“War,” said British philosopher, mathematician and pacifist Bertrand Russell, “does not determine who is right — only who is left.”
Those words might be the perfect lens through which to view what probably lies ahead for Ukraine in the coming year as its troops dig in — and dig deep — along a front roughly 960 kilometres wide.
Beyond that front stretches a wasteland of occupied territory — the smoldering ruins of a months-long summer counteroffensive that fell short of allies’ hype and failed to dislodge the Russian Army from the 20 per cent of the country it occupies.
Behind it lies a war-weary population, growing domestic political anxiety and infighting, and international allies who have grown more capricious — even delinquent.
Whether it’s aid roadblocks in the U.S. Congress, empty arsenal shelves in Canada or the political tantrums pitched by hostile leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orban, the war that captured the world’s attention in 2022 has undeniably entered a dangerous new phase.
Dangerous — because solidarity among Ukraine’s allies has started to fray, while the domestic political consensus in Ukraine itself shows signs of unravelling.
Ukraine’s offensive has run out of road: expert
Ukraine’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations “has ended,” said Matthew Schmidt, an Eastern Europe expert at the University of New Haven, Connecticut.
“I don’t think it is believed amongst the political leadership yet,” he said. “It’s not an accepted fact.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has tied his country’s future — and his political future — to achieving the complete and total withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, which Russia has occupied since 2014.
Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, penned a frank assessment of the battlefield conditions for the Economist last fall — one that contrasted with Zelenskyy’s steadfast, optimistic public pronouncements.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reacts during his end-of-the-year news conference in Kyiv, Ukraine on Tuesday, Dec. 19, 2023. (Efrem Lukatsky/Associated Press)
Zaluzhnyi suggested the war was sliding toward a stalemate — a notion rejected by Zelenskyy even as the Ukrainian army began digging defensive positions along the line.
“Ukraine cannot continue to prosecute the war in the way that they have. It’s that simple,” said Schmidt, who estimated that without a new U.S. aid package, Ukraine’s resources to prosecute the war could dry up as early as March.
Once it became clear to Russian President Vladimir Putin that he couldn’t conquer all of Ukraine quickly, he switched to a strategy of grinding attrition, banking that the western solidarity which characterized the immediate post-invasion climate would crumble.
Putin seems to be counting on the attention deficit disorder that currently characterizes democracies in the West eating away at Ukraine’s support, and may be hoping for the return of Ukraine-skeptic Donald Trump to the White House.
Then-U.S. president Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands at the beginning of a meeting at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/The Associated Press)
The far-right in the United States and Canada has characterized continued economic and military support for the government in Kyiv as a waste of money and resources — something Schmidt described as a lie of omission.
“They haven’t told the full story,” he said. “And the lie by omission that they’ve been telling has created the false impression that this is an unjustified sum of money … that no matter what the sum is, it’s not helping American economic as well as security interest.”
Phillip Karber, president of the conservative-leaning U.S.-based Potomac Foundation and an expert in Russian war strategy and tactics, said every Ukrainian soldier holding the line represents one American or Canadian soldier who does not have to be deployed to Europe.
“The Russians have tried various ways to interdict Western munitions” going into Ukraine, he said. Those efforts have not been “successful,” he added, “but the U.S. Congress has done what the Russians couldn’t.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy walks with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of N.Y. and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky. during a visit to Capitol Hill in Washington on Dec. 12, 2023. (Susan Walsh/Associated Press)
On December 19, the Democratic and Republican leaders of the U.S. Senate said Washington will not be able to approve new aid for Ukraine before the year’s end, as the two sides continue to seek a compromise over border security — unquestionably a domestic political issue.
Zelenskyy flew to Washington in mid-December to lobby for the aid. The Ukrainian president said at his year-end news conference that he remains hopeful that the United States “will not betray” his besieged nation.
Will Ukraine have to seek a ceasefire?
But given the developments of the last six months, both Karber and Schmidt said it’s become much more likely that Ukraine will have to seek some kind of ceasefire or negotiated settlement in the coming year.
It’s not hard to see why. While Russia’s combat losses — estimated now at over 315,000 dead and wounded — have gotten all of the attention, the war has also bled the Ukrainian military both figuratively and literally.
It’s believed that Ukraine has suffered up to 250,000 military casualties, with many of the wounded facing debilitating injuries.
A soldier of Ukraine’s 3rd Separate Assault Brigade gives first aid to his 19-year-old wounded comrade near Bakhmut, the site of fierce battles with the Russian forces in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, on Monday, Sept. 4, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos)
More troubling still is the fact that Ukraine’s military now faces an uphill recruiting battle.
In his essay, Zaluzhnyi acknowledged that training and recruiting troops was becoming a serious challenge. As late as December 18, the general was complaining publicly about Zelenskky’s decision last summer to fire all of Ukraine’s regional military recruitment heads in a corruption crackdown.
