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US real estate market in ‘big trouble,’ expert warns

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As the Federal Reserve continues its hawkish market reset – which has contributed to a rise in interest and mortgage rates – real estate experts are sounding the alarm that “big trouble” lies ahead for the U.S. market.

“When you have a rise and increase in interest rates like we’ve had, that is a big problem for housing. Interest rates are like the mother’s milk of housing,” Pulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte told FOX Business’ Maria Bartiromo Thursday. “And if you cut it off, you’re in big trouble. And when you’ve had these massive increases in interest rates, it just puts a lot of things to a stop.”

“It’s a tale of two cities. I hate to relate it to politics, but the more red states, places like Florida, Texas, the office buildings are pretty busy. Business is booming. There’s more demand and supply,” Thor Equities CEO Joe Sitt said later on “Varney & Co.” “It’s more, I hate to say it, markets like ours here in New York, Chicago, San Francisco is a ghost town. San Francisco’s been destroyed.”

One of the nation’s largest homebuilders, KB Home, released its Q4 report Wednesday which indicated more signs of housing weakness. According to the report, KB Home saw a 68% cancelation rate on new construction projects.

Mortgage rates also increased last week, with the 30-year rate rising to 6.48% and the 15-year mortgage coming in at 5.73%, up from 5.68% the week prior. Higher mortgage rates continue to test homebuyer affordability, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).

The U.S. housing market has “big trouble” ahead, Pulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte said on “Mornings with Maria” Thursday, January 12, 2023.

 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned on Tuesday that raising interest rates to slow the economy “are not popular” in the short term, and could even create political opposition.

“Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with immeasurable benefits over time,” Powell said Tuesday in remarks prepared for delivery at a conference held by Sweden’s central bank. “But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.”

“It’s going to be tough,” Pulte spoke of the real estate market. “The [KB Home] cancelation rate… was through the roof, something like 68%, which is just enormous. Usually, that number is around 10, at most 20%. So I think we’ve got a tough road ahead this year, and I think you’ll start to see that in earnings toward the back half of this year and frankly, into next year. I think the earnings are going to continue to deteriorate.”

Property investor Sitt claimed it’s “going to take some time” for metropolitan areas to see a rebound in their commercial and personal housing markets.

“I think the cities are going to wake up and try to react,” Sitt said. “I would say San Francisco rents are probably down somewhere in the neighborhood of about 35%. No exaggeration. It’s dramatic what’s going on in that marketplace.”

Real estate investments are going where the money “feels comfortable,” according to Sitt, who predicted that Sunbelt states might experience less volatility this year due to a manufacturing job boom.

“I hate, again, relating to politics, but from a global place, the autocratic countries are doing the best. Singapore, Dubai, Monaco. Some people joke Florida and Texas is part of that,” the Thor Equities CEO said. “The world order is changing, particularly because of some of the conflict with China. So you’ve got this tremendous onshoring wave, and so all of the Southeast now is going to get their next economic benefit. I call it the battery belt, that battery belt market of all those jobs that are going to create for manufacturing, is going to have ripple effects there.”

Pulte contested that his firm has yet to find promising opportunities in the real estate sector so far this year under rising rate pressure.

“Not yet. It’s going to be pretty interesting,” Pulte said. “The M&A [mergers and acquisitions] environment in housing and building products is something to keep an eye on over the next six, 12, 18 months. It’s not time yet.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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