U.S. economy to reopen in May and June and then ‘really bounce back,’ Mnuchin says, but others are thinking fall - MarketWatch | Canada News Media
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U.S. economy to reopen in May and June and then ‘really bounce back,’ Mnuchin says, but others are thinking fall – MarketWatch

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The U.S. economy will start to recover in the third quarter after a period of reopening in May and June, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Sunday.

“As we begin to reopen the economy in May and June, you’re going to see the economy really bounce back in July, August and September,” Mnuchin said in an interview on Fox News Sunday.

The trillions of dollars in government spending “will have a significant impact” to spur growth, he said. “As businesses begin to open, you’re going to see the demand side of the economy rebound.”

Mnuchin noted his forecast is based on assumptions about how the pandemic proceeds. Reopening will have to be balanced with increased testing, he said.

Many experts don’t think there will be a quick recovery, often referred to as a V-shaped rebound.

Billionaire Barry Diller, the chairman of Expedia Group,
EXPE,
+5.05%

scoffed at suggestions the economy would recover this summer.

“Anyone who thinks this economy is going to bounce…it can’t. The damage that is being done is catastrophic,” Diller said on CBC News’ “Face the Nation.”

He said early September would be a better guess of when employees start to return to work.

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, who also appeared on “Face the Nation,” was more upbeat about the outlook.

Moynihan said the bank’s internal data suggest consumer spending has” leveled off” in recent days and is starting to grow in certain areas after plunging in March and earlier this month.

“That actually provides some hope that, as the economy opens up in pieces and safely, you’ll see that consumer spending continue to grow which will help fuel the U.S. economy,” Moynihan said.

This is a result of the government’s stimulus programs, he said.

The Bank of America CEO noted that Diller was in the entertainment business, where the outlook was more depressed.

Moynihan said Bank of America
BAC,
+1.41%

economists think the economy will return to growth in the October-December period followed by double-digit growth in 2021.

The Treasury Secretary refused to get drawn into the brewing fight on Capitol Hill over the next round of coronavirus relief, which is expected to include billions of dollars of federal aid to states and local governments. Local governments have been caught in a vise in the wake of the pandemic, finding their health-care costs soaring and sales-tax revenue shrinking.

Senior Republicans in Congress, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, are reluctant to provide aid to states while Democrats, led by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, have called it their top priority.

Read:What’s behind Republican reluctance to assist states

State aid “will be something the Senate and House debate. It will be something we discuss on a bipartisan basis. The president has heard from governors. He wants to speak to governors. This is something we will consider,” Mnuchin said.

In a separate interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” program, Pelosi was asked about criticism from some, including New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, that Democrats missed an opportunity to pass state aid in the bill replenishing the Paycheck Protection Plan that Congress passed last week.

“Just calm down. We will have state and local, and we will have it in a very significant way,” Pelosi said.

She noted Republican senators were not unified on the issue, apparently referring to a report in the Washington Post that some GOP senators would back such spending while others worry about the rising federal debt.

Asked about concerns over the rapid increase in the federal budget deficit and debt-to-GDP levels, Mnuchin fell back on describing the fight against the coronavirus pandemic as a “war,” where concerns about spending and debt are secondary.

“The good news is that interest rates are extremely low,” he noted.

In the interview, Mnuchin also had pointed questions for how China handled the early days of the spread of the coronavirus.

President Donald Trump “wants to understand what China knew and when they knew it,” he said

“If they knew things that they didn’t turn over that could have stopped this, he will hold them accountable,” Mnuchin added.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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