(Bloomberg) — The bank holiday to celebrate Queen Elizabeth II’s 70 years on the throne may tip the UK economy into contraction but save it from the technical definition of a recession.
The day off on Thursday to mark the jubilee will shave a half percentage point off gross domestic product in the second quarter, according to an estimate by Bloomberg Economics based on previous holidays.
That, along with reduced output from the health care sector as the government’s coronavirus test and trace program winds down, would be the UK economy will shrink 0.4% in the quarter in the BI forecast by economist Dan Hanson. The lost output from offices and factories closing for the day would likely accrue to the following months, preventing the economy from shrinking from two consecutive quarters.
The estimate highlights Britain’s bumpy recovery from coronavirus lockdowns. While output surged strongly after restaurants and bars were allowed to reopen, consumer confidence has plunged in recent months with a surge in energy bills and taxes.
That and inflation at a 40-year high threatens to drag the economy into stagnation or even an outright decline. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak’s announcement last week of £15 billion ($19 billion) of extra support for households will cushion the blow.
There is also a risk that people take an additional one or two days’ leave to complement the long weekend. Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at Federated Hermes Ltd., said that “hangover effect” may give rise to further output losses.
At least, that’s the hope of Jeannie Stachniewska, 30, a solicitor whose wedding plans were a “pandemic casualty” in 2020 and 2021. She finally plans to tie the knot on Friday, June 3.
“Thursday is our set up day so it’s great that it’s a bank holiday because no one will have to take annual leave to help us out,” she said. “Everyone will be very hungover on both the Monday and the Tuesday.”
Hanson estimates the economy will grow 0.3% in the third quarter, meaning the UK will avoid two quarters of negative growth.
Campaigners led by Brendan Cox, co-founder of the Together Coalition, have called on the government to make the bank holiday an annual fixture. Dall’Angelo said that other European countries already have more national holidays than the UK so the comparative loss of output would be minimal.
“Extra time off can help people to have clearer minds so in the bigger picture, this could have economic benefits,” she said.
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
