US Drought Could Last A Century As We Now Enter A Megadrought, Study Finds - Forbes | Canada News Media
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US Drought Could Last A Century As We Now Enter A Megadrought, Study Finds – Forbes

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In the past 1,200 years, the United States has experienced four megadroughts lasting decades to centuries. Now, it increasingly appears that we have already begun another megadrought.

A recent study argues that the drought conditions experienced in the western US since 2000 are the start of a megadrought equal to the worst the US has experienced in 1,200+ years.

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The research team, who published their results in Science, used ancient trees to study their tree rings and reconstruct what climate looked like in the western US in the past. By using these tree rings, scientists can deduce the average soil moisture through time in a region. Using the plot of soil moisture, the team compared the historical megadroughts to what we’re experiencing today.

They found that we are now equal to the worst megadrought seen in the past 1,200 years. The naturally occurring megadrought has been historically tied to upheaval in the area and will certainly impact the daily lives of those living in the western US.

The drought conditions are tied to climate patterns called El Niño/La Niña. During La Niña years the tropical Pacific Ocean is unusually cool, storms veer farther north along the West Coast and drought conditions become commonplace in the western US.

While climate change is not the cause of the drought, the warming seen in the past century adds to the amount of evaporation in the already dry western US. Hotter air can hold more moisture and dries out soils faster than cooler air.

Thus, an increasingly hotter climate has led to an increase in the severity of the drought we’re witnessing. Average temperature in the western US has gone up 1.2°C since 2000. Scientists estimate the warming climate is responsible for half of the severity of the current drought conditions. In other words, if not for the warming climate this could be a regular drought and not a megadrought.

Since 2,000 the western US has experienced consistent drought conditions. The figure below shows the soil moisture levels since 800 A.D. Green bars represent abnormally wet periods whereas red bars represent abnormally dry periods.

The horizontal blue line at the bottom shows the average soil moisture levels from 2000-2018. You can see this matches 4 previous megadroughts in the past 1,200 years.

While the decades preceding the current 21st century were abnormally wet, it appears we are quickly entering a megadrought, a situation similar to the one seen in the mid-1100s.

Based on historical megadrought data, we can expect these drought conditions to last decades and up to 100 years.

The megadrought from 1575 to 1603 was the worst in the past 1,200 years and the current drought matches the severity. That drought lasted 28 years and was followed by an abnormally wet period once again.

The current drought conditions have led to massive drops in lake levels throughout the western US, most notably in Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

Drought conditions have led to increased wildfires in the western US and the need to rely on deep underground aquifers for water. As the drought conditions continue we will continue to draw down these aquifers that in some instances can take decades to centuries to refill.

The term megadrought is being debated in the scientific community and what exact conditions represent a megadrought. However, it is clear that by looking at a proxy for historical “wetness” that we are in a severe dry period within the western US.

Those living in the western US will likely have to cope with many more years of drought conditions before climate is reversed and we once again see average to wet conditions in the area.

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The body of a Ugandan Olympic athlete who was set on fire by her partner is received by family

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NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — The body of Ugandan Olympic athlete Rebecca Cheptegei — who died after being set on fire by her partner in Kenya — was received Friday by family and anti-femicide crusaders, ahead of her burial a day later.

Cheptegei’s family met with dozens of activists Friday who had marched to the Moi Teaching and Referral Hospital’s morgue in the western city of Eldoret while chanting anti-femicide slogans.

She is the fourth female athlete to have been killed by her partner in Kenya in yet another case of gender-based violence in recent years.

Viola Cheptoo, the founder of Tirop Angels – an organization that was formed in honor of athlete Agnes Tirop, who was stabbed to death in 2021, said stakeholders need to ensure this is the last death of an athlete due to gender-based violence.

“We are here to say that enough is enough, we are tired of burying our sisters due to GBV,” she said.

It was a somber mood at the morgue as athletes and family members viewed Cheptegei’s body which sustained 80% of burns after she was doused with gasoline by her partner Dickson Ndiema. Ndiema sustained 30% burns on his body and later succumbed.

Ndiema and Cheptegei were said to have quarreled over a piece of land that the athlete bought in Kenya, according to a report filed by the local chief.

Cheptegei competed in the women’s marathon at the Paris Olympics less than a month before the attack. She finished in 44th place.

