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U.S. GDP shrinks for 2 quarters in a row, meeting bar of what some say is technical recession – CBC News

Published

8 months ago

July 28, 2022

Megan Johnson

The U.S. economy shrank from April through June for a second straight quarter, contracting at a 0.9 per cent annual pace and raising fears that the nation may be approaching a recession.

The decline that the Commerce Department reported Thursday in the gross domestic product — the broadest gauge of the economy — followed a 1.6 per cent annual drop from January through March. Consecutive quarters of falling GDP constitute one informal, though not definitive, indicator of a recession.

The report comes at a critical time. Consumers and businesses have been struggling under the weight of punishing inflation and higher borrowing costs. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by a sizable three-quarters of a point for a second straight time in its push to conquer the worst inflation outbreak in four decades.

The Fed is hoping to achieve a notoriously difficult “soft landing”: An economic slowdown that manages to rein in rocketing prices without triggering a recession.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell and many economists have said that while the economy is showing some weakening, they doubt it’s in recession. Many of them point, in particular, to a still-robust labour market, with 11 million job openings and an uncommonly low 3.6 per cent unemployment rate, to suggest that a recession, if one does occur, is still a ways off.

WATCH | Why June job numbers have some economists worried about a recession:

June job losses raise concern about recession

20 days ago

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Canada has reported the first job losses since January, raising concerns about a looming recession even with a growing economy.

Thursday’s first of three government estimates of GDP for the April-June quarter marks a drastic weakening from the 5.7 per cent growth the economy achieved last year. That was the fastest calendar-year expansion since 1984, reflecting how vigorously the economy roared back from the brief but brutal pandemic recession of 2020.

But since then, the combination of mounting prices and higher borrowing costs have taken a toll. The Labor Department’s consumer price index skyrocketed 9.1 per cent in June from a year earlier, a pace not matched since 1981. And despite widespread pay raises, prices are surging faster than wages. In June, average hourly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, slid 3.6 per cent from a year earlier, the 15th straight year-over-year drop.

The inflation surge and fear of a recession have eroded consumer confidence and stirred public anxiety about the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals. And with the November midterm elections nearing, Americans’ discontent has diminished President Joe Biden’s public approval ratings and increased the likelihood that the Democrats will lose control of the House and Senate.

Consumer spending is still growing. But Americans are losing confidence: Their assessment of economic conditions six months from now has reached its lowest point since 2013, according to the Conference Board, a research group.

Recession risks have been growing as the Fed’s policy-makers have pursued a campaign of rate hikes that will likely extend into 2023. The Fed’s hikes have already led to higher rates on credit cards and auto loans and to a doubling of the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage in the past year, to 5.5. Home sales, which are especially sensitive to interest rate changes, have tumbled.

Even with the economy recording a second straight quarter of negative GDP, many economists do not regard it as constituting a recession. The definition of recession that is most widely accepted is the one determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a group of economists whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

The committee assesses a range of factors before publicly declaring the death of an economic expansion and the birth of a recession — and it often does so well after the fact.

This week, Walmart, the nation’s largest retailer, lowered its profit outlook, saying that higher gas and food prices were forcing shoppers to spend less on many discretionary items, like new clothing.

Manufacturing is slowing, too. America’s factories have enjoyed 25 consecutive months of expansion, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index, though supply chain bottlenecks have made it hard for factories to fill orders.

But now, the factory boom is showing signs of strain. The ISM’s index dropped last month to its lowest level in two years. New orders declined. Factory hiring dropped for a second straight month.

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Liquidation sales at Nordstrom stores set to start Tuesday – Ottawa Citizen

Published

1 hour ago

March 20, 2023

Megan Johnson

The upscale department store chain has a store at the Rideau Centre mall as well as a Nordstrom Rack location at the Ottawa Train Yards shopping centre

The Canadian Press

Tara Deschamps

Published Mar 20, 2023 • 3 minute read

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Seattle-based luxury retailer Nordstrom, which entered Canada in 2014, has announced that its Canadian stores will close by the end of June, including the one at the Rideau Centre in Ottawa. Photo by Tony Caldwell /Postmedia

The liquidation sales at Nordstrom stores across Canada will begin Tuesday.

A spokesperson for Nordstrom confirmed the impending sales period Monday in an email to The Canadian Press, just after the Ontario Superior Court of Justice gave the U.S. retailer’s Canadian branch permission to start selling off its merchandise.

The upscale department store chain that primarily sells designer apparel, shoes and accessories has six Canadian stores and seven discount Nordstrom Rack locations, including its Rideau Centre location and a Nordstrom Rack at the Ottawa Train Yards shopping centre, which sells merchandise at discounted prices.

When Nordstrom announced the move in early March, it said it expected the Canadian stores to close by late June and 2,500 workers to lose their jobs.

