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U.S. Fed expected to hike big again and open door to downshift

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The Federal Reserve looks set to deliver a fourth straight super-sized rate increase with Chair Jerome Powell repeating his resolute message on inflation and opening the door to a downshift — without necessarily pivoting yet.

The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday to a range of 3.75 to 4 per cent, the highest level since 2008 as the central bank extends its most aggressive tightening campaign since the 1980s.

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The decision will be announced at 2 p.m. in Washington and Powell will hold a press conference 30 minutes later. No fresh Fed forecasts are released at this meeting.

The central bank chief may emphasize policymakers remain steadfast in their inflation fight, while leaving options open for their gathering in mid-December, when markets are split between another big move or a shift to 50 basis points.

In July, his comments were wrongly interpreted by investors as a near-term policy pivot, with markets rallying in response, which eased financial conditions — making it harder for the Fed to curb prices. The chair may want to avoid a misstep, even if he suggests a shift to smaller increases at upcoming meetings.

“They may want to go slower just in the interest of financial stability,” said Julia Coronado, the founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC. “It’s a challenge for messaging because they don’t want to ease financial conditions significantly. They need tight financial conditions to keep cooling the economy off. So he doesn’t want to sound dovish, but he may want to go slower.”

Powell is trying to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years amid criticism he was slow to respond to rising prices last year. The hikes have roiled financial markets as investors worry the Fed could trigger a recession.

What Bloomberg Economics Says…

“Less certain than today’s rate-hike is how Fed Chair Powell will communicate a potential future downshift in the rate-hike pace — the degree of conviction, the risks around hike sizing, and implications for the terminal rate. We expect that he will present a 50-basis-point move as the base case and clarify that a downshift in the pace of rate hikes does not necessarily mean a lower terminal rate.”

— Anna Wong, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger (economists)

Wednesday’s expected move comes less than a week before midterm elections in the US, where Republicans have made high inflation a top issue and tried to pin blame on President Joe Biden and his party in Congress. Last week, two Democratic senators urged Powell to not cause unnecessary pain by raising rates too high.

Rates

Economists overwhelmingly predict the FOMC will raise 75 basis points, though one is looking for a step down to 50 basis points instead. Investors are close to fully pricing in 75 basis points at this Fed meeting, according to interest-rate futures markets.

The Bank of Canada unexpectedly slowed its pace of interest-rate hikes to a half point last week, though economists noted Canada’s higher share of adjustable-rate mortgages magnify the macroeconomic impact of the central bank’s rate increases.

What Top Banks Expect in November, December

  • Bank of America: 75 bps
  • Barclays: 75 bps, 75 bps
  • Citigroup: 75 bps, 50bps
  • Deutsche Bank: 75 bps, 75 bps
  • JPMorgan Chase: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Goldman Sachs: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Morgan Stanley: 75 bps, 50 bps
  • Wells Fargo: 75 bps, 50 bps

FOMC Statement

The statement is likely to retain its pledge of “ongoing increases” in interest rates, but that could be “modestly tweaked in some way to indicate that you’re closer to the end” of hikes, said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. One option would be to say “some further increases,” he said.

Press Conference

Powell since July has said it will be necessary to slow the pace of hikes at some point, and he’s likely to reiterate that, while leaving options open in December depending on incoming data. There will be two employment reports and two consumer-price reports before the Dec. 13-14 meeting.

“Markets want some indication that the Fed’s going to downshift,” said Drew Matus, chief market strategist with MetLife Investment Management. “This whole point of downshifting and moving to a slower pace of hikes is because you don’t know how much you have to do. So if it’s raining outside and I am driving, I am slowing down.”

Dissents

About a third of economists expect a dissent at the meeting. The most likely candidates would be Kansas City Fed President Esther George, who dissented in June in favor of a smaller hike, and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who dissented in March as a hawk.

Balance Sheet

The Fed is likely to reiterate its plans to shrink its massive balance sheet at a pace of US$1.1 trillion a year. Economists project that will bring the balance sheet to US$8.5 trillion by year end, dropping to US$6.7 trillion in December 2024.

No announcement is expected on sales of mortgage-backed securities.

Financial Stability

A report on financial stability is likely to be presented during the meeting, according to Nomura’s economists, and Powell may be asked whether the pace of hikes and potentially a US recession could cause international spillovers or disruptions in US credit markets. Three-month Treasury yields topped the 10-year yield last week, a so-called inversion that is often seen as a signal of a recession.

“We are not conditioned in the US to be dealing with a 4.5 per cent federal funds rate,” said Troy Ludtka, senior US economist at Natixis North America LLC, and there are concerns credit markets could be disrupted. “Internationally is even scarier. Europe looks terrible. China is not in recession, but I think it’s their slowest growth in a long, long time.”

Ethics Questions

Powell also could be asked about the latest incidents to raise questions about ethics standards at the central bank.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently revealed he violated central bank policy on financial transactions, leading Powell to ask the Fed’s inspector general to review his financial disclosures.

