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U.S. Economy Can’t Muster a Win Big Enough to Derail Treasuries – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — The lesson for investors backing higher Treasury yields this week was clear: A good growth story is no match for the virus-related fears gripping the market.

It will be tough for the U.S. economy to serve up numbers much stronger in the coming days than what investors just saw. Yields did climb more than 15 basis points from the week’s lows on surprisingly healthy manufacturing and services data, but the move had lost stamina by the time of Friday’s robust payrolls report. The world’s borrowing benchmark rate is stuck around 1.6% and probably tilted lower barring assurances from health authorities that the deadly coronavirus is under control.

While inflation dominates the coming week’s economic news, Treasury investors probably aren’t going to worry about any pickup in price pressures until the Federal Reserve does. And testimony from Chairman Jerome Powell is unlikely to signal any change in the central bank’s patient stance — he’s far more likely to highlight rising global risks.

“It’s clear there’s a downward bias in yields, and until we have some scare in inflation I think that stays,” said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “The coronavirus may dampen global commodity prices, so if anything it takes a little wind out of the sails of inflation.”

As for data that may dent Treasuries in the coming week, retail sales and consumer sentiment are forecast to show the foundations of the record U.S. expansion remain intact. And while a heavy freight of supply might normally pressure yields higher, Priya Misra at TD Securities reckons the current appetite for government securities can easily absorb the combined $84 billion of 3-, 10- and 30-year debt ahead next week.

Cap on Yields

Misra, global head of rates strategy at TD, says that until the Fed shifts to a more hawkish stance, the 10-year yield is capped at 1.7%, leaving it more room to fall than to rise.

Equities markets may bring more suspense, as indexes near all-time highs could be vulnerable to disappointments in the coming crop of earnings, Misra says.

“I look at profit margins and they’re declining — if we get an earnings scare, I think this story unravels,” she said.

The apparently blithe mood in stocks — at least until Friday’s declines — may be more consistent with the strength in Treasuries than it seems, if it’s based on the assumption of Fed support, in Misra’s view. That would also gel with the rates market’s pricing for more than a full rate cut as soon as September. The Federal Reserve Board said this week that the outbreak presented a “new risk” to the economic outlook for the U.S.

“The reason equities can do well is the Fed has essentially told us if things are bad they’ve got our back, and if things are good they’ll let it run,” Misra said. “I think we’re pricing in this Fed put.”

What to Watch

Traders will also be watching the results from Tuesday’s New Hampshire Democratic primary for the latest read on which candidate is ascendantThe New York Fed will release new schedules on Feb. 13 for Treasury purchases and repo operationsHere’s the economic calendar:Feb. 11: NFIB small business optimism; JOLTS job openingsFeb. 12: MBA mortgage applications; monthly budget statementFeb. 13: Consumer price index; jobless claims; real average earnings; Bloomberg consumer comfortFeb. 14: Import/export prices; retail sales; industrial production; capacity utilization; Bloomberg U.S. economic survey; business inventories; University of Michigan sentimentFed speakers are everywhere, and the chairman’s on Capitol Hill:Feb. 10: Governor Michelle Bowman; San Francisco Fed’s Mary Daly; Philadelphia Fed’s Patrick HarkerFeb. 11: Daly; Powell addresses the House Financial Services Panel; Vice Chairman Randal Quarles; St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard; Minneapolis Fed’s Neel KashkariFeb. 12: Harker; Powell before Senate Banking PanelFeb. 13: Senate panel holds hearing for Fed nominees Judy Shelton, Christopher Waller; New York Fed’s John WilliamsFeb. 14: Cleveland Fed’s Loretta MesterThe first coupon sales for the quarter are on the way:Feb. 10: $45 billion of 13-week bills; $39 billion of 26-week billsFeb. 11: $30 billion 56-day cash management bills; $38 billion of 3-year notesFeb. 12: $27 billion of 10-year notesFeb. 13: 4-, 8-week bills; $19 billion of 30-year bonds

–With assistance from Alexandra Harris.

To contact the reporter on this story: Emily Barrett in New York at ebarrett25@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, Mark Tannenbaum, Nick Baker

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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