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U.S. researchers project Canada could see over 16,000 coronavirus deaths by January

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Researchers whose projections for the spread of the novel coronavirus have proven grimly accurate for the United States say the number of deaths in Canada could surge dramatically late this year, unless measures change.

The latest model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IMHE) at the University of Washington says Canada could see 16,214 deaths by Jan. 1. That number drops down to 12,053 fatalities if masks are universally worn by people across the country.

At least one expert has expressed doubt on the projections, however, saying they don’t take increased protections for vulnerable populations into account.

Since the coronavirus was first detected in Canada in January, 9,244 Canadians to date have died of complications from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus.

Dr. Ali Mokdad, a member of the IMHE’s senior management team and a professor of health metrics sciences, says the majority of the projected deaths will likely occur in December.

“That’s when the weather will get much colder and align with what we see during a pneumonia season,” he said.

“We’re seeing the same pattern over and over between COVID-19 and pneumonia in every country in the southern hemisphere, and now that’s heading in our direction.”

While coronavirus cases have been surging across Canada over the past week, with over 1,000 new cases being reported daily, deaths have stayed relatively flat for months. The country hasn’t reported over 20 daily deaths since July 3, and has seen fewer than 10 nearly every day in September.

But Mokdad says that could change if cases don’t start trending downward. He pointed to the U.S., where deaths began spiking over 1,000 a day roughly a month after cases surged this past summer.

“We saw this in other countries too: when you start opening schools and businesses, who’s more likely to go there? The younger generation,” he said.

“But they don’t live in a bubble. So they’ll start interacting with their parents and grandparents, and that’s when you’ll start to see a spike in mortality.”

According to the IMHE’s modelling, the majority of new deaths in Canada will be seen in Ontario and Quebec, which Mokdad says is based on population size. Ontario could rise from over 2,800 deaths now to 5,773 by Jan. 1 if measures stay the same. Quebec, which has seen more than 5,800 fatalities to date, is projected to jump to 9,825.

The death tolls in British Columbia and Alberta, the other two provinces currently driving up the national case numbers, are projected to remain relatively flat through the winter, according to the modelling.

Stephen Hoption Cann, an infectious disease expert at the University of British Columbia, thinks the IMHE’s model doesn’t reflect protections now in place for vulnerable people like the elderly, which could help limit any new deaths.

“We’re seeing more caution when it comes to long-term care residents, immune compromised people, where we’re limiting their interactions and keeping them protected,” he said.

That, coupled with the lower mortality rate among younger patients, makes Hoption Cann think the fall and winter could be less deadly than anticipated.

“So many people I talk to now who are in that older group, they simply don’t want to take the risk of opening themselves up to more interaction and the like,” he said. “So if that continues, we’ll be in a better place.”

What can bring the numbers down?

The IHME model has been considered a tentpole for data mappers during the pandemic and has been frequently cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force. It has also largely aligned with projections from the country’s Centres for Disease Control and Prevention.

After projecting earlier this year that the U.S. would surpass 200,000 deaths in September — which proved to be accurate — the model now estimates there could be up to 371,509 lives lost by Jan. 1.

Modelling released by the Public Health Agency of Canada on Tuesday only goes as far as early October, when it predicts Canada’s death toll will reach up to 9,300. However, it does suggest cases could see a major upswing through October into early November if measures aren’t tightened, potentially reaching up to 5,000 new cases daily


COVID-19 modelling released by the Public Health Agency of Canada on Sept. 22, 2020, shows Canada could see a major upswing to as high as 5,000 new cases daily by November if measures don’t change.


Public Health Agency of Canada

While Hoption Cann says that upswing could lead to a surge in deaths a month later, he again said the majority of deaths projected by the IMHE can be avoided.

“It all depends on what kind of further measures the provinces put in place to tamp down this rise in cases we’re seeing,” he said. “I don’t think we’ll see widespread business closures, but they’ll likely just ask people to kick what they’re already doing into a higher gear.”

Canada’s chief medical officer Dr. Theresa Tam said this week that the current surge can be countered if people “redouble their efforts with personal precautions.” In his address to the nation Wednesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau echoed that plea and said he’s confident Canadians can “bend the curve” together again.

Mokdad agreed, saying widespread mask-wearing could help control the spread of COVID-19.

“If 95 per cent of people in Canada wear a mask … you can avoid many of the cases and deaths that we are projecting,” he said.

“We can’t avoid new cases and deaths entirely, because we have schools and businesses open and the weather is getting colder. But masks can make a difference.”

He pointed to countries like Singapore and American states like Alabama where universal mask mandates have brought down infection rates.

