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US Fed delivers big rate hikes, signals next one could be smaller

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It took note of the still-evolving impact that its rapid pace of rate hikes has set in motion, saying the target range of future hikes will be ‘appropriate’.

The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage points as it continues to battle the worst outbreak of inflation in 40 years, but is signalling that future increases in borrowing costs could be made in smaller steps to account for the “cumulative tightening of monetary policy” it has enacted so far.

The new language in the policy statement on Wednesday took note of the still-evolving impact that the Fed’s rapid pace of rate hikes has set in motion, and a desire to hone in on a level for the federal funds rate “sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time”.

“Ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate,” the Fed, the United States central bank, said at the end of its latest two-day policy meeting. While not foreclosing any future decision, officials said, “In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the [Federal Open Market] Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.”

Monetary policy refers to a set of tools used by a nation’s central bank to control the overall money supply in a country, including by using strategies such as setting interest rates.

The language acknowledges the broad debate that has emerged around the Fed’s policy tightening, its impact on the US and world economies, and the danger that continued large rate hikes could stress the financial system or trigger a recession.

While its recent rapid increases have been done in the name of moving “expeditiously” to catch up with inflation running at more than three times the Fed’s 2 percent target, the central bank is now entering a more nuanced phase – fine-tuning instead of “front-loading.”

The policy decision set the target federal funds rate in a range between 3.75 percent and 4 percent, the highest since early 2008. The US central bank has raised rates at its last six meetings beginning in March, marking the fastest round of rate increases since former Fed Chair Paul Volcker’s fight to control inflation in the 1970s and 1980s.

Done with ‘front-loading’

The Fed’s statement said officials remained “highly attentive to inflation risks,” opening the door to further hikes.

The economy, the Fed noted, appeared to be growing modestly, with still “robust” job gains and low unemployment.

Speaking at a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the next rate hike may be smaller in size.

“That time is coming and it may come as soon as the December meeting,” Powell said, while adding “no decision has been made” yet on what action to take.

The signal that the Fed appears done with that “front-loading” phase of its tightening ignited a broad rally in US stock and bond markets, but Powell’s remarks on rates likely going higher than previously estimated triggered a reversal.

At September’s meeting, the median estimate among policymakers pegged the peak fed funds rate at between 4.5 percent and 4.75 percent next year. Rate futures markets now imply about 50/50 odds of rates climbing to 5 percent or higher next year.

The S&P 500 index was about 1 percent lower, and the Nasdaq Composite slid by more than 1.5 percent.

Yields on US Treasury securities, which had dropped sharply after the Fed statement was released, turned higher.

The shift in the FOMC statement “took me a little by surprise,” said Derek Tang, an economist with forecasting firm LH Meyer. The Fed’s statement “was a lot more definite about a possible downshift than I thought it would be. I thought [Fed Chair Jerome Powell] would reserve a lot more judgement until December, but it seems like the committee did reach a consensus that they could downshift as early as December, depending on how the data go.”

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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