The company initiated the exit from the market because chief executive Erik Nordstrom said, “despite our best efforts, we do not see a realistic path to profitability for the Canadian business.”

Nordstrom opened its first Canadian store in Calgary in 2014, followed by the Ottawa store at the Rideau Centre, which occupied the second and third levels of a former Sears location.

The Rideau Centre store has an alterations and tailoring shop and an energy drinks bar. Merchandise ranges from brand name to designer apparel, housewares, furnishings and beauty products, including brands such as Geox shoes, Gucci, Adidas and Adidas by Stella McCartney.

Later on came Nordstrom Rack, which made its Canadian debut in 2018 at Vaughan Mills, a mall north of Toronto. At the time, Nordstrom said as many as 15 more Rack locations could follow.

Nordstrom promised each Rack store would deliver savings of up to 70 per cent on apparel, accessories, home, beauty and travel items from 38 of the top 50 brands sold in its Canadian department stores.

Nordstrom had trouble with profitability because of its selection of products and the COVID-19 pandemic, said Tamara Szames, executive director and industry adviser of Canadian retail at the NPD Group research firm, a day after Nordstrom announced its exit.

“You would hear a lot of Canadian saying that the assortment wasn’t the same in Canada that it was in the U.S.,” she said.

She noticed Nordstrom started to shift its product mix away from some luxury brands around 2018 and saw it as a sign that the retailer was struggling to maintain its original vision and integrity.

The pandemic made matters worse because many stores were forced to temporarily close their doors to quell the virus and shoppers were less likely to need some of the items Nordstrom sells like dressy apparel because events had been cancelled.

Despite stores reopening and many sectors rebounding, Szames said the apparel business is the only industry NPD Group tracks that has yet to recover from the health crisis.

“The consumer has really been holding back in terms of spendâ¦within that industry.”

At a hearing at Osgoode Hall in Toronto, lawyer Jeremy Dacks, who represented Nordstrom, said the company has “worked hard to achieve a consensual path forward” with landlords, suppliers and a court-appointed monitor to find an orderly way to wind down the business.

The monitor, Alvarez & Marsal Canada, suggested five potential third-party liquidators and Nordstrom was approached by another five. The company decided to go with a joint venture comprised of Hilco Merchant Retail Solutions ULC and Gordon Brothers Canada, which were involved in the liquidation of Target, Sears and Forever 21 in Canada, Dacks said.

They will oversee the sale of merchandise, furniture, fixtures and equipment, but not goods from third parties, which removed products this past weekend, Dacks said. He added that all sales will be final and no returns will be allowed.

Lawyers for Nordstrom landlords Cadillac Fairview, Ivanhoe Cambridge, Oxford Properties Ltd. and First Capital Realty testified Monday that they were pleased with how “smoothly” and “organized” the process has gone so far.

In approving Dacks’ liquidation request, Chief Justice Geoffrey Morawetz agreed, saying Nordstrom is facing a “difficult time, but this process is unfolding in a very cooperative manner.”

Nordstrom required court approval to begin the liquidation because it is winding down its Canadian operations under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act, which helps insolvent businesses restructure or end operations in an orderly fashion.

With files from Joanne Laucius

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Canadian Banks' AT1s join selloff after Credit Suisse rescue – BNN Bloomberg

Published

2 hours ago

March 20, 2023

Megan Johnson

Canadian financial institutions’ regulator moved to reassure investors as the country’s riskiest bank debt joined a global selloff after the value of some Credit Suisse Group AG bonds was wiped out in the bank’s takeover by UBS Group AG.

Canada’s “capital regime preserves creditor hierarchy which helps to maintain financial stability,” the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions said in statement on its website.

Prices of Canadian limited recourse capital notes, known as LRCNs, fell between 2 cents and 5 cents on the dollar Monday before OSFI’s announcement, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be named. That has widened the spread on the notes by over 60 basis points compared with Friday’s levels, the people said. Specific levels vary depending on the security.

The bonds are another form of so-called additional tier 1 securities, issued by financial institutions and designed to act as a shock absorber in the system. They can be converted to equity to bolster a bank’s capital if it runs into trouble.

Over the weekend, Swiss regulators triggered a complete writedown of 16 billion francs (US$17.2 billion) of Credit Suisse’s AT1 bonds as part of the rescue plan for the venerable bank. While it wasn’t a surprise that the bonds were likely to take a loss, some investors in the instruments were shocked to be wiped out when Credit Suisse’s shareholders were not.

Under Canada’s capital regime “additional tier 1 and tier 2 capital instruments to be converted into common shares in a manner that respects the hierarchy of claims in liquidation,” said OSFI, referring to a situation in which a bank would reach non-viability status. “Such a conversion ensures that additional tier 1 and tier 2 holders are entitled to a more favorable economic outcome than existing common shareholders who would be the first to suffer losses.”

