Economy
US Dollar rises as oil drop hits crude-linked currencies
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(Revises throughout, updates prices, adds action in Canadian dollar, emerging markets)
By David Henry
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The dollar rose on Tuesday as interest rates in the United States moved in a tight range and a drop in oil prices hit crude-linked currencies.
After touching its lowest level in nearly seven weeks, the dollar index against major currencies rose 0.2% to 91.204 in the afternoon in New York.
The euro was flat at $1.2033 after rising nearly 0.4% on the outlook for increasing vaccinations. The British pound fell 0.4% to $1.3937 after it backed off from touching $1.40 and gaining 1% on Monday.
The dollar has fallen in April as U.S. bond yields retreated from the 14-month highs of 1.776% reached last month. The currency and yield declines have come as evidence mounted that the Federal Reserve would be slower about tightening monetary policy than it had appeared to the market, analysts said.
The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 1.57% after trading in a narrow range around 1.60%.
The currency and interest rate markets could be relatively calm for another few weeks as the Fed and the European Central Bank each take their time about adjusting their rate policies, said Mazen Issa, senior currency strategist at TD Securities.
“There really isn’t a strong catalyst in either direction this month to really break us out of ranges,” Issa said.
Some encouragement for the euro came from the announcement that the European Union has secured an additional 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by BioNTech and Pfizer.
The vaccination news suggests that the pace of Europe’s recovery from the pandemic will begin to catch up with the United States and its story of faster growth, Issa said.
“The FX market is moving away from this idea of full-on U.S. exceptionalism to being in a little bit more in limbo now,” he said.
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar edged up to 108.09 after having broken below 108 for the first time since March 5.
Oil-linked currencies took a hit when crude prices fell 1% on fears that surging coronavirus infections in India will bring restrictions and reduce demand for oil.
The Canadian dollar, which had been steady ahead of a Wednesday meeting of the Bank of Canada, then weakened the most in nearly two months to 1.2620 against the dollar, or 79.24 U.S. cents. The Norwegian crown retreated from its strongest levels against the dollar since 2018.
Mexico’s peso also weakened with oil after hovering around three-month highs on the strength of carry trades in high-yield emerging market currencies bolstered by recent low volatility.
Bitcoin rose 1% to $56,211 on Tuesday afternoon.
(Reporting by David Henry in New York. Additional reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft, Hideyuki Sano and Kevin Buckland; Editing by Larry King, Steve Orlofsky, Alex Richardson and Dan Grebler)
Economy
Biden's Hot Economy Stokes Currency Fears for the Rest of World – Bloomberg
As Joe Biden this week hailed America’s booming economy as the strongest in the world during a reelection campaign tour of battleground-state Pennsylvania, global finance chiefs convening in Washington had a different message: cool it.
The push-back from central bank governors and finance ministers gathering for the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings highlight how the sting from a surging US economy — manifested through high interest rates and a strong dollar — is ricocheting around the world by forcing other currencies lower and complicating plans to bring down borrowing costs.
Economy
Opinion: Higher capital gains taxes won't work as claimed, but will harm the economy – The Globe and Mail
Alex Whalen and Jake Fuss are analysts at the Fraser Institute.
Amid a federal budget riddled with red ink and tax hikes, the Trudeau government has increased capital gains taxes. The move will be disastrous for Canada’s growth prospects and its already-lagging investment climate, and to make matters worse, research suggests it won’t work as planned.
Currently, individuals and businesses who sell a capital asset in Canada incur capital gains taxes at a 50-per-cent inclusion rate, which means that 50 per cent of the gain in the asset’s value is subject to taxation at the individual or business’s marginal tax rate. The Trudeau government is raising this inclusion rate to 66.6 per cent for all businesses, trusts and individuals with capital gains over $250,000.
The problems with hiking capital gains taxes are numerous.
First, capital gains are taxed on a “realization” basis, which means the investor does not incur capital gains taxes until the asset is sold. According to empirical evidence, this creates a “lock-in” effect where investors have an incentive to keep their capital invested in a particular asset when they might otherwise sell.
For example, investors may delay selling capital assets because they anticipate a change in government and a reversal back to the previous inclusion rate. This means the Trudeau government is likely overestimating the potential revenue gains from its capital gains tax hike, given that individual investors will adjust the timing of their asset sales in response to the tax hike.
Second, the lock-in effect creates a drag on economic growth as it incentivizes investors to hold off selling their assets when they otherwise might, preventing capital from being deployed to its most productive use and therefore reducing growth.
Budget’s capital gains tax changes divide the small business community
And Canada’s growth prospects and investment climate have both been in decline. Canada currently faces the lowest growth prospects among all OECD countries in terms of GDP per person. Further, between 2014 and 2021, business investment (adjusted for inflation) in Canada declined by $43.7-billion. Hiking taxes on capital will make both pressing issues worse.
Contrary to the government’s framing – that this move only affects the wealthy – lagging business investment and slow growth affect all Canadians through lower incomes and living standards. Capital taxes are among the most economically damaging forms of taxation precisely because they reduce the incentive to innovate and invest. And while taxes on capital gains do raise revenue, the economic costs exceed the amount of tax collected.
Previous governments in Canada understood these facts. In the 2000 federal budget, then-finance minister Paul Martin said a “key factor contributing to the difficulty of raising capital by new startups is the fact that individuals who sell existing investments and reinvest in others must pay tax on any realized capital gains,” an explicit acknowledgment of the lock-in effect and costs of capital gains taxes. Further, that Liberal government reduced the capital gains inclusion rate, acknowledging the importance of a strong investment climate.
At a time when Canada badly needs to improve the incentives to invest, the Trudeau government’s 2024 budget has introduced a damaging tax hike. In delivering the budget, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland said “Canada, a growing country, needs to make investments in our country and in Canadians right now.” Individuals and businesses across the country likely agree on the importance of investment. Hiking capital gains taxes will achieve the exact opposite effect.
Economy
Nigeria's Economy, Once Africa's Biggest, Slips to Fourth Place – Bloomberg
Nigeria’s economy, which ranked as Africa’s largest in 2022, is set to slip to fourth place this year and Egypt, which held the top position in 2023, is projected to fall to second behind South Africa after a series of currency devaluations, International Monetary Fund forecasts show.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook estimates Nigeria’s gross domestic product at $253 billion based on current prices this year, lagging energy-rich Algeria at $267 billion, Egypt at $348 billion and South Africa at $373 billion.
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