By David Henry
NEW YORK (Reuters) – A U.S. dollar rebound against major currencies was interrupted on Wednesday after Canada‘s central bank signaled it could start an interest rate hike in 2022 and reduced the scope of its asset-buying program.
The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers, turned down after the announcement from the Bank of Canada and was off by 0.1% in late afternoon (1946 GMT) in New York after having been up as much as 0.24% for the day. The greenback lost about 1% against the Canadian dollar.
Earlier the U.S. dollar had rebounded from a seven-week low hit overnight against major currencies as broad weakness in stock markets triggered by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases in India and Japan encouraged a retreat to the safe-haven appeal of the greenback.
The safety bid had also supported the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen as the bright outlook for a global recovery dimmed.
But the catalyst for the move between the two North American dollars on Wednesday was a reminder that the outlook for changes in interest rates have been key to currencies as recoveries unfold. The greenback weakened through much of April as U.S. interest rates declined and as traders bet that vaccinations would open up a stronger global economic recovery and drive demand for riskier and higher-yielding currencies.
The greenback’s bounce had come with softer U.S. Treasury yields as investors reconsidered how long it might take before inflation forces the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy and as they saw prices for oil and stocks hit on Tuesday by the prospect of a slower global recovery because of more COVID-19 cases.
The Fed’s Open Market Committee meets next week and the European Central Bank decides policy on Thursday. Though neither is expected to signal a change in policy now, traders may hold back from big bets for a few days, said Joseph Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.
“I think the market is just going to play it carefully in case the Fed changes its tune,” Manimbo said.
At the moment, he sees the market acting as though it is at “somewhat of a crossroads for the dollar given that it has struggled this month.”
Some analysts have said that a new inclination by the Bank of Canada to tighten monetary policy could prove to foreshadow changes by other central banks.
The Bank of Canada sharply raised its outlook for the economy and reduced the scope of its large-scale asset-buying program while keeping its key interest rate steady. It said the pandemic will be “less detrimental” to the economy than it had thought.
The central bank’s message brought back some of the appetite for risk, which carried over to other commodity-linked currencies, strategists at ANZ Research noted. The Australian and New Zealand dollars gained about 0.5%.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 1.58% on the news from Canada and then hovered around 1.57%, not far from the 1.60% level at the start of the week, as the note consolidated gains after a reversal that had driven yields to a 14-month high at 1.7760% last month. The note held steady even after an auction of 20-year bonds showed strong demand.
The biggest casualty of the dollar’s rise in Wednesday trading was the euro, with the single currency weakening as much as 0.24%. It was last flat at $1.2032 after touching a seven-week high of $1.2079 overnight.
The Japanese yen, often seen as a safer refuge than the dollar, gained against the greenback to 107.86 but then drifted back to 108.08.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin traded around $55,500, consolidating after its dip to as low as $51,541.16 on Sunday. It set a record high at $64,895.22 on April 14.
Graphic: EURUSD and CESI – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/yzdpxbkwdpx/EURUSD%20and%20CESI.JPG
(Reporting by David Henry in New York and Saikat Chatterjee in London; Editing by Will Dunham, Hugh Lawson, Jonathan Oatis and Sonya Hepinstall)
China Vows Better Policy Support to Economy as Headwinds Mount – BNN
(Bloomberg) — Chinese policy makers reiterated the need to fine-tune economic policies as the world’s second-largest economy faces increasing headwinds from virus outbreaks and high commodity prices.
Policy should be preemptive and coordinated across cycles, the State Council, the equivalent of China’s cabinet, said in a statement after a meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang Wednesday. Governments at all levels should maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies and enhance their effectiveness, while also do a good job in preventing and controlling virus cases, it said.
Efforts are needed to better coordinate fiscal, financial and employment policies in order to “stabilize reasonable expectations by the market,” it said.
China again vowed to make sure the economy is operating within a reasonable range, with further measures to boost consumption, guiding private capital to play a better role in expanding investment, and ensuring stable growth in foreign trade and foreign capital, according to the statement. While the employment situation is stable this year, efforts are still needed to maintain employment and help companies, it said.
The economy took a knock in August from stringent virus controls and tight curbs on property. While China’s Covid zero approach helped to quickly quash the infections, retail sales growth suffered, slowing to 2.5% in August.
Facing the continued commodity boom, the State Council also pledged to use more market-based measures to stabilize commodity prices and ensure supplies of power and natural gas during the winter.
©2021 Bloomberg L.P.
UAE Says It's Unwinding Pandemic Stimulus as Economy Recovers – Bloomberg
The United Arab Emirates has begun winding down an economic support program launched in response to the coronavirus pandemic as the economy shows signs of gradual recovery, the central bank said in a statement.
The reduced reserve requirements for banks won’t change for now and neither will the lower loan-to-value ratio required for first-time home buyers seeking mortgage loans, the bank said. The loan deferral component of the Targeted Economic Support Scheme will expire by the end of 2021 with financial institutions able to carry on tapping a collateralized 50-billion-dirham ($13.6 billion) liquidity facility until the middle of 2022, in line with earlier guidance.
The Caregiving Economy – The Atlantic
Care work has long been indispensable and invaluable. Indispensable: It is the work that makes all other work possible. Invaluable, quite literally: Our society is incapable of valuing it properly.
