U.S. consumers put economy on moderate growth path in third quarter - The Globe and Mail | Canada News Media
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U.S. consumers put economy on moderate growth path in third quarter – The Globe and Mail

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U.S. economic growth nudged up in the third quarter and the economy appears to have maintained the moderate pace of expansion as the year ended, supported by a strong labor market.

Other data on Friday showed consumer spending increased solidly in November, adding to a string of upbeat data that have helped to quell recession fears which gripped financial markets in the summer.

The longest expansion in history, now in its 11th year, remains on track thanks to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year. The U.S. central bank last week kept rates steady and signaled borrowing costs could remain unchanged at least through 2020.

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Though growth has been relatively strong, economists did not expect the economy to achieve the Trump administration’s 3.0 per cent target this year. Still, the resilient economy could offer some respite for President Donald Trump who was impeached on charges of abusing his office on Wednesday by the Democratic-led House of Representatives.

“The data will comfort the Fed that the economy is in ‘a good place’ and monetary policy is ‘appropriate’,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York.

Gross domestic product increased at a 2.1 per cent annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in its third estimate of third-quarter GDP. That was unrevised from November’s estimate. The economy grew at a 2.0 per cent pace in the April-June period.

Despite the unrevised estimate, which was in line with economists’ expectations, consumer spending was stronger than previously reported in the third quarter.

There were also upgrades to business spending on nonresidential structures such as power infrastructure, which limited the drop in overall business investment. That offset downward revisions to investment in homebuilding and inventory accumulation. Imports, which are a drag to GDP growth, were higher than previously estimated.

Growth estimates for the fourth quarter range from as low as a 1.5 per cent rate to as high as a 2.3 per cent pace. Growth has slowed from the 3.1 per cent rate notched in the first three months of the year in part because of the 17-month trade war between the United States and China and the fading stimulus from last year’s $1.5 trillion tax cut package.

When measured from the income side, the economy grew at a 2.1 per cent rate in the last quarter, rather than the 2.4 per cent pace estimated in November. Gross domestic income (GDI) increased at a rate of 0.9 per cent in the second quarter.

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The revision to the income side of the growth ledger reflected a downgrade to corporate profits.

After-tax profits without inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustment, which corresponds to S&P 500 profits, were revised down to show them declining $23.1 billion, or at a rate of 1.2 per cent. Profits were previously reported to have decreased $11.3 billion, or at a rate of 0.6 per cent in the third quarter.

They were in part held down by legal settlements with Facebook and Google. Profits increased at a 3.3 per cent rate in the second quarter. The average of GDP and GDI, also referred to as gross domestic output and considered a better measure of economic activity, also increased at a 2.1 per cent rate in the July-September period.

The data boosted the dollar against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Treasury prices fell. Stocks on Wall Street were treading higher, pushing key indexes to new record highs.

MODERATE GROWTH PATH

The economy’s moderate growth speed appears to have persisted in the fourth quarter. In a second report on Friday, the Commerce Department said consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.4 per cent last month as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles and spent more on healthcare. Consumption increased 0.3 per cent in October.

Consumer spending is being supported by the lowest unemployment rate in nearly half a century. But inflation stayed tame last month and could remain so for a while. The University of Michigan’s survey of consumers showed households’ one-year inflation expectations fell in December to 2.3 per cent, the lowest in three years, from 2.5 per cent in November.

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“If this month’s drop in inflation expectations is sustained or intensifies, it would be concerning to the Fed, which is trying to lift inflation, and would suggest easier monetary policy than would prevail otherwise,” said Scott Hoyt, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Despite the economy improving prospects, risks remain. Boeing’s decision this week to suspend production of its best-selling 737 Max jetliner in January after two fatal crashes of the now-grounded aircraft means the fallout is likely to drag into 2020. That could pressure the fragile manufacturing sector, which was starting to stabilize as the U.S.-China trade tensions ebb.

Economists estimate that Boeing’s biggest assembly-line halt in more than 20 years, which is expected to wreak havoc on supply chains, could cut first-quarter 2020 gross domestic product growth by at least half a percentage point.

In the GDP report, growth in consumer spending was raised to a 3.2 per cent rate in the third quarter from the previously reported 2.9 per cent pace. Inventories rose at a $69.4 billion pace instead of the $79.8 billion rate reported last month.

Business investment dropped at a 2.3 per cent rate in the third quarter, rather than contracting at a 2.7 per cent pace as previously reported. Spending on nonresidential structures such as mining exploration, shafts and wells declined at a 9.9 per cent rate instead of the previously reported 12.0 per cent pace.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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