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UK Economy Bounced Back in After Holiday for Queen’s Funeral

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(Bloomberg) — The UK was given a moment of respite from the grim economic outlook in October as businesses recovered output lost following the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Gross domestic product rose 0.5% in October from September, which included an extra public holiday for the queen’s funeral and a period of national mourning. On a quarterly basis, GDP shrank 0.3% in the three months through October compared with the previous three-month period.

The figures will do little to lift the gloom hanging over an economy struggling with an historic cost-of-living crisis and possibly already in a lengthy recession.

“Stretched household incomes could see sustained falls in consumer spending over the coming year,” said Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK. “The bounce back in retail spending could be short-lived, which would mean another disappointing holiday season.”

The darkening outlook is expected to leave Bank of England policy makers deeply divided this week over how much to raise interest rates to fight inflation, which is at its highest level in 41 years. A half-point increase to 3.5% is expected by investors.

“While today’s figures show some growth, I want to be honest that there is a tough road ahead,” Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said. “Our plan has restored economic stability and will help drive down inflation next year, but also lay the foundations for long-term growth through continued record investment in new infrastructure, science and innovation.”

The monthly figures brought GDP 0.4% above its level in February 2020, the month before Covid-19 lockdowns started. On a quarterly basis, the economy remains smaller than it was before the pandemic started.

The Labour opposition seized on the quarterly figures to criticize Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s handling of the economy.

“Today’s numbers underline the failure of this Tory government to grow our economy, leaving us lagging behind on the global stage,” said Rachel Reeves, the Labour lawmaker who speaks on finances. “There is a choice. We can continue down the road of managed decline, falling behind our competitors, or we can draw on bold thinking to propel us forward.”

What Bloomberg Economics Says …

“The GDP rebound in October won’t be enough to prevent the economy from dodging a recession. A contraction over the fourth quarter looks inevitable, with the wave of strikes across the UK this month potentially amplifying the drop in activity. Still, today’s reading supports our view that the recession is unlikely to be that severe.”

—Ana Andrade, Blooberg Economics. Click for the REACT.

Services, manufacturing and construction all rose in October. Retail, wholesale trades and motor vehicle repair led the increase in services. There was a strong bounce in consumer-facing services like hospitality, which rose 1.2% after two consecutive months of decline.

A surge in coronavirus testing and vaccination boosted health, which made the second-biggest contribution to services. That follows a campaign to give booster shots to vulnerable people.

Travel services, including agencies, tour operators and other reservation services rebounded in October to 7.1% growth, after contracting by 9.7% in September.

“Business confidence has been falling dramatically as firms face into a wall of higher prices and energy bills, increased taxation, and rising borrowing costs,” said David Bharier, Head of Research at the British Chambers of Commerce. “The UK faces a long-term loss of competitiveness.”

The trade deficit excluding precious metals was little changed at around £20 billion. Imports fell as falling gas price cut the value of shipments from countries outside the European Union. Exports also fell marginally.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby and Mark Evans.

(Updates with tweaks in headline and first two paragraphs.)

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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