U.S. economy can withstand Fed tightening, Omicron surge, Powell says | Canada News Media
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U.S. economy can withstand Fed tightening, Omicron surge, Powell says

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a congressional hearing that pointed to his likely confirmation for a second term as head of the U.S. central bank, said on Tuesday the economy should weather the current COVID-19 surge with only “short-lived” impacts and was ready for the start of tighter monetary policy.

Powell was openly endorsed by Republicans and Democrats on the Senate Banking Committee in a session which focused largely on how the Fed planned to address inflation running at multi-decade highs, why the central bank misdiagnosed the surge in price increases, and what stricter monetary policy would mean for job growth.

The Fed chief said the central bank was determined to ensure that high inflation did not become “entrenched,” and that far from diminishing job growth, a turn to higher policy interest rates and a runoff of its asset holdings was necessary to keep the current economic expansion underway.

If prices continue spiking, the Fed could be forced to push through a sharper rise in interest rates this year than the three quarter-percentage-point hikes https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-prepares-stiffen-inflation-response-post-transitory-world-2021-12-15 its policymakers currently anticipate, risking a return to recession.

“Inflation is running very far above target. The economy no longer needs or wants the very accommodative policies we have had in place,” Powell said in his testimony.

Yet with the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate near zero and nearly $9 trillion in assets on its books, “it is a long road” to anything close to restrictive policy, Powell said. In the meantime, Fed actions “should not have negative effects on the employment market,” he added.

“You need to focus on getting inflation under control because you’re not going to have maximum employment without price stability.”

‘A BIT NIMBLE’

The hearing had the potential to be combative. Some Democrats have announced their opposition to the renomination of Powell, who was elevated to the top Fed job by former President Donald Trump, and criticized his oversight of Wall Street; a stock trading scandal and the resignation of several top officials has tarred the Fed’s image; and some Republicans have argued he is letting the central bank become partisan on issues like climate change and economic inequality.

But it was largely staid and focused on core economic issues, with Powell offering his fullest comments yet on how the unprecedented rise in coronavirus cases has affected his outlook.

Despite the disruptions to schooling, travel and even some core services, “what we are seeing is an economy that functions through these waves of COVID,” Powell said.

The dominant theme, if there was one, centered around inflation, the Fed’s misdiagnosis of it last year as “transitory,” and of the central bank’s plans to get in front of it now that it is running well above the 2% target.

Powell said he still felt that while the level of price increases required the Fed to act, some relief would come from beyond monetary policy as global supply chains start to catch up with demand. Mistakenly expecting that adjustment to happen fast, Powell said, is why the Fed at first dismissed rising inflation last year as likely to fade without a Fed response, only to see prices continue to surge to levels not seen since the inflation scares of the 1970s and 1980s.

He said he now thinks inflation will ease by the middle of this year, but that the Fed stood ready to tighten borrowing costs as needed to be sure it does.

“We are going to have to be humble but a bit nimble,” Powell said, in deciding when and how fast to raise interest rates and change the Fed’s asset holdings, which have ballooned as a result of its pandemic-related support for the economy.

Powell gave no fresh hint about the timing for the liftoff in interest rates, expected by many analysts to begin in March. He also said no decision had been made about when to let the size of the central bank’s asset holdings decline, but that it was likely to happen “sooner and faster” than it did following the 2007-2009 recession, when the Fed waited about two years after an initial rate increase to shrink its balance sheet.

U.S. stocks, which started the year on a weak note as the Omicron variant fueled a surge in COVID-19 cases and investors repositioned for a Fed more intent on containing inflation, rose during Powell’s testimony. Yields on shorter-dated Treasury securities fell from pandemic-era highs hit earlier in the day.

RATE HIKES

The hearing was a first step in Powell’s expected confirmation to a new four-year term. Lael Brainard, currently a Fed governor, will be questioned by the same panel on Thursday for promotion to a four-year term as Fed vice chair.

At the start of Tuesday’s session, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown, the panel’s chair, and Senator Pat Toomey, its senior Republican, endorsed Powell’s management of the Fed’s response to the pandemic, even as they raised questions about its next steps.

“I believe you’ve shown the leadership” to lead the Fed through debates over inflation, regulation, and an ethics scandal over stock trading by senior officials, Brown said.

Toomey said he was concerned that the Fed’s robust response to the pandemic may now be stoking inflation and “could become the new normal,” and repeated his criticism of the central bank delving into what he regards as political issues like climate change and inequality.

In December, the Fed decided to end its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities – a legacy of its nearly two-year battle with the economic fallout of the pandemic – by March, and signaled it could raise interest rates three times this year.

Financial markets are pricing a slightly more aggressive pace of four rate hikes this year.

(Reporting by Howard SchneiderEditing by Chris Reese and Paul Simao)

Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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