The sector of the American economy devoted to care—of children and the elderly and people with disabilities—is valued at $648 billion. That’s larger than the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. And yet most individual caregivers are criminally underpaid. That’s because caregiving is viewed either as a “labor of love,” in which case it can never be priced without destroying its essence, or as a service so basic that anyone can do it, in which case it is priced lower than dog walking or waitressing.
Recognizing the true value and potential of care, socially as well as economically, depends on a different understanding of what care actually is: not a service but a relationship that depends on human connection. It is the essence of what Jamie Merisotis, the president of the nonprofit Lumina Foundation, calls “human work”: the “work only people can do.” This makes it all the more essential in an age when workers face the threat of being replaced by machines.
When we use the word in an economic sense, care is a bundle of services: feeding, dressing, bathing, toileting, and assisting. Robots could perform all of those functions; in countries such as Japan, sometimes they already do. But that work is best described as caretaking, comparable to what the caretaker of a property provides by watering a garden or fixing a gate.
What transforms those services into caregiving, the support we want for ourselves and for those we love, is the existence of a relationship between the person providing care and the person being cared for. Not just any relationship, but one that is affectionate, or at least considerate and respectful. Most human beings cannot thrive without connection to others, a point underlined by the depression and declining mental capacities of many seniors who have been isolated during the pandemic.
The best care goes further. The goal is not simply to provide comfort or sustenance, but to enable and empower, to develop or maintain the capabilities of another human being. All parents or other caregivers of young children, for instance, know that bath time, mealtime, or even time on the changing table is scaffolding for talking, playing, or teaching: igniting young minds and shaping young brains. At the other end of life, good care consists of enabling an older person to have what the doctor and writer Atul Gawande calls his or her “best possible day”—the best day possible under the circumstances of a particular illness or condition.
Extend the idea of developing or maintaining human abilities beyond childhood and old age, and an entire vista of care jobs opens up. Call it the “care-plus economy.” It is generating all sorts of new jobs. Coaching, for instance, is a rapidly expanding career category, and not just on sports fields. There are life coaches, career coaches, and health and education coaches who guide people through social services. These are all jobs that enable others to perform at their best.
Education is a care-plus job. Lelac Almagor, a fourth-grade teacher, wrote in an essay for The New York Times, “I’m not ashamed to say that child care is at the heart of the work I do. I teach children reading and writing, yes, but I also watch over them, remind them to be kind and stay safe, plan games and activities to help them grow.”
The number of community health workers, a job category pioneered in poorer countries, is increasing in the United States. The jobs have different titles, but their core function is to connect people to the health system. The Baltimore Health Corps, for example, tackled both the health and economic crises created by the pandemic by hiring nearly 300 unemployed or furloughed community members as contact tracers, care coordinators, or administrative staff.
Academic advisers once confined their role to signing off on students’ course selections, but today they have become crucial to keeping students in college and helping them make the most of their experience. Technology has made a big difference, as it will in other care-plus jobs. In explaining Georgia State University’s successful retention of first-generation college students, Vice Provost Timothy Renick points to advising powered by predictive analytics. By monitoring students closely, the advising office gains information about when they are most likely to be discouraged and think about dropping out, and hence when personal interventions can be most effective.
The next frontier of the care-plus economy will be an explosion of mental-health jobs. Traditional therapy with a high price tag cannot meet Americans’ needs. But peer counselors, behavioral-health coaches, and technology-enabled support systems are filling the gap. Crisis Text Line, for instance, analyzes data to learn when depressed people are most likely to act on suicidal thoughts and how best to stop them.
One of us, Hilary, has worked in Britain to expand caregiving networks. In 2007 she co-designed a program called Circle, which is part social club, part concierge service. Members pay a small monthly fee, and in return get access to fun activities and practical support from members and helpers in the community. More than 10,000 people have participated, and evaluations show that members feel less lonely and more capable. The program has also reduced the money spent on formal services; Circle members are less likely, for example, to be readmitted to the hospital.
The mutual-aid societies that mushroomed into existence across the United States during the pandemic reflect the same philosophy. The core of a mutual-aid network is the principle of “solidarity not charity”: a group of community members coming together on an equal basis for the common good. These societies draw on a long tradition of “collective care” developed by African American, Indigenous, and immigrant groups as far back as the 18th century.
President Joe Biden has proposed spending $400 billion on home- and community-based care. Such support is crucial not only for the people being cared for, but for the professionals who provide that care—overwhelmingly Black and brown women, many of whom work for below minimum wage and receive few if any benefits. Suppose, however, that these workers were part of a new social sector based on community care, in which government and nonprofit organizations partnered to feed, house, treat, educate, or employ community members in part by embedding them in networks that would meet their needs in the round. Creating this sector will require not only a mix of government, private, and philanthropic funding, but also a new social contract about what we owe one another and what we should expect from the government.
Care jobs help humans flourish, and, properly understood and compensated, they can power a growing sector of the economy, strengthen our society, and increase our well-being. Goods are things that people buy and own; services are functions that people pay for. Relationships require two people and a connection between them. We don’t really have an economic category for that, but we should.
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