Two new solitudes — rural and urban — now define the Canadian political landscape - CBC.ca | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Politics

Two new solitudes — rural and urban — now define the Canadian political landscape – CBC.ca

Published

 on


According to Elections Canada, the metropolitan areas of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver — the country’s three biggest cities — account for 116 of Canada’s 338 ridings. And the results in those ridings help to tell the story of both the Liberal victory and a fundamental split in federal politics.

Of those 116 ridings, the Liberals won 86 — more than half of their national total. The Conservatives won just eight.

That Liberal strength in cities is part of an urban-rural split that now defines the electoral map in Canada. New research suggests the urban-rural divide between the Liberal and Conservative parties has never been wider.

But that split raises questions that go beyond partisan competition.

That new research was produced by professors David Armstrong and Zack Taylor of Western University and Jack Lucas from the University of Calgary. Using data on population density, location, economic activity and social diversity, they developed a new measure of “urbanity” that allows them to track long-term trends in party support since Confederation.

What they found is that Canada’s two major parties began to diverge in the 1960s: Liberal support began to get more urban, Conservative support began to get more rural. That trend accelerated after the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged in 2003 to become the modern Conservative Party. The gap between the two parties was larger than ever before in 2019.

Then it got even bigger in 2021. According to the work done by Armstrong, Lucas and Taylor, the Liberals won all 25 of the most urban ridings in Canada and 109 of the top 150 most urban ridings. The Conservatives won just 23 of those urban ridings.

Identity and party

Of the 150 least urban ridings, the Liberals won 34 while the Conservatives took 81.

An urban-rural political divide is not unique to Canada. But there could be many reasons explaining why Canadian politics has developed this way — everything from economic and social trends to policy choices to the lasting significance of political foundations that were built 60 years ago.

“On one side, Prime Minister [John] Diefenbaker’s identity as a small town Prairie lawyer, and his bitter criticism of business and media elites in Canada’s big cities, may have pushed professionals and wealthy voters in urban areas away from their traditional loyalties,” the researchers write.

Did John Diefenbaker’s public identification with rural Canadians over urban ‘elites’ drive a wedge between his party and city-dwelling Canadians? (Chuck Mitchell/Canadian Press)

“At the same time, a profound transformation inside the Liberal Party, in which a set of highly educated urban professionals came to play a leading role both as strategists and political candidates, appears to have increased the Liberal Party’s appeal in the urban context.”

To some extent, the divide might be accentuated by the first-past-the-post system, Taylor said. Though a colour-coded electoral map might suggest otherwise, there are still people living in rural Alberta who vote Liberal and residents of downtown Toronto who vote Conservative.

Polarization and policy

The dangers of polarization have been evident across Western democracies over the last six years. But the existence of an urban-rural divide in voting patterns isn’t necessarily cause for panic — even if it’s always important to mind the gaps.

“What I worry about is that when parties become uncompetitive in each other’s turf for very long periods of time … they can’t recruit good candidates, they can’t be visible to voters. And as a result, they don’t really hear what people in those regions want and what their hopes and aspirations and fears are,” Taylor said in an interview.

“And that means that there’s kind of a policy tin ear for whichever party manages to cobble together a winning coalition.”

After the 2019 election, some observers expressed concerns about a lack of Western representation in Justin Trudeau’s cabinet. Before that, Stephen Harper had to go to extraordinary lengths to find cabinet ministers from Vancouver and Montreal.

In their own study for the Public Policy Forum earlier this year, Peter Loewen, Sean Speer and Stephanie Bertolo used survey data from the 2019 election to compare public opinion in 84 rural ridings with the views held by voters in the other 264 “non-rural” ridings.

Divided on the big questions

The researchers stressed that “most disagreement between urban and rural Canadians is a matter of degree rather than fundamental principle” and “there is ultimately more that connects than separates urban and rural Canadians.” But they also found notable differences on a few big issues: climate change and carbon taxes, immigration and trust in government.

Those could be some of the defining political issues of the next 30 years. But how much those differences matter, Lucas said, might depend on whether urban and rural areas are simply moving along the same trajectory at different speeds or are actually diverging.

Climate change activists and a few counter-protesters supporting the oil and gas industry gather for a march and rally with Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg at the Alberta Legislature Building in Edmonton on Friday, Oct. 18, 2019. (Dave Chidley/The Canadian Press)

“People disagree in politics, along many dimensions. There are differences in the average policy positions of Canadians on gender and on region and on age and on any number of other things, including place of residence. And those disagreements in themselves are part of what it means to have competitive democratic representation,” Lucas said.

“Where they turn into polarized politics is when they’re connected to misperceptions of ‘the other’ and also kind of resentment where anything that is going to benefit the other side must be a bad thing.”

‘Somewheres’ and ‘anywheres’

In an increasingly urbanized country, the party best able to appeal to urban voters might have a significant advantage. But the Liberal Party’s dominance in urban Canada doesn’t absolve the Trudeau government of the responsibility to speak and act with all Canadians in mind.

That same responsibility to avoid stoking resentment can be applied to the Conservative Party. Last year, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole flirted with the idea that the world could be divided between “somewheres” and “anywheres.”  He didn’t stick with that thesis, at least publicly, but the Conservative platform did state that the country can’t afford “a recovery for downtown Toronto” alone.

Nothing about politics in a democracy is destined to continue uninterrupted. At some point, the electoral map might end up looking very different.

For now, the urban-rural split is a window into how federal politics has developed over the last 60 years. But, with any luck, what unites urban and rural voters will continue to transcend their differences.

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Politics

Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

Published

 on

 

WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Politics

Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version