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U.S. Federal Reserve signals three rate hikes in bid to slow inflation – The Globe and Mail

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Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they expect to raise interest rates three times next year as part of a major pivot by the U.S. central bank that signals a heightened focus on reining in inflation.

The projection was delivered on Wednesday alongside a monetary policy decision that accelerated the end of the Fed’s massive purchases of government assets, which it has used to hold down interest rates since the beginning of the pandemic. Fed officials decided to double the speed of central bank “tapering,” putting it on track to stop expanding its balance sheet by the end of March, and opening the door for interest-rate increases in the second quarter – much sooner than financial analysts had expected.

The developments move the Fed closer to the Bank of Canada in terms of tightening monetary policy, which has kept interest rates ultralow in both countries. Both central banks are dealing with a painful run-up in consumer prices that has forced them to backtrack on their description of high inflation as “transitory” and prepare for a rapid succession of rate hikes starting next year.

The annual rate of inflation in the United States hit 6.8 per cent in November, the fastest rise in consumer prices since 1982. Statistics Canada reported on Wednesday that Canadian inflation remained at 4.7 per cent in November, the same as the previous month.

The strength and persistence of consumer price growth has caught central bankers around the world by surprise and made their policies of maintaining rock-bottom rates look increasingly out of touch. The Bank of Canada has said it expects to start raising rates in the middle quarters of next year, perhaps as early as April.

“Inflation is elevated, it is well above our target, and we are not comfortable with where we are,” Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem said on Wednesday after a speech on the central bank’s new inflation-targeting framework.

To date, the Fed has been more patient than the Bank of Canada in tightening policy. That’s despite the fact that inflation is higher in the United States than in Canada and wages are rising rapidly, fuelling fears of wage-price spirals, in which rapid increases in wages and prices reinforce one another.

Canadian inflation hits 30-year high as Omicron threat looms

New Bank of Canada mandate could lead to more ‘patient’ raising of interest rates under certain circumstances, Macklem says

Wednesday’s announcement from the Fed suggests that both central banks will move at about the same pace with rate hikes, said Josh Nye, senior economist with the Royal Bank of Canada. This could make it easier for the Bank of Canada to raise rates – moving its rates well ahead of the Fed could push up the Canadian dollar, making exports less competitive.

“The Bank of Canada is always going to be cognizant of what the Fed’s doing with monetary policy in the U.S.,” Mr. Nye said. He added that longer-term interest rates in Canada are heavily influenced by rates in the United States, “so they’re certainly keeping an eye on what the Fed is doing.”

The Bank of Canada left its monetary policy unchanged last week. But comments by Mr. Macklem and deputy bank governor Toni Gravelle since then suggest the bank’s governing council is also mulling a change for its rate-decision meeting in January.

The bank ended its government bond-buying program, known as quantitative easing (QE), in October. It has maintained its forward guidance around the timing of interest-rate hikes, promising not to move until slack in the economy is absorbed, meaning it is operating at full potential. It sees this happening in the middle quarters of next year.

“We ended QE, so that is putting the focus on when we are going to remove our exceptional forward guidance and raise interest rates,” Mr. Macklem said on Wednesday. “We are looking at and assessing the diminishing degree of slack in the economy; and we’re focused on bringing inflation sustainably back to target.”

For the Fed and the Bank of Canada, a key factor arguing for rate hikes is the improving job market. Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the United States is “making rapid progress toward maximum employment.”

Mr. Macklem on Wednesday noted that “there’s no question, to a significant degree, the slack in the market has been absorbed.”

The employment rate in Canada is above the prepandemic level, and the unemployment rate, which hit 6 per cent in October, is within striking distance of where it was in February, 2020.

Mr. Nye of RBC said the Bank of Canada will likely either change its forward guidance in January to say it expects rate hikes in the first half of 2021, or drop the forward guidance altogether.

“The one thing that’s sort of giving me pause on whether the bank would actually make that shift in January is the uncertainty around Omicron,” he said.

Mr. Macklem’s speech on Wednesday was mostly about the central bank’s new mandate, which will guide monetary policy for the next five years. On Monday, the federal government directed the bank to continue aiming to keep inflation around 2 per cent, within a range of 1 per cent to 3 per cent, and to use its monetary policy to support “maximum sustainable employment” when “conditions warrant.”

Mr. Macklem suggested the time to focus on full employment is when inflation is under control and interest rates are more normal. This indicates the new language on employment would have little impact on the bank’s decisions to raise rates in the coming months.

“This new mandate does not change our current approach to monetary policy. Through this whole crisis, we’ve been very focused. Inflation has been our beacon,” he said.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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