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UCP climbs, particularly in Calgary as NDP dips in latest measure of Alberta political standings

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United Conservatives erase a slim preference the Alberta New Democrats enjoyed in Calgary during last May’s provincial election.

The ruling UCP’s political fortunes have risen since October, while those of the NDP have fallen, suggests a new poll.

That’s especially true in Calgary, where the UCP has erased a slim preference the NDP enjoyed in last May’s provincial election.

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An online Leger survey of 1,012 people conducted Jan. 12 to 15 shows provincewide support for Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government has increased by four points to 50 per cent since October, with few of those gains coming in rural areas.At the same time, the number of those saying they’d vote for the NDP has dropped by the same amount, to 43 per cent.

That shift has given the governing party a commanding lead in Calgary, topping the NDP by a 55 per cent to 41 per cent margin.

“From a political standpoint, the fact the UCP made some gains in Calgary will be good news to them given its electoral importance,” said Andrew Enns, a Leger executive vice-president.

In last May’s provincial election, the NDP won the Calgary vote by a one per cent difference, taking 14 of 26 seats.

The UCP’s rise in Calgary is as stunning as it is unexpected, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

“It’s very surprising, particularly with what’s happening with health care and affordability,” she said.

The poll results might emphasize the need for the NDP to choose a new leader from Calgary, to shore up standing in Alberta’s largest city, added Williams.

She said the province’s antagonism toward Ottawa might obscure those governing issues, said Williams.

“With a focus on a fight with Ottawa, maybe people will lose sight of those shortcomings, but I’d expect that more in the rural areas,” she said.

The poll shows the UCP hasn’t made noticeable gains in rural areas — where they command 56 per cent of the vote to the NDP’s 34 per cent.

The Offcial Opposition, which holds only one rural seat, saw its support outside Calgary and Edmonton fall by five per cent.

The poll was completed a day before Rachel Notley announced she’ll step down as NDP leader after nearly a decade in that role, and almost nine years after winning a provincial election that interrupted more than 40 years of Conservative rule.

 

Notley’s departure could hurt NDP fortunes

The departure of Notley — who’s generally more highly regarded in Alberta than her party — could further erode support for the NDP, said Enns.

“The NDP has to be alive to the risk of that, the Notley persona is viewed better than the NDP brand,” said Enns.

“You’ve got a strong Opposition going through some significant change and that’s not easy.”

The NDP likely faces some tough sledding without Notley, even leading up to the next election, said Williams.

“Can the NDP hold its support as a pragmatic alternative without a visionary leader like Rachel Notley?” she said.

But while the next provincial election is more than three years away, for the UCP the poll could indicate the success of its fight Ottawa strategy and how relevant it might be going forward, he said.

That’s especially important as the government tries to navigate more difficult terrain in areas such as health care and its unpopular Alberta pension plan campaign, said Enns.

“It’ll confirm they’re not on the wrong track, generally speaking, in governing, and part of that is they’re keeping the prime minister in their sights,” he said.

“They’ve backed off on the hard sell of the pension plan and upped the ante on the feds.”

The UCP government has been relentless in criticizing and opposing federal moves, particularly regarding energy, environmental and firearms issues.

Smith’s recent trip to Dubai for the COP28 climate change summit probably sold well with many Albertans, said Enns.

The poll showed the NDP doing slightly better in Edmonton compared to October, with 55 per cent of voter support compared to 40 per cent for the Conservatives.

Provincewide, the poll edges closer to the margin of electoral victory enjoyed by the UCP, which was 8.6 per cent.

The poll’s margin of error is no greater than plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20, for the total Alberta sample, says Leger.

 

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Anita Anand taking on transport portfolio after Pablo Rodriguez leaves cabinet

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GATINEAU, Que. – Treasury Board President Anita Anand will take on the additional role of transport minister this afternoon, after Pablo Rodriguez resigned from cabinet to run for the Quebec Liberal leadership.

A government source who was not authorized to speak publicly says Anand will be sworn in at a small ceremony at Rideau Hall.

Public Services and Procurement Minister Jean-Yves Duclos will become the government’s new Quebec lieutenant, but he is not expected to be at the ceremony because that is not an official role in cabinet.

Rodriguez announced this morning that he’s leaving cabinet and the federal Liberal caucus and will sit as an Independent member of Parliament until January.

That’s when the Quebec Liberal leadership race is set to officially begin.

Rodriguez says sitting as an Independent will allow him to focus on his own vision, but he plans to vote with the Liberals on a non-confidence motion next week.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs kicks off provincial election campaign

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs has called an election for Oct. 21, signalling the beginning of a 33-day campaign expected to focus on pocketbook issues and the government’s provocative approach to gender identity policies.

The 70-year-old Progressive Conservative leader, who is seeking a third term in office, has attracted national attention by requiring teachers to get parental consent before they can use the preferred names and pronouns of young students.

More recently, however, the former Irving Oil executive has tried to win over inflation-weary voters by promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent if re-elected.

At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three and there was one Independent and four vacancies.

J.P. Lewis, a political science professor at the University of New Brunswick, said the top three issues facing New Brunswickers are affordability, health care and education.

“Across many jurisdictions, affordability is the top concern — cost of living, housing prices, things like that,” he said.

Richard Saillant, an economist and former vice-president of Université de Moncton, said the Tories’ pledge to lower the HST represents a costly promise.

“I don’t think there’s that much room for that,” he said. “I’m not entirely clear that they can do so without producing a greater deficit.” Saillant also pointed to mounting pressures to invest more in health care, education and housing, all of which are facing increasing demands from a growing population.

Higgs’s main rivals are Liberal Leader Susan Holt and Green Party Leader David Coon. Both are focusing on economic and social issues.

Holt has promised to impose a rent cap and roll out a subsidized school food program. The Liberals also want to open at least 30 community health clinics over the next four years.

Coon has said a Green government would create an “electricity support program,” which would give families earning less than $70,000 annually about $25 per month to offset “unprecedented” rate increases.

Higgs first came to power in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — the first province to go to the polls after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a majority.

Since then, several well-known cabinet ministers and caucus members have stepped down after clashing with Higgs, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on policies that represent a hard shift to the right side of the political spectrum.

Lewis said the Progressive Conservatives are in the “midst of reinvention.”

“It appears he’s shaping the party now, really in the mould of his world views,” Lewis said. “Even though (Progressive Conservatives) have been down in the polls, I still think that they’re very competitive.”

Meanwhile, the legislature remained divided along linguistic lines. The Tories dominate in English-speaking ridings in central and southern parts of the province, while the Liberals held most French-speaking ridings in the north.

The drama within the party began in October 2022 when the province’s outspoken education minister, Dominic Cardy, resigned from cabinet, saying he could no longer tolerate the premier’s leadership style. In his resignation letter, Cardy cited controversial plans to reform French-language education. The government eventually stepped back those plans.

A series of resignations followed last year when the Higgs government announced changes to Policy 713, which now requires students under 16 who are exploring their gender identity to get their parents’ consent before teachers can use their preferred first names or pronouns — a reversal of the previous practice.

When several Tory lawmakers voted with the opposition to call for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from his cabinet. And a bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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