US stimulus to turbocharge world economy as Europe lags: OECD - BNN | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Economy

US stimulus to turbocharge world economy as Europe lags: OECD – BNN

Published

 on


A U.S. recovery turbocharged by President Joe Biden’s stimulus package will help power a faster than expected global economic upswing that risks leaving Europe behind, according to OECD forecasts.

The Paris-based organization said it now expects global output to rise above pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 after major economies showed greater resilience at the end of 2020, and as evidence of vaccine efficacy grows and governments add extra demand stimulus.

Upgrades Galore

Embedded Image

It raised its world growth forecast for 2021 to 5.6 per cent from 4.2 per cent and more than doubled its prediction for the U.S. to 6.5 per cent. OECD models indicate that Biden’s measures will raise output around 3 to 4 per cent on average in the first full year of the package and add a full percentage point to world economic output.

“This will not only boost the U.S. economy, but it will fuel global growth through increased demand in the U.S. and from the U.S. to the rest of the world,” OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone said at a presentation in Paris.

The sharp upward revisions show the enormous uncertainty surrounding the rebound from the worst economic slump in living memory. U.S. borrowing costs and oil prices have returned to pre-crisis levels in recent weeks, sending ripples across global markets.

As a consequence, rising inflation expectations are putting pressure on central banks as they seek to ensure a smooth recovery with prolonged loose policies.

Stronger Growth

Adding to the difficulties, there’s a growing divergence between sectors and geographies. As the U.S. surges ahead with a 2021 growth rate closer to China’s 7.8 per cent than the euro area’s 3.9 per cent, the OECD expects positive spillovers for some other economies, particularly Canada and Mexico.

But Europe is on a more gradual path with ongoing government restrictions and total discretionary stimulus set to be “relatively mild,” it said, slightly lowering the outlook for France and Italy for 2021.

The OECD forecasts for this year and next suggest that some European economies, including Italy, Spain and the U.K., won’t make up lost GDP in 2022.

Separately, euro-area GDP data on Tuesday showed the 19-member region contracted 0.7 per cent in the final three months of 2020, 0.1 percentage points more than initially reported.

Job Risks

The OECD said there are “sizable risks” to the outlook as faster vaccine deployment could further boost spending and confidence, but virus mutations could also thwart the battle against the pandemic, causing larger job losses and more business failures.

That makes producing and deploying vaccines the “top policy priority,” the OECD said. According to Boone, Europe is suffering from poor public health management and more fiscal stimulus without vaccinations would not be effective.

“Countries need to accelerate their vaccination programs to reopen faster their economies — if we are at war against a virus we need to get on a wartime footing,” Boone said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.

The uncertainty means fiscal policies will need to be contingent on the state of economies and more targeted. But the OECD also repeated a warning that governments must err on the side of caution and not tighten policies too fast, as happened in the wake of the global financial crisis.

Central banks should keep extraordinarily accommodative policies in place, even if headline inflation overshoots targets temporarily, the OECD said. For the Federal Reserve, that means it should use its new flexible average inflation-targeting framework to avoid immediate increases in rates, it said. It estimates the lasting impact on inflation from the stimulus plan will be “modest” beyond 2022.

–With assistance from Tom Keene, Lisa Abramowicz, Jonathan Ferro and Caroline Connan.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

Published

 on

 

OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

Published

 on

 

The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

Published

 on

 

As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version