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U.K. Economy Slows as Supply Chain Delays Hold Up Car Makers – Financial Post

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(Bloomberg) — The U.K. economy slowed more sharply than expected in February after storms hit construction work and supply chain delays held up output from carmakers.

The 0.1% expansion followed a robust 0.8% gain in January, Office for National Statistics figures showed on Monday. Growth of 0.2% was forecast by economists. 

The figures indicate weakness even before the war in Ukraine further upset the flow of goods into Britain. Inflation, which is squeezing consumer living standards at the sharpest pace in living memory, may provide a further drag on the economy in the coming months.

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“The U.K. economy was losing steam even before the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” said Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce. “February’s slowdown is likely to be the start of a prolonged period of considerably weaker growth.”

The pound fell below $1.30 for a second day, dropping 0.2% to $1.2993.

The figures left overall economic output 1.5% above its level in February 2020, before the pandemic struck. Construction fell in the month, driven solely by a decrease in repair and maintenance work. New business increased slightly. Storms from Feb. 16 to Feb. 21 delayed some projects, and some builders said they’re having difficulty getting materials.

The rise in GDP, which reflected continued easing of coronavirus restrictions, leaves Britain on course for growth of around 1% in the first quarter. However, that may be a high-water mark, with soaring energy bills and inflation set to deliver an unprecedented hit to living standards this year. 

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What Bloomberg Economics Says …

“From here, the cost-of-living crisis and war in Ukraine is likely to mean a slowdown in activity. But we doubt that will be enough to deter the Bank of England from hiking rates in May. Still, the weak growth outlook will probably mean the central bank pauses its hiking cycle in the second half.”

–Dan Hanson, Bloomberg Economics. Click for the REACT.

The pressure facing households was underlined by the latest Bloomberg monthly survey, published Monday. Economists now expect inflation to peak at 8.1% in the second quarter, up from a previous forecast of 7.6% and the fastest quarterly rate since 1991. 

“Near-term challenges to the outlook have ramped up, with a growing cost-of-living crunch set to weigh on growth,” said Alpesh Paleja, lead economist at the CBI, Britain’s biggest business lobby group. “Businesses are also grappling with headwinds from the Ukraine conflict, which is exacerbating cost pressures and supply chain disruption.”

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The Bank of England is forecast to deliver two further rate hikes this year, taking benchmark borrowing costs to the highest since the financial crisis. Growth is expected to average 0.3% a quarter for the rest of the year. 

Growth in February was led by service industries, which expanded 0.2%. Hospitality and tourism benefited from the easing of Covid restrictions. Vaccinations and testing fell during the month, weighing on the health care sector. Also dragging on services was the retail sector, where sales declined. 

Exports, excluding precious metals, swung to growth of 7.8% in February from a 20.5% decline in January. It was driven by a 25.4% increase in exports to the bloc, and a 3% drop in imports from the EU.

The ONS advised caution in interpreting the exports data due to a change in the methodology for data collection, but added: “Current investigations indicate the continued strong level of imports from the EU is predominantly the result of genuine increases in trade.”

The ONS said it was too early to see the effect of Russian sanctions on U.K. trade after they were imposed on Feb. 24.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Bloomberg.com

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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