OTTAWA – The Canadian economy added more jobs than expected in August, but most forecasters still believe the Bank of Canada is done raising interest rates as overall trends in the economy point to a slowdown.
Statistics Canada reported Friday the economy added 40,000 jobs last month – double the consensus expectation from economists.
The employment gain was just enough for the jobless rate to hold steady at 5.5 per cent, ending a three-month streak of rising unemployment.
“Canada’s job market has been following a sawtooth pattern this year, with a soft report generally followed by a snapback, and this was the month for a minor snapback,” said BMO chief economist Douglas Porter in a client note.
The decent job report bolsters financial markets’ expectations that rate cuts are not imminent.
Nevertheless, economists tend to focus more on trends in the economy, rather than one monthly report.
“You can never just solely focus on one of these employment numbers, because they are so volatile,” said Andrew Grantham, CIBC’s director of economics.
“The underlying trend that we’re seeing over the last three to six months is still one that employment is growing … but we are falling short of the growth in the population.”
The federal agency said Canada’s strong population growth means higher monthly job gains are needed to keep the unemployment rate steady.
The monthly labour force surveys show Canada’s population has been growing by an average of 81,000 people every month this year. That pace of growth requires job gains of about 50,000 each month to keep the unemployment rate steady, said Statistics Canada.
The report shows employment increased in professional, scientific and technical services as well as construction. Meanwhile, jobs were shed in education services and manufacturing.
Although the job gains last month mark a slight rebound in the labour market, details in the report suggest employment opportunities are not as plentiful today.
The federal agency said the job-changing rate – which represents the percentage of workers who switch jobs between months – has fallen from the peak reached in January 2022.
It’s also taking unemployed people more time to find a job compared to a year ago, as job vacancies fall.
The latest jobs reading comes days after the Bank of Canada opted to hold its key interest rate at five per cent, prompted by recent data that signaled the economy is taking a turn: the latest gross domestic product report showed the economy shrank in the second quarter.
The labour market had also eased in recent months as job vacancies fall and the unemployment rate sits higher.
But the central bank is still concerned about stubbornly high inflation and wants more confirmation that growth is stalling, including in the labour market.
Governor Tiff Macklem warned in a speech on Thursday that although rates didn’t rise this week, the central bank hasn’t ruled out more rate hikes down the line.
Friday’s job report did little to ease the central bank’s wage growth concerns, as wages rose 4.9 per cent on an annual basis, down from 5.0 per cent the previous month.
Grantham said it’s difficult to judge how much of the strong wage growth is driven by a tight labour market, versus worker demand for wage increases to reflect the runup in inflation.
“I think we’re still seeing a lot of that in terms of the wage figure, that this is a lot of pass through from last year’s strong inflation numbers, rather than necessarily, that the labour market is very, very tight at the moment,” Grantham said.
But that strong wage growth isn’t expected to last forever, given labour market conditions are expected to continue loosening.
CIBC is forecasting the unemployment rate will rise to about six per cent in the first quarter of 2024.
Grantham said a substantial rise in the unemployment rate is likely the benchmark for interest rate cuts.
“I do think that if we see an unemployment rate sustainably above six per cent, that’s when they would start to gradually cut interest rates. And we expect the first interest rate cuts to come in the second quarter of next year.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 8, 2023.
HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.
Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.
Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”
Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.
The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.
Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.
The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.
“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.
The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.
But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.
Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.
“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.
“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”
Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.
The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.
In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.
Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.
The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.
The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.
Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.
Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.
It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.
Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.
Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.
No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.
About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.
Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.
Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.
A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
