Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has profoundly changed geopolitics, reviving the threat of major power confrontations, while solidifying what had been a fraying Western alliance.
Likewise, this alters the dynamics of American politics, certainly in the short run, and conceivably a return to the cold War Politics that dominated much of American politics from the end of World War II to the fall of the Berlin Wall, and collapse of global communism.
“The crisis puts foreign policy, front-and-center in a way that it hasn’t been in a long time,” Geoff Garin, a leading Democratic pollster, told me. He noted that “our elections largely have been inward looking. The crisis certainly puts much more of a premium on foreign policy on the presidential level and raises questions about global security, America’s role in the world, and in relations with other countries.”
From 1945 through 1993 every president had military service, though Ronald Reagan was stateside during World War II. Since then, only one of five served in the military, George W. Bush in the National Guard.
The new realpolitik will include pressure for much higher defense spending and debates over the struggle between democratic and authoritarian regimes.
That’s a necessity for hard-pressed Democrats in this year’s midterm elections. The president’s job approval polling often is a leading indicator of his party’s fate in those contests.
On the other hand, the tough measures imposed against Russia, the world’s third largest energy producer will result in higher price increases, with consumers feeling it at the pump. Invariably, that hurts the party in power.
John Hamre, a former Deputy Defense Secretary and the CEO of the Center for Strategic International Studies, a leading foreign policy think tank, told me the invasion and China’s embrace of Russia is a “pivot point” that will shape politics in this century. He sees Russia as the junior partner in this alliance that “fundamentally has changed Europe’s understanding of their security.” The “significant changes” in the U.S. defense program, Hamre believes, will include military bases in Poland and Romania and a big boost in spending on NATO.
This likely will cause schisms in the Democratic ranks. Progressives have insisted that any increases in defense spending be accompanied by parallel increases in domestic spending. With the Russian invasion, this may no longer be politically tenable.
One example of how this crisis unravels defense plans was cited by Walter Pincus, the foremost journalistic expert on nuclear weapons. In his Cipher Brief column, he writes that it now will be “difficult” for Biden to follow through on his pledge to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in the American security strategy. That wouldn’t please some liberal Democrats, but Putin has made clear threats about using nuclear weapons.
On the surface, there may appear to be a bipartisan consensus, with all but the fringes of each party denouncing the Russian invasion and supporting Ukraine. I doubt it will endure.
Republicans last week were demanding the president ban oil imports from Russia. He did. Then they criticized him for higher energy prices.
Just like Democrats, Republicans will endure their own divides in the new national security environment. This is crystallized in the battle between Democracy and the rise of authoritarianism.
There are more than a handful of right-wing Republicans who have embraced Trump’s fondness for authoritarian leaders of culturally conservative, predominately white countries, including Russia before the invasion. Even last week Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-N.C.) was caught on video echoing the Moscow line that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinsky “is a thug,” and that government is “incredibly corrupt and is incredibly evil and has been pushing woke ideologies.” (After getting flak he tried to water down the attack.)
A particular favorite authoritarian of Trump and company is Hungary’s Viktor Orban. The Conservative Political Action Committee is planning to host a right-wing conference in Hungary this spring with Orban as the featured speaker.
Al Hunt is the former executive editor of Bloomberg News. He previously served as reporter, bureau chief and Washington editor for The Wall Street Journal. For almost a quarter century he wrote a column on politics for The Wall Street Journal, then The International New York Times and Bloomberg View. He hosts Politics War Room with James Carville. Follow him on Twitter @AlHuntDC.
OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says the NDP is caving to political pressure from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre when it comes to their stance on the consumer carbon price.
Trudeau says he believes Jagmeet Singh and the NDP care about the environment, but it’s “increasingly obvious” that they have “no idea” what to do about climate change.
On Thursday, Singh said the NDP is working on a plan that wouldn’t put the burden of fighting climate change on the backs of workers, but wouldn’t say if that plan would include a consumer carbon price.
Singh’s noncommittal position comes as the NDP tries to frame itself as a credible alternative to the Conservatives in the next federal election.
Poilievre responded to that by releasing a video, pointing out that the NDP has voted time and again in favour of the Liberals’ carbon price.
British Columbia Premier David Eby also changed his tune on Thursday, promising that a re-elected NDP government would scrap the long-standing carbon tax and shift the burden to “big polluters,” if the federal government dropped its requirements.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.
That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.
The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.
And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.
Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