“Our view is that we don’t expect LRCNs would be wiped out before common equity,” said Furaz Ahmad, a Toronto-based corporate debt strategist at BMO Capital Markets. “OSFI has said that they would convert to common equity, since that is more consistent with traditional insolvency norms and respects the expectations of all stakeholders.”

Earlier Monday, European authorities sought to restore investor confidence in banks’ AT1s by publicly stating that they should only face losses after shareholders are fully written down. AT1s from UBS Group and Deutsche Bank AG fell by more than 10 cents earlier on Monday.

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Goldman Sachs No Longer Sees $100 Oil In 2023 – OilPrice.com

Published

3 hours ago

March 20, 2023

Megan Johnson

Goldman Sachs No Longer Sees $100 Oil In 2023 | OilPrice.com

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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By Irina Slav – Mar 20, 2023, 6:00 PM CDT

The tight supply narrative for 2023 is giving way to fears of a global economic slowdown.
Goldman Sachs no longer expects Brent to hit $100 in the second half of 2023.
CNBC: 41 percent of Americans are preparing for a recession.

Last week, oil prices booked their worst week since the start of the year, dropping off a cliff on renewed fears about the global economy after the collapse of two big U.S. banks and the near-collapse of Credit Suisse. While most price forecasts for the short term have been bullish because of pro-bullish oil fundamentals, now things are beginning to change. Tight supply, cited by virtually all forecasters as the main reason for oil price rise predictions, is giving way to fears of an economic slowdown that would dent demand and push prices lower.

Goldman Sachs has already revised its oil price forecast for the rest of the year. Previously expecting Brent to hit $100 in the second half, now the investment bank expects the international benchmark to only rise to $94 per barrel in the coming 12 months. For 2024, Goldman analysts see Brent crude at $97 per barrel.

“Oil prices have plunged despite the China demand boom given banking stress, recession fears, and an exodus of investor flows,” Goldman said in a note last week, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Historically, after such scarring events, positioning and prices recover only gradually, especially long-dated prices.”

Indeed, as far as events go, this one left a serious scar. Brent crude went from over $80 per barrel to less than $75 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate slipped down close to $65 per barrel. And this happened while authoritative forecasters such as the IEA and OPEC recently said they expect stronger demand growth than supply growth.

According to a recent CNBC report, 41 percent of Americans are preparing for a recession and with a good reason. Despite seemingly endless media debates about whether the world’s largest economy is in a recession already, about to enter a recession, or will manage to avoid a recession, forecasts are not looking optimistic.

“What you’re really seeing is a significant tightening of financial conditions. What the markets are saying is this increases risks of a recession and rightfully so,” Jim Caron, head of macro strategy for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, told CNBC earlier this month.

“Equities are down. Bond yields are down. I think another question is: it looks like we’re pricing in three rate cuts, does that happen? You can’t rule it out,” Caron said.

Reuters’s market analyst John Kemp went further in January when he forecast that one way or another, there will be a global recession, and debates are basically pointless.

Citing the cyclical nature of economic growth, Kemp foresaw two likely scenarios: one, in which recession begins earlier in the year as a natural consequence of events from the last couple of years, and another, in which central bank-pumped growth leads to even higher inflation, which then leads to a slowdown amid lower consumption.

Whichever scenario pans out, if any, it will lead to lower oil demand as recessions normally do. And lower demand will naturally depress oil prices, albeit temporarily. Because lower prices tend to stimulate demand, even amid a recession.

But there is one important detail here. The recession forecasts focus on the UK, the EU, the U.S., and Canada, as well as Australia. There is zero talk about a recession in China or India. Because China and India are going to grow this year, and as they grow, they will consume more oil. Meanwhile, the supply of crude is not going anywhere much further, it seems.

Be that as it may, just because oil demand from China and India, but most notably China, is seen higher this year, it does not mean higher oil prices are all but guaranteed. That’s because China’s economy is very export-oriented, and when consumer countries are in a recession or anything resembling it, these exports will suffer.

Forecasts for Chinese oil demand are still at record highs this year. OPEC said it expected demand from the world’s biggest importer to add more than 700,000 bpd this year for a total of 15.56 million bpd. The IEA, for its part, forecast that demand growth from China will push the oil market into a deficit in the second half of the year. Yet if a recession here or there dampens demand for everything coming out of China, all bets are off.

Because of oil’s fundamentals, all price forecasts are for higher prices towards the end of the year. But the basis for these forecasts came before the bank failures and the bailout of Credit Suisse.

Perhaps the baking panic will let go soon enough, and everything, including oil demand outlooks, will return to normal. Or perhaps the banking panic is a harbinger of worse things to come—things that will affect demand for everything, from crude oil to iPhones. Collectively known as a recession, these things may well prompt some very different oil price forecasts later in the year.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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