U.S. economy to slow in first-quarter but reach pre-COVID-19 levels in a year: Reuters poll - The Journal Pioneer | Canada News Media
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U.S. economy to slow in first-quarter but reach pre-COVID-19 levels in a year: Reuters poll – The Journal Pioneer

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By Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth will lose momentum this quarter and next but expand faster than previously thought after that, according to a Reuters poll of economists, a firm majority of whom now expect the economy to reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year.

While the near-term economic outlook has dimmed again as the U.S. remains the country worst-hit by the pandemic and on uncertainty about a fresh fiscal package, Wall Street stocks have reached record highs on positive vaccine news.

The growth outlook for the current and next quarters was lowered in the Nov. 30-Dec. 8 poll. A few respondents predicted a double-dip, expecting the economy to contract again next quarter.

“We expect the rising threat of COVID-19 to dampen growth through the first months of 2021, followed by further fiscal support from the prospective new administration in reaction to the rise in hospitalizations,” noted Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.

“Downside risks are dominated by COVID-19, and particularly if broader-than-expected shutdowns over the winter and a delayed vaccine come in the absence of further fiscal stimulus. In this scenario, a more drawn-out recovery would lead to longer stints of unemployment and greater permanent job loss.”

But in response to an additional question, nearly two-thirds of economists, or 43 of 69, said U.S. GDP would reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year. Twenty-one said within two years and five said two or more years.

That is a turnaround from the August poll findings, where none of the economists said “less than a year”, with nearly 60% predicting the economy would take two or more years to reach pre-pandemic levels.

The wider poll showed GDP for Q3 is expected to remain unrevised at a record 33.1% when the final data is issued later this month, after contracting at an annualized 31.4% pace in Q2, its sharpest decline in at least 73 years. It was expected to grow 4.0% this quarter, compared to 3.7% predicted previously.

For the first quarter the consensus was lowered to 2.5% growth from 3.0% last month, with nearly 11% of respondents predicting the economy would contract in Q1.

It was expected to expand 3.8%, 3.9% and 3.4% in the following quarters of 2021, compared to 3.5%, 3.5% and 3.2% predicted, respectively, last month.

The world’s largest economy was forecast to contract 3.6% this year then grow 3.9% next year and 3.1% in 2022.

Three-quarters of economists, or 44 of 58, who responded to a separate question said the outlook for the strength of the U.S. economic recovery had either stayed about the same or improved from last month.

“Near term (1-3 months) has worsened on the back of rising COVID-19 cases, which could lead to more containment measures being introduced at the expense of economic activity,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“However, political risks have subsided and vaccine roll-out news offer clear positives on the medium (3-6 months) term outlook.”

Still, only 21% of 43 economists in response to a separate question expected the Federal Reserve to announce more stimulus at its December meeting.

Thirteen economists said the Fed would change its policy next in 2021, six said in 2022 and 15 said 2023.

“If economic data deteriorate and there is no fiscal policy response in sight we may see the Federal Open Market Committee use its asset purchase program to provide additional monetary stimulus,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

“The FOMC could decide to indicate a longer horizon for asset purchases through forward guidance. However, if the Committee thinks the situation is more urgent, it could step up the pace of asset purchases or shift the composition to longer maturities.”

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar; Polling by Manjul Paul and Nagamani Lingappa; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Chizu Nomiyama)

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Florida State asks judge to rule on parts of suit against ACC, hoping for resolution without trial

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Florida State has asked a judge to decide key parts of its lawsuit against the Atlantic Coast Conference without a trial, hoping for a quicker resolution and path to a possible exit from the league.

Florida State requested a partial summary judgment from Circuit Judge John Cooper in a 574-page document filed earlier this week in Leon County, the Tallahassee-based school’s home court.

Florida State sued the ACC in December, challenging the validity of a contract that binds member schools to the conference and each other through media rights and claiming the league’s exit fees and penalties for withdrawal are exorbitant and unfair.

In its original compliant, Florida State said it would cost the school more than half a billion dollars to break the grant of rights and leave the ACC.

“The recently-produced 2016 ESPN agreements expose that the ACC has no rights to FSU home games played after it leaves the conference,” Florida State said in the filing.

Florida State is asking a judge to rule on the exit fees and for a summary judgment on its breach of contract claim, which says the conference broke its bylaws when it sued the school without first getting a majority vote from the entire league membership.

The case is one of four active right now involving the ACC and one of its members.

The ACC has sued Florida State in North Carolina, claiming the school is breaching a contract that it has signed twice in the last decade simply by challenging it.

The judge in Florida has already denied the ACC’s motion to dismiss or pause that case because the conference filed first in North Carolina. The conference appealed the Florida decision in a hearing earlier this week.

Clemson is also suing the ACC in South Carolina, trying to find an affordable potential exit, and the conference has countersued that school in North Carolina, too.

