'Unfavourable,' 'disappointing': Economists react to December inflation | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

‘Unfavourable,’ ‘disappointing’: Economists react to December inflation

Published

 on

Canada’s annual headline inflation rate came in at 3.4 per cent in December while core inflation measures rose unexpectedly, leaving economists split on when to expect rate cuts.

“It’s a bit disappointing that we’re seeing a little more inflation pressure than anticipated,” Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, told BNN Bloomberg in a Tuesday interview following the release of Statistics Canada’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.

He noted that while the headline number was on par with economists’ expectations, the core trim and median measures, which are closely watched by the Bank of Canada, notched a surprise increase, instead of the expected decline.

Guatieri said the print demonstrates that there’s still a ways to go before the Bank of Canada feels confident that inflation will reach its two per cent target – reinforcing his team’s view that the central bank likely won’t cut rates until June.

Core trim and median inflation measures filter out components with more volatile price fluctuations.

Averaged together, they increased 3.65 per cent last month, from an upwardly revised 3.55 per cent a month earlier. That’s faster than the 3.35 per cent pace expected by economists.

ECONOMISTS SPLIT ON TIMING OF RATE CUT

Economists were surprised by the figures, but some were still calling for rate cuts earlier in the year.

The Bank of Canada’s trendsetting interest rate is currently set at five per cent, with most economists expecting rate cuts at some point in 2024.

“There wasn’t a lot of good news in the inflation print today,” said Randall Bartlett, senior director of Canadian economics with Desjardins Group.

“When you unpack what’s underneath the hood of this re-acceleration in headline inflation, you can see that underlying inflation, by a bunch of different measures, moved considerably higher.”

Despite the unfavourable data, Bartlett told BNN Bloomberg that he believes inflation will soon resume a downward trend, and he expects the Bank of Canada to cut rates in the spring.

“Today’s print hasn’t changed our call for a rate cut coming in April of this year,” he said in a television interview.

“We expect inflationary pressures to continue to trend lower and we think that the Canadian economy is likely to tip into a short and shallow recession in the first half of 2024, so those pieces combined, we think, are going to be sufficient to help the Bank of Canada justify moving rates lower.”

Tu Nguyen, economist with tax and consultancy firm RSM Canada, said the Bank of Canada “should begin slashing interest rates as early as April,” arguing that at this point, inflation is mostly being driven by shelter costs.

“Keeping rates higher for longer will not help. Shelter inflation occurs due to two factors; high rent growth due to the housing shortage and rising mortgage interest payments,” Nguyen said in a written statement.

“The housing shortage is a structural problem that will take many years to address … and high mortgage interest payments are directly caused by monetary policy.”

Rising rent prices are another inflationary factor impacting the CPI. They rose 7.7 per cent year-over-year in December following a 7.4 per cent increase in November, Statistics Canada said in their report, noting that high rates are keeping would-be-buyers in the rental market.

“Among other factors, a higher interest rate environment, which can create barriers to homeownership, put upward pressure on the index,” the agency said.

WAGE GROWTH, LAGGING PRODUCTIVITY 

Bartlett flagged that productivity in Canada is lagging behind wage growth, creating a significant source of inflationary pressure he predicted will be difficult to overcome.

“What we need to see is more investment across the board, whether it’s in digital technologies, whether it’s in manufacturing equipment, to start increasing Canada’s overall productivity,” he said.

On the other hand, increases to Canada’s population will likely continue to outpace hiring going forward, Bartlett said, increasing the unemployment rate and lessening wage pressures, which should help to ease inflation.

Guatieri acknowledged that there were some signs of slowing inflation in Tuesday’s CPI, with some adjusted measures “removing the sting” from an otherwise negative report.

The headline inflation rate with food and energy excluded saw a lower rate of inflation in December, Guatieri noted.

“(It’s) a bit of a mixed bag. Really it’ll come down to what the Bank Canada continues to pay the most attention to,” he said.

The Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision is scheduled for Jan. 24.

With files from Bloomberg News

 

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

Published

 on

 

VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version