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Under-the-radar bullish trend suggests the global economy is turning a corner – CNBC

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5 years ago

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Economic forecaster Lakshman Achuthan is seeing signs of a global growth comeback in an under-the-radar trend.

He’s finding industrial commodity prices are starting to firm up and about to turn positive — a signal that demand is returning.

“It’s less negative. It’s not even positive inflation yet. But the vector here is everything, especially in the context of the global industrial growth upturn,” the Economic Cycle Research Institute co-founder told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Wednesday.

He’s building his case on a chart of commodity price inflation. It tracks industrial materials including oil, steel, iron, nickel, textiles and some building supplies.

“You see that long suffering of the decline in global industrial commodity inflation over the last couple of years,” said Achuthan. “That’s come to a close. That’s kind of a game changer if you’re a global industrial company.”

He began noticing sluggishness in commodity industrial prices in the first half of last year.

Now, he’s close to calling a rebound not only in the global economy, but in the United States, too.

According to Achuthan, a U.S. manufacturing comeback could be as little as a month or two away following five straight months of contraction.

“In fairly short order, those things are going to start to bottom out,” he added.

On a bigger scale, Achuthan’s call also signals he’s turning more positive overall. He has been in the global economic slowdown camp since June 2018.

However, the turnaround may come with an unwelcome side effect. Achuthan warns that consumer spending, which he believes is decelerating, could face more pressure.

“If we stick with commodity price inflation for a second, for consumers the main one is going to be energy,” Achuthan said. “That is on the margin a negative and is going to crimp discretionary spending.”

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S&P/TSX composite gains almost 100 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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September 13, 2024

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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September 13, 2024

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 150 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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September 12, 2024

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.

The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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