Mokdad, who is watching the Canadian response to the pandemic from the U.S., says he admires the steps Ottawa has taken to help flatten the curve — particularly compared to the conflicting messages coming from Washington, D.C.

“(Canada) went by the book,” he said. “The lockdown early on, the testing, all was by the book. But the most important part that was done right was the cohesive national message given to the public.

“And Canadians have done a better job than Americans at following those messages.”

With 20 years of experience working at the CDC before joining the IMHE, he says it’s “frustrating” to watch the institution struggle to deliver a clear message to Americans.

“We have taught other countries how to handle situations like this one,” he said. “So when you’re watching people all over the world dealing with the pandemic, and you know that you taught them how to do it, and they have done what you taught them — why the people here are not doing the same thing here, and not being allowed to in some ways, it’s very frustrating.

“I’m a very optimistic guy. If we get our act together (in the United States), if we are united but not divided and let science dictate policies, then we can do what you guys have done.”

 

Source:- Global News

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Canucks winger Joshua to miss training camp following cancer diagnosis

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Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua has announced he’ll miss the start of training camp following surgery for testicular cancer.

Joshua said in a statement posted to social media by the team Tuesday that he felt a lump on one of his testicles this summer and later had surgery to successfully remove the tumour.

The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., said he plans on returning to play “as soon as possible” and is “working hard every day” to rejoin his teammates.

Joshua said the last several weeks have been “extremely challenging” and encouraged men to get checked regularly for testicular cancer.

The six-foot-three, 206-pound forward had a career-high 18 goals and 14 assists in 63 games for the Canucks last season and signed a new four-year, US$13-million deal with Vancouver at the end of June.

The Canucks are set to open their training camp in Penticton, B.C., on Thursday.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Toronto FC faces tough challenge as defending MLS champion Columbus comes to town

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TORONTO – Coach John Herdman isn’t putting too much stock in the fact that Toronto FC, since losing 4-0 in Columbus on July 6, has posted a better league record than the defending MLS champion.

Toronto, which beat visiting Austin 2-1 on Saturday, has won four of six league outings (4-2-0) since that setback at Lower.com Field while the Crew are 3-2-2.

“I don’t put any credence (in that),” said Herdman. “I just look at their squad and I salivate.”

Its easy to see why.

Columbus provided a league-high five players to the MLS all-star game on its home field in July in defenders Rudy Camacho and Steven Moreira, midfielder/captain Darlington Nagbe and forwards Cucho Hernandez and Diego Rossi.

Herdman sees layers of talent behind those all-stars.

“You see the way that they’re able to almost carbon-copy players. One comes in, another goes out … and they feel like they have a very similar profile. So to be able to take (Christian) Ramirez out and then bring (Canadian forward Jacen) Russell-Rowe in as a power forward, you look and go ‘Whoa, that’s good to have.'”

Federico Bernardeschi was Toronto’s lone all-star.

Columbus (14-5-8) comes to BMO Field on Wednesday in third place in the Eastern Conference, five places and 14 points ahead of Toronto (11-15-3). A playoff position already clinched, the Crew are hoping to leapfrog Cincinnati into second spot.

Coach Wilfried Nancy is looking forward to matching wits against Herdman.

“John is going to cook (up) something,” the Frenchman said with a belly laugh. “I know John. When we played a game in (the) pre-season, it wasn’t a pre-season game. It was a real game. But this is John. That’s why I like him, because he’s intense all the time.”

“They’re going to try to go all-in. They’re going to try to press us, they’re going to try to match us,” he added. “They know exactly the way we want to play so we’ll have to be clever and creative also.”

Herdman, meanwhile, says TFC will have to play error-free football.

While the Crew have failed to score in their last two outings (a 4-0 loss to visiting Seattle and 0-0 draw at rival FC Cincinnati), Toronto is hurting in its backline.

Nicksoen Gomis and Henry Wingo both left the Austin game early with hamstring injuries with Herdman estimating that Gomis will be out three to four weeks and Wingo 10-12 days. Veteran Kevin Long missed the Austin game after tweaking his hamstring in training and will undergo a fitness test ahead of the game.

Shane O’Neill, meanwhile, is suspended for yellow-card accumulation.

“A tricky situation,” said Herdman.

The Crew are a formidable opponent.

Columbus is tied with Real Salt Lake for fifth in the league in averaging 1.93 goals a game. Only Inter Miami (2.32), Portland Timbers (2.00), Los Angeles Galaxy (1.97) and Colorado Rapids (1.96) score more.

And Columbus boasts the league’s stingiest defence, conceding 1.04 goals a game. In contrast, the Toronto defence is tied for 22nd at 1.76 goals a game.

Toronto has conceded 51 goals, 23 more than Columbus, which has collected more points (7-3-4, 25 points) on the road in league play this season than Toronto has at home (7-7-0, 21 points).

