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US Fed still up in the air on speeding up rate hikes: Powell

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday reaffirmed his message of higher and potentially faster interest rate hikes, but emphasised that debate was still under way, with a decision hinging on data to be issued before the United States central bank’s policy meeting in two weeks.

“If – and I stress that no decision has been made on this – but if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” Powell told the US House of Representatives Financial Services Committee in testimony that added a cautionary clause to the otherwise identical message he delivered to a Senate committee on Tuesday.

He emphasised the point again in response to a question explicitly about the expected outcome of the March 21-22 meeting from Representative Patrick McHenry, the Republican chair of the committee.

“We have not made any decision,” Powell said, noting the Fed will be looking closely at upcoming jobs data on Friday and inflation data next week in deciding whether rate hikes need to shift back into a higher gear.

As happened in the session on Tuesday, lawmakers pressed Powell about the impact Fed policy was having on the economy and whether officials were risking recession in the drive to temper price increases.

Powell acknowledged once again that the Fed was wrong in initially thinking inflation was only the result of “transitory” factors that would ease on their own, and said he was surprised as well in how the labour market has behaved through the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

There have been “a bunch of firsts”, Powell said. “If we ever get this pitch again, we’ll know how to swing at it,” he noted.

Asked if he would pause interest rate hikes to avoid a recession, Powell responded “I don’t do ‘yes or no’ on ‘will I pause interest rate hikes?’ That’s a serious question. I can’t tell you because I don’t know all the facts.”

The Fed’s intense battle against inflation over the past year has reshaped financial markets, made home mortgages and other credit more costly, and aimed to cool the economy overall.

As of the start of the year it seemed to be working, with Powell at a February 1 news conference saying that a “disinflationary process” had taken hold.

Inflation data since then has been worse than expected, and revisions to prior months showed the Fed had made less progress than thought in returning inflation to its 2 percent target from current levels that are more than double that.

As Powell delivered his opening remarks, new job openings data showed little progress on one measure the Fed has focused on, with employers still holding 1.9 jobs open for each unemployed person, well above pre-pandemic norms.

Other aspects of the data, however, moved gradually in ways consistent with a softer job market. Overall openings dropped slightly, the rate at which workers were quitting continued a gradual decline, and the rate of layoffs increased.

Rates ‘higher than previously anticipated’

Powell’s message in his semi-annual testimony to Congress this week has reset expectations of where the Fed is heading, with his blunt assessment that “the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously anticipated” because inflation is not falling as fast as it seemed just a few weeks ago.

Rate futures markets now expect policymakers to approve a half-percentage-point rate hike at the upcoming meeting.

Officials will also update projections on how high rates will ultimately need to be increased in order to squelch inflation. In their last set of projections, in mid-December, the median estimate of the high point of the Fed’s benchmark overnight interest rate was between 5 percent and 5.25 percent, versus the current 4.5 percent to 4.75 percent range.

Where that ends up remains to be seen, with Powell even offering some rationale for the benefits of slower rate hikes.

After a year of rapid rate increases, the economy may still be adjusting, Powell said, an argument for allowing more data to accumulate.

“We know that slowing down the pace of rate hikes this year is a way for us to see more of those effects,” Powell said.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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