“The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military,” Zaluzhnyi wrote in The Economist.
Karber said there are key battles to keep an eye on in the coming months, chief among them Avdiivka in the eastern Donetsk region.
Holding the line in Donetsk
The Russians have poured tens of thousands of troops into a major offensive to take the city in the well-known coal mining region. As of December 21, they had advanced to within two kilometres of the city at an estimated cost of nearly 20,000 casualties.
Holding that part of the line is crucial to Ukraine’s war effort, Karber said.
“If the Ukrainians get pushed off of their current positions that are holding, these guys are hooped,” he said.
“The way the terrain opens up into flat country, if the Russians push through and break out into that area, it is basically open all the way to the Dnipro River (in the west) and north.”
If the Russians try for a major breakthrough in the new year, Karber said, it likely will be in the late spring or early summer of 2024, when they’ve built up their depleted forces again.
In an intelligence assessment dated December 20, the U.K. Ministry of Defence noted that Ukraine had switched to a defensive posture along the line and had “mobilized efforts to improve its fortifications.” The report said the likelihood of a Russian breakthrough at the time was minimal.
“The front is characterized by stasis,” the assessment said.
Karber said the “horrific level of Russian casualties” is preventing major Russian gains.
Ukrainian soldier Pavlo “Zhulik” Sazonov, right, says good-bye to his comrade Andrii “Adam” Grinchenko of the 3rd Assault Brigade, who was injured in the battle for Andriivka, at a funeral ceremony at the cemetery in Shostka, Sumy region, Ukraine on Sept. 26, 2023. (Roman Hrytsyna/Associated Press)
He said Ukraine is likely to use a combination of long-range missiles, drones and special forces to turn parts of Crimea and the Kerch Strait and Black Sea regions into scorched-earth zones, with the aim of preventing Russia from resupplying and rebuilding its forces.
“The best hope is for Ukraine to get more long range missiles, ATACMS, to strangle Russian logistics,” Karber said.
In October, Ukraine revealed it had quietly received, and then successfully used, American Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) long-range weapons against Russia.
Ukraine has said it needs more ATACMS weapons and vast quantities of ammunition, especially NATO standard 155 millimetre artillery rounds.
Fair-weather allies?
It is here that political machinations in the U.S. Congress and allied dithering — such as Canada’s glacial progress on boosting ammunition production — have the potential to kneecap Ukraine, Karber said.
“Wars are won and lost on the margin,” he said, referring to an army’s ability to resupply itself. “And I hate to say it — [it’s] embarrassing as an American, humiliating as an American — but we’re the ones that hold that difference in that margin.”
Allies like the United States and Canada tripped over themselves to give the Ukrainians 155 millimetre howitzers and modern main battle tanks, claiming the superior technology and firepower would help drive the Russians out.
But supplies of ammunition and spares for that equipment are now caught up in the funding fight in Washington.
“So it’s a double whammy because we’ve introduced these systems, they’re really important for the Ukrainians,” Karber said. And now, with dwindling stocks of ammunition, their use is being dramatically scaled back.
German army Leopard 2A6 main battle tanks are parked prior to the start of a rehearsal for the Armed Forces Day military parade in Vilnius, Lithuania on Nov. 24, 2023. (Mindaugas Kulbis/Associated Press)
Last fall, a CBC News investigation showed that high prices, corporate rivalries and a shortage of spare parts hobbled allies’ efforts to help Ukraine repair the Leopard 2 main battle tanks it received from several countries.
The German manufacturers of the 55-tonne tank were reluctant to share the intellectual property rights so that a world-wide shortage of spare parts could be alleviated.
Russia may have sustained heavy losses, but its ability to absorb them and reconstitute its forces worries the experts.
“The Russians’ ability at the moment [to resupply and rebuild key equipment] is potentially outstripping what the West is able to help supply Ukraine,” said Dave Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, an Ottawa-based think-tank that occasionally hosts events sponsored by defence contractors.
Canada slow to resupply
Addressing the House of Commons defence committee in mid-December, Perry said he was particularly alarmed by the slow pace at which Canada was ramping up production of artillery shells.
Canada produces 3,000 of the 155 millimetre artillery shells per month under a framework called the Munitions Supply Program. It’s a standing arrangement with five private sector companies — the most prominent being General Dynamics Ordnance and Tactical Systems Canada (GDOT-C) — to maintain stocks and provide surge capacity in times of crisis.
The federal government has been negotiating with the companies to boost production.
“I think it seems to me like there’s been a lack of urgency and focus on this issue,” Perry testified
“Notwithstanding the technical expertise involved in this, in the grand scheme of things, artillery shells are not complicated compared to air defence systems, or many of the other pieces of equipment that Ukraine needs.”
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
