Artist’s conception of the decommissioned IRAS satellite.Image: NASA
A pair of decommissioned satellites are at risk of colliding later today, potentially producing hundreds if not thousands of new pieces of space debris. Regardless of what happens, however, this incident illustrates our dire need for sensible space management practices.
Normally, operators on the ground can adjust the orbital inclination of their satellites in the event of a potential collision, but neither of these satellites is functional. One of the two, the joint NASA-Netherlands Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS), weighs around 1,073 kilograms (2,366 pounds) and has been in space since 1983. The other, GGSE-4 (also known as Poppy 5B), was launched in the late 1960s by the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory and weighs 83 kg (183 lbs).
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At a relative velocity of 14.7 kilometers (9.1 miles) per second, a collision between these two satellites would generate a tremendous amount of space debris, increasing the odds of yet another collision at some point in the future. The decommissioned satellites will experience their closest approach at 6:39 p.m. ET Wednesday (January 29, 2020) in the skies above eastern North America—but don’t worry, the debris would stay in low Earth orbit (LEO).
The potential collision was detected by LeoLabs, a private company that tracks satellites and debris in low Earth orbit. The company operates three radar stations, two in the U.S. and one in New Zealand, and it can track objects as small as 10 centimeters (3.9 inches) in diameter.
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In a recent update, LeoLabs tweeted their latest assessment of the situation. The odds of a collision are back to 1 in 100, after the company had briefly assigned a 1 in 1,000 chance earlier today. The satellites will swing past each other at a distance of around 12 meters (39.5 feet)—an extremely close shave by any measure. The closest approach will happen at an altitude of 900 kilometers (560 miles) above Earth’s surface.
An even more alarming calculation from LeoLabs takes into account the 18-meter-long (59-foot) booms attached to GGSE-4. With those taken into consideration, the odds of a collision jump to 1 in 20, according to LeoLabs.
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Conceptual image of an earlier model, the Poppy 4D, with its long booms extended.Image: NRO/USN
These odds may seem (relatively) low, but satellite operators ring the alarm bells when the odds approach 1 in 10,000. So while the chance of a collision seems slim, this is a matter of serious concern. In an email to Gizmodo, McDowell said two satellites coming this close together “is still rare” but is becoming “more frequent as LEO gets more crowded.”
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The current situation with IRAS and GGSE-4 stems from their immobile status, but McDowell said this problem will eventually extend to live satellites. Operators will have to move an increasing number of satellites to avoid collisions, which could potentially put them in the paths of other satellites “depending on the accuracy of predictions,” he said, adding that another issue will be the ability to perform one-day-ahead satellite predictions. Ideally, he hopes that satellite operators will eventually work at 10-meter (33-foot) resolutions, instead of the current 100-meter (328–foot) level of accuracy. That “would help,” said McDowell, “but we don’t know how to get there.”
“There have always been close calls in space—not to mention accidental collisions—but we are certainly becoming more aware of them as our ability to identify and monitor objects in space through space situational awareness improves,” Jessica West, a program officer at Project Ploughshares and the managing editor of its Space Security Index, wrote in an email to Gizmodo. “For active satellites, this means that there is more opportunity to maneuver to avoid a close call. But for dead satellites, we are still stuck waiting and watching with our fingers crossed.”
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Chart showing unintentional collisions between space objects. Image: Space Security Index/Jessica West
That LEO is becoming overcrowded is no secret. Figures from the U.S. Space Surveillance network shows that roughly 29,000 objects larger than 10 centimeters (3.9 inches) are currently in LEO, many of which are zipping around at speeds reaching 10 kilometers (6 miles) per second. This figure is set to increase due to the lower costs of launching objects into space and the trend toward more compact satellites. The rise of megaconstellations, such as SpaceX’s Starlink, will result in thousands more satellites.
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Sure, LEO seems vast, but the amount of space in space is somewhat of an illusion. Space and time shrink owing to the tremendous speeds involved. Space traffic is not like it is on Earth’s surface, where velocities are measured in terms of distance per hour rather than per second. Satellite motions in space are akin to watching movies in fast-forward.
McDowell described it as an n-squared problem. A 10-fold increase in the number of satellites results in a 100-fold increase in the number of close misses and actual collisions, he said, “adding that “we’re about due for one.”
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Even one collision would be bad. If IRAS and GGSE-4 smash into each other tonight, the resulting kinetic energy would blow debris into neighboring orbits, further heightening the odds of another collision. This could result in a hypothetical cascade known as a Kessler Syndrome, in which an ever-growing cloud of space debris eventually makes LEO inaccessible.
In terms of technical solutions to the problem, West says we could reduce the amount of defunct satellites in orbit by “designing them with the ability and intention to de-orbit at the end of their service lifespan.” Satellites in LEO, namely those below 600 kilometers (370 miles), will “naturally be dragged down into Earth’s atmosphere and disintegrate within 25 years,” West told Gizmodo, but “25 years is a long time—too long given the intensity to which we are using this orbit and the tens of thousands of new satellites potentially being launched.”
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That said, IRAS and GGSE-4 are much higher, around 800 kilometers (500 miles), an altitude in which objects “will remain in orbit for decades unless intentionally de-orbited, which is not the norm,” said West.
Several initiatives are currently underway to devise ways of decluttering LEO, but these solutions come with their own drawbacks, including tremendous costs and numerous safety considerations. Ultimately, West says this latest incident “points to the need for better, global governance of activities in outer space.”
NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.
Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.
She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.
Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.
“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.
It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.
Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.
Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.
Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.
“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.
He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.
Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.
TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.
Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.
Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.
The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.
The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.
It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.
Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.
Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.
Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.
Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.
Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.
The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”
VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.
Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”
Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.
“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.
B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.
Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.
Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.
Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.
“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”
Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”
“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.
Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.
“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.