Cheptegei’s father, Joseph, said that the body will make a brief stop at their home in the Endebess area before proceeding to Bukwo in eastern Uganda for a night vigil and burial on Saturday.

“We are in the final part of giving my daughter the last respect,” a visibly distraught Joseph said.

He told reporters last week that Ndiema was stalking and threatening Cheptegei and the family had informed police.

Kenya’s high rates of violence against women have prompted marches by ordinary citizens in towns and cities this year.

Four in 10 women or an estimated 41% of dating or married Kenyan women have experienced physical or sexual violence perpetrated by their current or most recent partner, according to the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey 2022.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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The ancient jar smashed by a 4-year-old is back on display at an Israeli museum after repair

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TEL AVIV, Israel (AP) — A rare Bronze-Era jar accidentally smashed by a 4-year-old visiting a museum was back on display Wednesday after restoration experts were able to carefully piece the artifact back together.

Last month, a family from northern Israel was visiting the museum when their youngest son tipped over the jar, which smashed into pieces.

Alex Geller, the boy’s father, said his son — the youngest of three — is exceptionally curious, and that the moment he heard the crash, “please let that not be my child” was the first thought that raced through his head.

The jar has been on display at the Hecht Museum in Haifa for 35 years. It was one of the only containers of its size and from that period still complete when it was discovered.

The Bronze Age jar is one of many artifacts exhibited out in the open, part of the Hecht Museum’s vision of letting visitors explore history without glass barriers, said Inbal Rivlin, the director of the museum, which is associated with Haifa University in northern Israel.

It was likely used to hold wine or oil, and dates back to between 2200 and 1500 B.C.

Rivlin and the museum decided to turn the moment, which captured international attention, into a teaching moment, inviting the Geller family back for a special visit and hands-on activity to illustrate the restoration process.

Rivlin added that the incident provided a welcome distraction from the ongoing war in Gaza. “Well, he’s just a kid. So I think that somehow it touches the heart of the people in Israel and around the world,“ said Rivlin.

Roee Shafir, a restoration expert at the museum, said the repairs would be fairly simple, as the pieces were from a single, complete jar. Archaeologists often face the more daunting task of sifting through piles of shards from multiple objects and trying to piece them together.

Experts used 3D technology, hi-resolution videos, and special glue to painstakingly reconstruct the large jar.

Less than two weeks after it broke, the jar went back on display at the museum. The gluing process left small hairline cracks, and a few pieces are missing, but the jar’s impressive size remains.

The only noticeable difference in the exhibit was a new sign reading “please don’t touch.”

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C. sets up a panel on bear deaths, will review conservation officer training

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VICTORIA – The British Columbia government is partnering with a bear welfare group to reduce the number of bears being euthanized in the province.

Nicholas Scapillati, executive director of Grizzly Bear Foundation, said Monday that it comes after months-long discussions with the province on how to protect bears, with the goal to give the animals a “better and second chance at life in the wild.”

Scapillati said what’s exciting about the project is that the government is open to working with outside experts and the public.

“So, they’ll be working through Indigenous knowledge and scientific understanding, bringing in the latest techniques and training expertise from leading experts,” he said in an interview.

B.C. government data show conservation officers destroyed 603 black bears and 23 grizzly bears in 2023, while 154 black bears were killed by officers in the first six months of this year.

Scapillati said the group will publish a report with recommendations by next spring, while an independent oversight committee will be set up to review all bear encounters with conservation officers to provide advice to the government.

Environment Minister George Heyman said in a statement that they are looking for new ways to ensure conservation officers “have the trust of the communities they serve,” and the panel will make recommendations to enhance officer training and improve policies.

Lesley Fox, with the wildlife protection group The Fur-Bearers, said they’ve been calling for such a committee for decades.

“This move demonstrates the government is listening,” said Fox. “I suspect, because of the impending election, their listening skills are potentially a little sharper than they normally are.”

Fox said the partnership came from “a place of long frustration” as provincial conservation officers kill more than 500 black bears every year on average, and the public is “no longer tolerating this kind of approach.”

“I think that the conservation officer service and the B.C. government are aware they need to change, and certainly the public has been asking for it,” said Fox.

Fox said there’s a lot of optimism about the new partnership, but, as with any government, there will likely be a lot of red tape to get through.

“I think speed is going to be important, whether or not the committee has the ability to make change and make change relatively quickly without having to study an issue to death, ” said Fox.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 9, 2024.

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