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U.S. core capital goods orders beat expectations; business investment rebounding – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – New orders for key U.S.-made capital goods increased more than expected in August and demand for the prior month was stronger than previously estimated, suggesting a rebound in business spending on equipment was underway after a prolonged slump.

The upbeat report from the Commerce Department on Friday, however, did not change views that the economy’s recovery from the COVID-19 recession was slowing as government money to help businesses and tens of millions of unemployed Americans runs out. New coronavirus cases are rising in some parts of the country. That could crimp consumer spending, with retail sales already slowing.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week stressed the need for more fiscal stimulus, telling lawmakers on Thursday that it could make the difference between continued recovery and a much slower economic slog. Another rescue package appears unlikely before the Nov. 3 presidential election.

Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans, rose 1.8% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for July was revised up to show these so-called core capital goods orders increasing 2.5% instead of 1.9% as previously estimated.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast core capital goods orders gaining 0.5% in August.

Core capital goods orders last month were boosted by increased demand for machinery, primary metals, computers and electronic products. But orders for fabricated metal products and electrical equipment, appliances and components fell.

U.S. stocks fell. The dollar was higher against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

STRONG THIRD QUARTER EXPECTED

Shipments of core capital goods increased 1.5% last month. Core capital goods shipments are used to calculate equipment spending in the government’s gross domestic product measurement. They advanced 2.8% in July. Business investment tumbled at a record 26% annualized rate in the second quarter, with spending on equipment collapsing at an all-time pace of 35.9%. Investment in equipment has contracted for five straight quarters.

Economic activity rebounded sharply over the summer as businesses reopened after mandatory closures in mid-March to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Gross domestic product is expected to rebound at as much as a record 32% annualized rate in the third quarter after tumbling at a 31.7% rate in the April-June period, the worst performance since the government started keeping records in 1947.

But fading fiscal stimulus is casting a cloud over growth prospects for the fourth quarter. Goldman Sachs on Wednesday cut its fourth-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 3% rate from a 6% pace, citing “lack of further fiscal support.”

Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft that are meant to last three years or more, rose 0.4% in August after jumping 11.7% in July. Durable goods orders were supported by a 0.5% rise in orders for transportation equipment, though demand for motor vehicles and defense aircraft eased.

There were no orders for civilian aircraft reported for the second straight month in August.

Boeing has struggled with cancellations as airlines grapple with sharply reduced demand for air travel because of the pandemic. The grounding of Boeing’s best-selling 737 MAX jets since March 2019 after two crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia has also weighed on the company.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)

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Economy

S&P/TSX composite down more than 200 points, U.S. stock markets also fall

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was down more than 200 points in late-morning trading, weighed down by losses in the technology, base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets also fell.

The S&P/TSX composite index was down 239.24 points at 22,749.04.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 312.36 points at 40,443.39. The S&P 500 index was down 80.94 points at 5,422.47, while the Nasdaq composite was down 380.17 points at 16,747.49.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.80 cents US compared with 74.00 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down US$1.07 at US$68.08 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.26 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$2.10 at US$2,541.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was down four cents at US$4.10 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in technology, financial and energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also pushed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 171.41 points at 23,298.39.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 278.37 points at 41,369.79. The S&P 500 index was up 38.17 points at 5,630.35, while the Nasdaq composite was up 177.15 points at 17,733.18.

The Canadian dollar traded for 74.19 cents US compared with 74.23 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up US$1.75 at US$76.27 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up less than a penny at US$2.10 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$18.70 at US$2,556.50 an ounce and the December copper contract was down less than a penny at US$4.22 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 29, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Crypto Market Bloodbath Amid Broader Economic Concerns

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The crypto market has recently experienced a significant downturn, mirroring broader risk asset sell-offs. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price dropped by 24%, reaching $53,000, while Ethereum plummeted nearly a third to $2,340. Major altcoins also suffered, with Cardano down 27.7%, Solana 36.2%, Dogecoin 34.6%, XRP 23.1%, Shiba Inu 30.1%, and BNB 25.7%.

The severe downturn in the crypto market appears to be part of a broader flight to safety, triggered by disappointing economic data. A worse-than-expected unemployment report on Friday marked the beginning of a technical recession, as defined by the Sahm Rule. This rule identifies a recession when the three-month average unemployment rate rises by at least half a percentage point from its lowest point in the past year.

Friday’s figures met this threshold, signaling an abrupt economic downshift. Consequently, investors sought safer assets, leading to declines in major stock indices: the S&P 500 dropped 2%, the Nasdaq 2.5%, and the Dow 1.5%. This trend continued into Monday with further sell-offs overseas.

The crypto market’s rapid decline raises questions about its role as either a speculative asset or a hedge against inflation and recession. Despite hopes that crypto could act as a risk hedge, the recent crash suggests it remains a speculative investment.

Since the downturn, the crypto market has seen its largest three-day sell-off in nearly a year, losing over $500 billion in market value. According to CoinGlass data, this bloodbath wiped out more than $1 billion in leveraged positions within the last 24 hours, including $365 million in Bitcoin and $348 million in Ether.

Khushboo Khullar of Lightning Ventures, speaking to Bloomberg, argued that the crypto sell-off is part of a broader liquidity panic as traders rush to cover margin calls. Khullar views this as a temporary sell-off, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

Josh Gilbert, an eToro market analyst, supports Khullar’s perspective, suggesting that the expected Federal Reserve rate cuts could benefit crypto assets. “Crypto assets have sold off, but many investors will see an opportunity. We see Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are now likely to come sharper than expected, as hugely positive for crypto assets,” Gilbert told Coindesk.

Despite the recent volatility, crypto continues to make strides toward mainstream acceptance. Notably, Morgan Stanley will allow its advisors to offer Bitcoin ETFs starting Wednesday. This follows more than half a year after the introduction of the first Bitcoin ETF. The investment bank will enable over 15,000 of its financial advisors to sell BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. This move is seen as a significant step toward the “mainstreamization” of crypto, given the lengthy regulatory and company processes in major investment banks.

The recent crypto market downturn highlights its volatility and the broader economic concerns affecting all risk assets. While some analysts see the current situation as a temporary sell-off and a buying opportunity, others caution against the speculative nature of crypto. As the market evolves, its role as a mainstream alternative asset continues to grow, marked by increasing institutional acceptance and new investment opportunities.

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