Columbus’ roster also includes Canadian wingback Mo Farsi, who scored in the July win over Toronto.

The Columbus game is the first of four in an 11-day stretch that will see TFC club visit Colorado on Saturday, Vancouver on Sept. 25 in the Canadian Championship final and Chicago on Sept. 28. Toronto will then close out the regular season at home to the New York Red Bulls on Oct. 2 and Inter Miami on Oct. 5.

If the playoffs were to start tomorrow, Toronto would face ninth-place D.C. United in a wild-card matchup with the winner advancing to take on the East’s top seed — currently Miami — in the best-of-three first round.

Herdman would like a different scenario, with his eyes set on overtaking seventh-place Charlotte, which has two points and a game in hand over Toronto. The seventh-place side takes on No. 2 — currently Cincinnati — in the first round.

“We’re looking up, not down at the moment,” said Herdman. “It’s a good motivation for the lads to see that next level on the table. And it has been raised. If we’re able to get to that point, it means you’re not headed down to Miami in the heat, which is a tough place to go.”

“We’ll take whatever comes,” he added. “But the critical part is to get into these playoffs. That’s the key mission at the moment.”

Toronto has not made the post-season since 2020 when, after finishing second overall in the Supporters’ Shield standings, it was upset by Nashville after extra time at the first hurdle.

Follow @NeilMDavidson on X platform, formerly known as Twitter

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024

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Dolphins place Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve after latest concussion

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) — The Miami Dolphins placed Tua Tagovailoa on injured reserve Tuesday after the quarterback was diagnosed with his third concussion in two years.

Tagovailoa will be sidelined for at least four games. He will be eligible to return in Week 8 when the Dolphins host Arizona, but has to complete a series of tests and assessments required by the NFL’s concussion protocol before he can return to the field.

Tagovailoa was hurt last Thursday night when he collided with Buffalo defensive back Damar Hamlin. He ran for a first down and then initiated the contact by lowering his shoulder into Hamlin instead of sliding.

Players from both teams immediately motioned that Tagovailoa was hurt, and as he lay on the turf the quarterback exhibited some signs typically associated with a traumatic brain injury. He remained down on the field for a couple of minutes, got to his feet and walked to the sideline. The Dolphins diagnosed him with a concussion a few minutes later.

Coach Mike McDaniel has since cautioned against speculation on the quarterback’s future, stressing that he’s more focused on Tagovailoa getting healthy than what this latest concussion means for the team or for his career. Tagovailoa this week began the process of consulting neurologists about his health amid reports that he has no plans to retire.

Others around the NFL have offered their opinions on Tagovailoa’s future, including Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, who suggested he should retire.

“As far as Tua’s career is concerned, I think it’s an utmost priority of mine for Tua to speak on Tua’s career,” McDaniel said Monday. “Reports are reports. As far as I’m concerned, I’m just worried about the human being and where that’s at day to day. I’ll let Tua be the champion of his own career.”

McDaniel said Tagovailoa was at the team’s practice facility on Monday, greeting teammates and working with trainers.

“He’s doing good, man. Talked to him, he’s in good spirits,” receiver Jaylen Waddle said Monday. “(He’s) got the team in good spirits and everybody praying for him and hoping (for his) health.”

Head injuries have become a familiar, scary occurrence throughout Tagovailoa’s career.

In a September 2022 game against the Bills, he took a hit from linebacker Matt Milano, which caused him to slam to the ground. He appeared disoriented afterward and stumbled as he tried to get to his feet. He was cleared to return to that game and later said it was a back injury that caused the stumble. He was not diagnosed with a concussion.

Four days later, he got hit again during a Thursday night game at Cincinnati in which he was briefly knocked unconscious and was taken off the field on a stretcher. As he lay on the turf, his fingers appeared to display the “fencing response,” an involuntary motion typically associated with a brain injury. That time, he was placed in the concussion protocol.

The NFL and the players’ union made changes to the concussion protocol after those two incidents with Tagovailoa. Players who have problems with balance or stability are now prohibited from returning to a game.

Tagovailoa briefly considered retirement, but instead returned and studied ways to better protect himself on the field, including taking jiu-jitsu classes ahead of the 2023 season.

Tagovailoa has said he spoke to numerous neurologists who told him they did not believe he would be more susceptible to head injuries than any other player moving forward, nor would he be at a higher risk for chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), the brain disease associated with repeated blows to the head. He was also diagnosed with a concussion while in college at Alabama.

With Tagovailoa sidelined, the Dolphins will go with backup Skylar Thompson when play at Seattle on Sunday. Miami also signed Tyler Huntley off the Ravens’ practice squad.

___

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