In a separate incident, Bullard last month attended a Citigroup-hosted meeting in Washington to which media were not invited and at which he discussed monetary policy. The St. Louis Fed has since said it would think differently about accepting such invitations in the future.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Amazon rejects plea to stop selling taxi roof signs as cab scam spreads across Canada

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After a long day at a work event in July, Kathryn Kozody was relieved when she spotted a car with a lit-up taxi sign.

She thought it was odd when the driver told her she’d have to pay her fare with a debit card. Still, a tired Kozody hopped in the car.

“I was like, ‘Fine, it’s kind of weird, but let’s go home,'” said Kozody, who lives in Calgary.

Nothing else seemed off — until the next day when she discovered that almost $2,000 was missing from her bank account. On top of that, her debit card had someone else’s name on it.

Kozody concluded that the taxi driver was a fraudster who, during the debit card transaction, recorded her PIN, stole her card and handed her back a fake.

“I started freaking out,” she said. “It’s terrifying when they have your debit card.”

It took Kozody about two weeks to get her money back from her bank, and she’s still rattled by the experience.

The day after taking what she thought was a ride in a taxi, Kathryn Kozody of Calgary found out someone had withdrawn almost $2,000 from her bank account. (James Young/CBC News)

“It really felt like an invasion of privacy and a violation to be a victim of this scam,” she said. “I really don’t want it to happen to anybody else.”

The taxi scam isn’t new; Toronto and Montreal have been seeing it for years. But the crime is becoming more widespread.

This summer, police in Calgary, Edmonton and at least five cities in southern Ontario, including Kingston and Ottawa, posted warnings online that they had received multiple reports of the scam.

Police and the Canadian Taxi Association say the fraudsters have a helping hand: with the click of a button, they can purchase a generic — but official looking — taxi roof sign on e-commerce sites like Amazon.

Edmonton Police posted this alert on Facebook in July, warning people about an ongoing taxi scam. The city’s police department says that it received about 10 reports of the scam that month. (Edmonton Police/Facebook )

The taxi association has asked Amazon, by far Canada’s most popular online shopping site, to stop making the roof signs so easily available.

“They do have a moral responsibility to at least sell the signs to individuals that are properly licensed,” said association president Marc André Way.

However, the U.S.-based company continues to sell the product to all customers.

“These lights are legal to sell in Canada,” Amazon told CBC News in an email.

‘Eye-popping’ numbers

The taxi scam has several variations but typically ends the same way: the victim pays with a debit card, then the scammer secretly steals it and hands the victim a similar but fake card. Shortly thereafter, money disappears from the victim’s account.

Ron Hansen, deputy chief of police in Sarnia, Ont., said his department received 12 reports of the scam in July, with one victim losing $9,900.

Toronto police report that since June 2023 the department has received 919 reports of the taxi scam, totalling $1.7 million in losses.

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. She learned $600 had been withdrawn from her account. (Craig Chivers/CBC)

The numbers are “eye-popping,” said Toronto police detective David Coffey.

“When they do get a victim, they are quick to go right into the bank accounts. They’re quick to empty them out.”

Jessica Chin King of Toronto said just 15 minutes after a recent cab ride, she got a suspicious activity alert from her bank. Turns out, $600 had been withdrawn from her account.

“I was like, ‘Wow, I can’t believe that just happened.’ I was in shock,” said Chin King, whose bank later reimbursed the cash.

She said she too was fooled by the taxi sign atop the car.

“I was in the car with somebody who wasn’t a taxi driver. Anything could have happened,” she said. “I was thankful that it was only my bank [account] that was compromised.”

Taxi light for $35 on Amazon

CBC News bought a taxi sign from Amazon for $35. It has a magnetic strip on the bottom, so it easily sticks to the top of a car.

To power the light, an attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, also known as the cigarette lighter outlet.

The taxi association says licensed taxi drivers typically get their roof signs from speciality suppliers, and they are hardwired to the car — not powered via the cigarette lighter.

“When you see that … it’s obvious that it’s not a legitimate taxi,” said Way, the association president.

Last month, Way sent Amazon a letter on behalf of the Canadian Taxi Association, asking it to stop selling the product.

“This is not a safe, practical way to distribute the trusted ‘Taxi’ signs,” he wrote.

CBC News ordered this $35 taxi sign on Amazon. The attached wire can be run through the driver’s window and plugged into the car’s auxiliary power outlet, while the lights for licensed drivers are hardwired into the vehicle. (Sophia Harris/CBC News)

But Amazon told Way — and CBC News — the signs will remain on its site, because the company isn’t breaking any rules.

“It’s going to be quite difficult, I think, for anyone to stop Amazon from selling a product that is perfectly legal to sell,” said Toronto criminal lawyer, Daniel Goldbloom. “It’s true that these taxi signs can be used to commit scams, but kitchen knives can be used to commit murder — and we don’t stop retailers from selling those.”

But Way isn’t giving up hope.

He says the taxi association also plans to ask other online retailers, such as Temu and eBay, to stop selling the taxi signs and will lobby provincial governments for legislation that regulates the sale of the product.

However, Coffey said he believes the best way to fight the taxi scam is to educate people about it.

“Never, never give another person control of your debit card,” the detective said.

Victims Chin King and Kozody also want to spread the word.

“The more people know, the less likely it is to happen again to somebody else,” Kozody said.

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