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U.S. Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged, sees tighter policy through 2024

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U.S. Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but signalled support for one more rate increase this year and fewer rate cuts next year as the American economy proves more resilient than expected.

Federal Open Market Committee members voted unanimously to hold the benchmark Federal Funds rate between 5.25-5.5 per cent, the highest level since 2001. This is the second time the Fed has held off raising interest rates this year, as it inches toward the end of its historic campaign of monetary policy tightening aimed at getting inflation under control.

At the same time, new projections released Wednesday show that the majority of FOMC members expect to increase interest rates one more time before the end of the year, either in November or December. They also expect to keep interest rates higher for a longer period of time, with fewer rate cuts pencilled in over the next two years compared with the previous projection, published in June.

“We’re in a position to proceed carefully at this point,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference after the rate announcement. “A year ago, we proceeded pretty quickly to get rates up. Now we’re fairly close, we think, to where we need to get. It’s just a question of reaching the right stance.”

This echoes the approach taken by the Bank of Canada, which held rates steady earlier this month. On Wednesday, the bank published a summary of the discussions that took place ahead of the Sept. 6 rate decision.

The document shows that Canada’s top central bankers remain unsure whether rates are high enough to get inflation under control, but are trying to balance the risks of doing too little to control prices against the risks of doing too much and unduly damaging the economy.

For the Fed, the big surprise has been the strength of the U.S. economy, which is holding up remarkably well in the face of the most aggressive rate-hike campaign in decades. Consumer spending remains robust and unemployment remains low, even though there have been some recent signs of cooling in the labour market.

The Fed’s new projection includes a significant upward revision to economic growth estimates, with FOMC members now expecting the U.S. economy to grow 2.1 per cent this year, compared with a 1-per-cent estimate in June. It also revised its projection for unemployment down, and now sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.1 per cent next year, from the current rate of 3.8 per cent, compared with an estimate of 4.5 per cent in June.

“It’s a good thing that the economy has been able to hold up under the tightening that we’ve done. It’s a good thing that the labour market is strong. … It just means we’ll have to do more in terms of monetary policy to get back to 2 per cent,” Mr. Powell said, pointing to the Fed’s goal of 2-per-cent inflation.

The new projection suggests the prospects of a soft landing have improved. That’s the idea that inflation could fall back to target without a significant recession or rise in unemployment. But the flipside of a more benign economic growth outlook is that interest rates will likely remain higher for longer.

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Markets digested that news on Wednesday, prompting a jump in bond yields and a selloff in the stock market. The S&P 500 index fell after the rate announcement, ending the trading day down 0.94 per cent.

“The Fed sent a hawkish signal with the summary of economic projections, doubling down on the ‘higher-for-longer’ theme,” Toronto-Dominion Bank economists, led by Oscar Munoz, the bank’s chief U.S. macro strategist, wrote in a note to clients.

“Talk is cheap at this point in the cycle and the Fed’s projections are just that – their own projections for the ‘soft landing’ going forward. If the data begins to turn more quickly than expected, the Fed can certainly cut rates earlier and more quickly than expected.”

Consumer-price-index inflation in the U.S. has fallen dramatically over the past year, after hitting a four-decade high of 9.1 per cent in June, 2022. CPI inflation did move up slightly in August, to 3.7 per cent from 3.2 per cent in July, as a result of rising gasoline prices. However, measures of core inflation, which capture underlying price pressures, have been trending downward in recent months.

The trend for core inflation is less positive in Canada. On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that the annual CPI inflation rate jumped to 4 per cent in August, from 3.3 per cent in July. More concerning for the Bank of Canada: The average of its two preferred measures of core inflation rose to 4 per cent, from 3.75 per cent the previous month.

The strength of core inflation remains a “significant concern” for the Bank of Canada, according to the summary of the rate-decision deliberations, published Wednesday. And it’s a key reason Canada’s central bank isn’t ruling out further interest-rate hikes.

The bank’s decision to hold its policy rate steady at 5 per cent on Sept. 6 was influenced by a string of data showing economic growth in Canada is stalling, consumers are pulling back on spending, and the labour market has begun to cool.

“Members agreed that data since their last decision had shown more clearly that demand was slowing, and excess demand was diminishing as monetary policy gained traction,” the summary said.

But Canada’s top central bankers were concerned that the decision to hit pause would be “misinterpreted as a sign that policy tightening had ended and that lower interest rates would follow.”

This happened in January, when the bank announced a “conditional pause” to rate increases after hiking eight times in 2022 and early 2023. Bond markets began pricing in interest-rate cuts for later in 2023, and real estate prices started to surge in the spring as homebuyers bet that mortgage rates had peaked. The Bank of Canada eventually came off the sidelines in June and hiked again in July after receiving stronger-than-expected data on consumer spending and the labour market.

This time around, the central bank wanted to be more clear that they could hike again, and that rate cuts remain a long way off.

“They agreed that they did not want to raise expectations of a near-term reduction in interest rates, given that they only considered keeping the policy rate where it is or raising it further,” the summary said.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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