It’s only the second time that confidence in the federal government’s ability to manage its debt has been officially reduced. So it’s a big deal.
It turns out Democrats’ unlimited appetite for spending and their refusal to address growing deficits isn’t sitting well with close watchers of our economy, and this should serve as a warning that inaction is no longer acceptable.
Despite the left’s attempt to dump all of the credit downgrade blame on Republicans (who worked to trim spending) for the debt ceiling showdown earlier this year, the report from Fitch Ratings spells out much bigger concerns about the U.S. fiscal outlook and the need for a spending overhaul.
The agency downgraded the nation’s credit rating from AAA to AA+. Although still a good rating, the lost confidence is noteworthy.
As Fitch states: “The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to ‘AA’ and ‘AAA’ rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.”
Jack Smith’s Trump indictment saves the day for Biden
This very bad news for the U.S. economy came at nearly the exact moment that Jack Smith, special counsel for Biden’s Justice Department, announced on Tuesday the latest indictment against former President Donald Trump for his alleged efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election.
As the debt increases, economic growth slows – and leads to even higher interest rates.
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“We’re at about $32 trillion now and we’re talking about $100 trillion over the next 30 years,” says Romina Boccia, director of budget and entitlement policy at the Cato Institute. “That’s crazy.”
If there’s an upside to the downgrade, it’s that Americans and our elected representatives may start paying more attention to the problem.
“I think that the Fitch downgrade brings needed attention to the fact that the debt deal that Congress struck at the end of May is completely inadequate for addressing the growth in the debt and the unsustainable spending path the United States government is on,” Boccia says.
All is not lost. There are some responsible lawmakers in Congress who are taking action on reining in the government’s spending addiction.
Last month, the Bipartisan Fiscal Forum launched publicly with the goal of identifying and addressing the largest drivers of the national debt. It’s led by U.S. Reps. Bill Huizenga, a Republican from Michigan, and Scott Peters, a California Democrat. The first action will be to form a fiscal commission that should take some of the partisanship out of budget cutting.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, told me in an email that the “group is a constructive step forward for lawmakers to tackle tough budget challenges.”
Cato’s Boccia also thinks such a commission is the best way to tackle the debt crisis. Democrats and Republicans are both to blame for long-term failures to address the debt – after all, no one wants to be the lawmaker accused of touching Social Security or Medicare while facing reelection.
The nation’s fiscal health truly affects us all – our own future and future generations. Americans should demand Congress and Biden start taking fiscal responsibility seriously.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
