in the density of matter. The denser pockets continued to gravitationally coalesce to produce the galaxies and large-scale structure we see today.

In 1999, researchers including Kamionkowski considered what would happen if more than one field was present before this explosion. The inflaton field could have interacted with another field that could produce right-handed and left-handed particles. If the inflaton treated right-handed particles differently than the left-handed ones, then it could have preferentially created particles of one handedness over the other. This so-called Chern-Simons coupling would have imbued the early quantum fluctuations with a preferred handedness, which would have evolved into an imbalance of left-handed and right-handed tetrahedral arrangements of galaxies.

As for what the additional field might be, one possibility is the gravitational field. In this scenario, a parity-violating Chern-Simons interaction would occur between inflaton particles and gravitons — the quantum units of gravity — which would have popped up in the gravitational field during inflation. Such an interaction would have created a handedness in the density variations of the early universe and, consequently, in today’s large-scale structure.


In 2006, Stephon Alexander, a physicist now at Brown University, suggested that Chern-Simons gravity could also potentially solve one of the biggest mysteries in cosmology: why our universe contains more matter than antimatter. He surmised that the Chern-Simons interaction could have yielded a relative abundance of left-handed gravitons, which would in turn preferentially create left-handed matter over right-handed antimatter.

Alexander’s idea remained relatively obscure for years. When he heard about the new findings, he said, “that was a big surprise.”

Tetrahedra in the Sky

Cahn thought the possibility of solving the matter-antimatter asymmetry puzzle with parity violation in the early universe was “speculative, but also provocative.” In 2019, he decided to look for parity violation in a catalog of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. He didn’t expect to find anything but thought it would be worth a check.

To test whether the galaxy distribution respects or violates parity, he and his collaborators knew they needed to study tetrahedral arrangements of four galaxies. This is because the tetrahedron is the simplest three-dimensional shape, and only 3D objects have a chance at violating parity. To understand this, consider your hands. Because hands are 3D, there’s no way to rotate a left one to make it look like a right one. Flip your left hand over so that the thumbs of both hands are on the left, and your hands still look different — the palms face opposite ways. By contrast, if you trace a left hand on a sheet of paper and cut out the 2D image, flipping the cutout over makes it look like a right hand. The cutout and its mirror image are indistinguishable.

In 2020, Slepian and Cahn came up with a way of defining the “handedness” of a tetrahedral arrangement of galaxies in order to compare the number of left-handed and right-handed ones in the sky. First they took a galaxy and looked at the distances to three other galaxies. If the distances increased in the clockwise direction like a right-handed screw, they called the tetrahedron right-handed. If the distances increased going counterclockwise, it was left-handed.

To determine whether the universe as a whole has a preferred handedness, they had to repeat the analysis for all tetrahedra constructed from their database of 1 million galaxies. There are nearly 1 trillion trillion such tetrahedra — an intractable list to handle one at a time. But a factoring trick developed in earlier work on a different problem allowed the researchers to look at the parity of tetrahedra more holistically: Rather than assembling one tetrahedron at a time and determining its parity, they could take each galaxy in turn and group all other galaxies according to their distances from that galaxy, creating layers like the layers of an onion. By expressing the relative positions of galaxies in each layer in terms of mathematical functions of angles called spherical harmonics, they could systematically combine sets of three layers to make collective tetrahedra.

The researchers then compared the results to their expectations based on parity-preserving laws of physics. Hou led this step, analyzing fake catalogs of galaxies that had been generated by simulating the evolution of the universe starting from tiny, parity-preserving density variations. From these mock catalogs, Hou and her colleagues could determine how the tally of left- and right-handed tetrahedra randomly varies, even in a mirror-symmetric world.

The team found a “seven-sigma” level of parity violation in the real data, meaning that the imbalance between left- and right-handed tetrahedra was seven times as large as could be expected from random chance and other conceivable sources of error.

Kamionkowski called it “incredible that they were able to do that,” adding that “technically, it’s absolutely astounding. It’s a really, really, really complicated analysis.”

Philcox used similar methods (and had co-authored some earlier papers proposing such an analysis with Hou, Slepian and Cahn), but he made some different choices — for example, grouping the galaxies into fewer layers than Hou and colleagues, and omitting some problematic tetrahedra from the analysis — and therefore found a more modest 2.9-sigma violation of parity. The researchers are now studying the differences between their analyses. Even after extensive efforts to understand the data, all parties remain cautious.

Corroborating Evidence

The surprising finding hints at new physics that could potentially answer long-standing questions about the universe. But the work has only just begun.

First physicists need to verify (or falsify) the observation. New, ambitious galaxy surveys on which to repeat the analysis are already underway. The ongoing Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument survey, for instance, has logged 14 million galaxies so far and will contain more than 30 million when it’s completed. “That’ll give us an opportunity to look at this in much greater detail with much better statistics,” said Cahn.


Moreover, if the parity-violating signal is real, it could show up in data other than the distribution of galaxies. The oldest light in the sky, for example — a bath of radiation known as the cosmic microwave background, left over from the early universe — provides our earliest snapshot of spatial variations in the cosmos. The dappled pattern of this light should contain the same parity-violating correlations as the galaxies that formed later. Physicists say it should be possible to find such a signal in the light.

Another place to look will be the pattern of gravitational waves that may have been generated during inflation, called the stochastic gravitational wave background. These corkscrew-like ripples in the space-time fabric can be right-handed or left-handed, and in a parity-preserving world, they would contain equal amounts of each. So if physicists manage to measure this background and find that one handedness is favored, this would be an unambiguous, independent check of parity-violating physics in the early universe.

As the search for corroborating evidence begins, theorists will study models of inflation that could have produced the signal. With Giovanni Cabass, a theoretical physicist at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, Philcox recently used his measurement to test a slew of parity-violating models of inflation, including those of the Chern-Simons type. (They can’t yet say with certainty which model, if any, is correct.)

Alexander has also refocused his efforts on understanding Chern-Simons gravity. With collaborators including Kamionkowski and Cyril Creque-Sarbinowski of the Flatiron Institute’s Center for Computational Astrophysics, Alexander has begun working out subtle details about how Chern-Simons gravity in the early universe would influence the distribution of today’s galaxies.

“I was kind of like the lone soldier pushing this stuff for a while,” he said. “It’s good to see people taking an interest.”

Editor’s Note: The Flatiron Institute is funded by the Simons Foundation, which also supports this editorially independent magazine. In addition, Oliver Philcox receives funding from the Simons Foundation.

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