Florida State and the ACC completed court-mandated mediation last month without resolution.

The dispute is tied to the ACC’s long-term deal with ESPN, which runs through 2036, and leaves those schools lagging well behind competitors in the Southeastern Conference and Big Ten when it comes to conference-payout revenue.

Florida State has said the athletic department is in danger of falling behind by as much as $40 million annually by being in the ACC.

“Postponing the resolution of this question only compounds the expense and travesty,” the school said in the latest filing.

The ACC has implemented a bonus system called a success initiative that will reward schools for accomplishments on the field and court, but Florida State and Clemson are looking for more as two of the conference’s highest-profile brands and most successful football programs.

The ACC evenly distributes revenue from its broadcast deal, though new members California, Stanford and SMU receive a reduced and no distribution. That money is used to fund the pool for the success initiative.

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The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Australia’s Michael Matthews earns third win at Quebec cycling GP

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QUEBEC – Australian road cyclist Michael Matthews raced to victory at the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec on Friday.

Matthews earned a record third career victory in Quebec City. He was previously tied with Slovakia’s Peter Sagan with two wins.

The Jayco-AlUla rider won the fastest edition of the Quebec race on the UCI World Tour calendar.

Matthews, who claimed titles in 2018 and 2019, edged out Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay and France’s Rudy Molard in a thrilling sprint.

Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar, the heavy favourite, was unable to follow through with his attack launched just over two kilometres from the finish line. He finished in seventh place.

Pogacar will look to redeem himself at the Montreal cycling Grand Prix on Sunday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

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Whitecaps loan Herdman to CPL’s Cavalry, sign two reserve players to first-team deals

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VANCOUVER – The Vancouver Whitecaps have loaned midfielder Jay Herdman to Cavalry FC of the Canadian Premier League and rewarded two Whitecaps FC 2 players with MLS contracts.

Midfielder Jeevan Badwal signed as a homegrown player through 2027, with options for 2028 and 2029, while forward Nicolas Fleuriau Chateau signed an MLS contract through 2025, with club options for 2026 and 2027.

Both have been playing for the Whitecaps’ MLS Next Pro team along with the 20-year-old Herdman, the son of Toronto FC coach John Herdman.

The moves were made before Friday’s MLS and CPL roster freeze.

Born in New Zealand while his father was working for the New Zealand Football Federation, Jay Herdman was also part of the New Zealand soccer team at the Paris Olympics with three appearances including two starts. Herdman’s loan deal runs through the end of the CPL season.

“Jay is an important signing for us, who will provide another attacking option for the run-in,” Cavalry coach and GM Tommy Wheeldon Jr. said in a statement. “He’s a player that we’ve been tracking since we played against Whitecaps in pre-season and he has very good quality, with terrific energy and the ability to contribute to goals.

“With the recent injury to Mael Henry, Jay’s positional profile and age helps us with on-field options and minutes that count towards the league’s required 2,000 U-21 domestic minutes during the regular season.”

Badwal, an 18-year-old from suburban Surrey, is the 26th academy player to sign an MLS contract with the Whitecaps.

“Having joined our academy in 2019, Jeevan continues to progress through our club and takes every challenge in stride,” Whitecaps FC sporting director Axel Schuster said in a statement. “He is comfortable on the ball, positionally sound, and does the simple things very well. We are excited for Jeevan to make the next step in his young career.”

Badwal has made 19 appearances with Whitecaps 2 this season, scoring two goals and adding three assists. A Canadian youth international, he started all three matches for Canada at the 2023 FIFA U-17 World Cup

Badwal made his first-team debut off the bench in the first leg of the Canadian Championship semifinal against Pacific FC.

Chateau was originally selected 74th overall by the Whitecaps in the 2024 MLS SuperDraft after spending two years at St. John’s University.

The 22-year-old from Ottawa signed an MLS NEXT Pro contract with Whitecaps FC 2 in March. He leads Whitecaps FC 2 in goal-scoring this season with eight goals across 21 appearances (including eight starts).

“Nicolas leads MLS NEXT Pro in shots on target, has a very strong work rate and willpower. We are looking forward to seeing his growth as he builds on his young professional career,” said Schuster.

Chateau made his first-team debut as a second-half substitute at CF Montreal on July 6.

Herdman, who joined the Whitecaps academy as a 13-year-old, has made 19 appearances for Whitecaps FC 2 in 2024, scoring six goals and adding three assists. He made his MLS debut in April as a second-half substitute in a 2-0 victory at the Seattle Sounders.

Internationally, Herdman has represented New Zealand 29 times across the U-19, U-20, and U-23 sides. He was part of New Zealand’s squad at the 2023 FIFA U-20 World Cup, starting three matches at the tournament and scoring against Uzbekistan.

The Whitecaps host San Jose on Saturday while Cavalry entertains Atletico Ottawa on Sunday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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