The US economy grew by less than forecast in the first three months of this year but inflation gathered pace, which could delay an interest rate cut.
Official figures revealed the economy expanded at an annualised rate of 1.6%, far below expectations and the growth seen in the final months of 2023.
Meanwhile, inflation, which measures the pace of price rises, has increased.
At the start of the year, experts had been forecasting a series of interest rate cuts in the US.
However, inflation is yet to fall back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, and on Thursday, figures from the US Department of Commerce showed that inflation increased by 3.4% in the first three months of 2024. This is compared to an increase of 1.8% in the final three months of 2023.
Raising interest rates makes borrowing – for things such as loans and mortgages – more expensive and theoretically is meant to encourage people to spend less. The idea is that this helps to bring inflation down by dampening demand.
However, US inflation has not fallen back as quickly as expected.
At the same time, economic growth – measured as gross domestic product (GDP) – has slowed from 3.4% growth in the final three months of last year to 1.6%. Economists had been expected it to decelerate but only to 2.4%.
Olu Sonola, head of US economic research at Fitch, the credit rating agency, said: “The hot inflation print is the real story in this report.
“If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out of reach.”
The key US interest rate is between 5.25% to 5.5% – the highest level in more than 20 years.
Stuart Cole, chief macro economist at Equiti Capital in London, said the US Federal Reserve, which sets interest rates, was “now finding itself caught between a rock and a hard place”.
“The growth numbers suggest monetary policy has worked its magic and the Fed’s foot on the monetary brake can be eased somewhat,” he said.
“But the inflation figures suggest otherwise, and potentially even point to the need for a further tightening.”
The 1.6% growth figure is the first estimate of GDP. A second reading, “based on more complete source data”, will be released on 30 May.
Nevertheless, the economy is a key issue as the US heads towards an election later this year.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.
She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.
The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.
The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.
On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.
Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.
Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.
The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.
The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.
The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.
The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.
Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.
Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.
In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
