U.S. economy to slow in first-quarter but reach pre-COVID-19 levels in a year: Reuters poll - The Journal Pioneer | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

U.S. economy to slow in first-quarter but reach pre-COVID-19 levels in a year: Reuters poll – The Journal Pioneer

Published

 on


By Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth will lose momentum this quarter and next but expand faster than previously thought after that, according to a Reuters poll of economists, a firm majority of whom now expect the economy to reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year.

While the near-term economic outlook has dimmed again as the U.S. remains the country worst-hit by the pandemic and on uncertainty about a fresh fiscal package, Wall Street stocks have reached record highs on positive vaccine news.

The growth outlook for the current and next quarters was lowered in the Nov. 30-Dec. 8 poll. A few respondents predicted a double-dip, expecting the economy to contract again next quarter.

“We expect the rising threat of COVID-19 to dampen growth through the first months of 2021, followed by further fiscal support from the prospective new administration in reaction to the rise in hospitalizations,” noted Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.

“Downside risks are dominated by COVID-19, and particularly if broader-than-expected shutdowns over the winter and a delayed vaccine come in the absence of further fiscal stimulus. In this scenario, a more drawn-out recovery would lead to longer stints of unemployment and greater permanent job loss.”

But in response to an additional question, nearly two-thirds of economists, or 43 of 69, said U.S. GDP would reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year. Twenty-one said within two years and five said two or more years.

That is a turnaround from the August poll findings, where none of the economists said “less than a year”, with nearly 60% predicting the economy would take two or more years to reach pre-pandemic levels.

The wider poll showed GDP for Q3 is expected to remain unrevised at a record 33.1% when the final data is issued later this month, after contracting at an annualized 31.4% pace in Q2, its sharpest decline in at least 73 years. It was expected to grow 4.0% this quarter, compared to 3.7% predicted previously.

For the first quarter the consensus was lowered to 2.5% growth from 3.0% last month, with nearly 11% of respondents predicting the economy would contract in Q1.

It was expected to expand 3.8%, 3.9% and 3.4% in the following quarters of 2021, compared to 3.5%, 3.5% and 3.2% predicted, respectively, last month.

The world’s largest economy was forecast to contract 3.6% this year then grow 3.9% next year and 3.1% in 2022.

Three-quarters of economists, or 44 of 58, who responded to a separate question said the outlook for the strength of the U.S. economic recovery had either stayed about the same or improved from last month.

“Near term (1-3 months) has worsened on the back of rising COVID-19 cases, which could lead to more containment measures being introduced at the expense of economic activity,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“However, political risks have subsided and vaccine roll-out news offer clear positives on the medium (3-6 months) term outlook.”

Still, only 21% of 43 economists in response to a separate question expected the Federal Reserve to announce more stimulus at its December meeting.

Thirteen economists said the Fed would change its policy next in 2021, six said in 2022 and 15 said 2023.

“If economic data deteriorate and there is no fiscal policy response in sight we may see the Federal Open Market Committee use its asset purchase program to provide additional monetary stimulus,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

“The FOMC could decide to indicate a longer horizon for asset purchases through forward guidance. However, if the Committee thinks the situation is more urgent, it could step up the pace of asset purchases or shift the composition to longer maturities.”

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar; Polling by Manjul Paul and Nagamani Lingappa; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Chizu Nomiyama)

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Business

A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

Published

 on

 

Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version