LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy recovered half of its COVID-19 crash by the end of July, helped by pubs and restaurants reopening from lockdown, but the bounce-back is expected to slow as job losses mount and Brexit tensions rise.
After shrinking by a record 20% in the second quarter, output expanded by 6.6% in July, slower than June’s monthly rate, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected growth of 6.7%.
Finance minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the figures but added that people were rightly worried about the coming months.
The economy remains 12% smaller than its level in February, before the pandemic hit Britain.
“July was probably the last of the big step-ups in activity and a full recovery probably won’t be achieved until early 2022,” Thomas Pugh, an economist with Capital Economics, said.
In response, the Bank of England was likely to ramp up its bond-buying stimulus programme by a third, or 250 billion pounds ($320 billion), Pugh said.
Britain’s economy suffered the sharpest second-quarter fall of any Group of Seven nation in the April-June period.
Hopes for a swift rebound have faded as businesses struggle to cope with social distancing rules and many people remain reluctant to travel on public transport or go to crowded places.
Tensions between London and Brussels over a post-Brexit trade deal are also mounting.
JOB PROTECTION CALLS
Furthermore, unemployment is expected to rise sharply because Sunak has ruled out extending his coronavirus job retention scheme which is due to expire at the end of October.
Parliament’s Treasury Committee urged Sunak to “carefully consider” a targeted extension of the scheme and other support measures, a call echoed by the head of a major employers group.
Carolyn Fairbairn, director general of the Confederation of British Industry said she was in “deep conversation” with the government about a more selective version of the job subsidies scheme to avoid long-term job losses.
“We need to make sure that other countries, for example Germany, France, Australia, others who have put in place schemes like this, don’t steal a march on our economy at this time,” she told Sky News.
The pound fell slightly against the dollar as Friday’s data showed output in Britain’s dominant services sector was a bit weaker than expected. [GBP/] Growth in the much smaller manufacturing and construction sectors exceeded forecasts.
Complicating the outlook, Brexit risks have resurfaced.
The European Union told Britain on Thursday it should scrap a plan to breach their divorce treaty, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government refused and pressed ahead with a draft law that could sink four years of talks.
“We are far from out of the woods yet,” Tom Stevenson, Investment Director, Personal Investing, at Fidelity International said, pointing to rising COVID-19 infections, new rules on social gatherings and the end of the furlough scheme.
($1 = 0.7803 pounds)
(Additional reporting by Paul Sandle; Editing by Toby Chopra)
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says retail sales rose 0.4 per cent to $66.6 billion in August, helped by higher new car sales.
The agency says sales were up in four of nine subsectors as sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers rose 3.5 per cent, boosted by a 4.3 per cent increase at new car dealers and a 2.1 per cent gain at used car dealers.
Core retail sales — which exclude gasoline stations and fuel vendors and motor vehicle and parts dealers — fell 0.4 per cent in August.
Sales at food and beverage retailers dropped 1.5 per cent, while furniture, home furnishings, electronics and appliances retailers fell 1.4 per cent.
In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.7 per cent in August.
Looking ahead, Statistics Canada says its advance estimate of retail sales for September points to a gain of 0.4 per cent for the month, though it cautioned the figure would be revised.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 25, 2024.
OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.
Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.
The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.
As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.
The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.
A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.
In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.
The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.
According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.
The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.
Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.
OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.
However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.
The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.
Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.
The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.
The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
